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← Back to GamesDec 17, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Southern Miss by 12.6

Home Win Probability

Southern Miss 80%

Market (consensus)

Southern Miss -6.5

Edge: Southern Miss -6.5 (6.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 17, 2022

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
RiceRice
0321024
Southern MissSouthern Miss
71071438

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-317-317-1017-1724-2431-2438-24
Southern MissRice

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICSMRICTD675ydPUNT614ydPUNT514ydTO654ydPUNT826ydPUNT55ydTD159ydFG859ydFG875ydPUNT3-10ydTO216ydPUNT3-14ydEND1-1ydTD780ydTO2-1ydTD132ydPUNT517ydTD588ydTD467ydPUNT632ydTD598ydDOWNS961ydPUNT418ydPUNT3-14ydTO319ydPUNT3-4ydTD155ydTO722yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Rice and Southern Miss
StatisticRiceSouthern Miss
Passing20-399-19
Pass Yards302189
Rush Yards123361
Total Yards425550
Turnovers23
3rd Down5-152-8
Penalties10-727-70
Possession32:3825:38

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Rice
passing
AJ Padgett
19/37, 295 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Cameron Montgomery
7 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Isaiah Esdale
3 REC, 83 YDS, 2 TD
Southern Miss
passing
Trey Lowe III
7/16, 170 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Frank Gore Jr.
21 CAR, 329 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jakarius Caston
4 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 27 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Frank Gore Jr. run for 14 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.40

Trey Lowe sacked by Josh Pearcy for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 38

2nd & 14Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 19 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal Jones, broken up by Jordan Dunbar

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.97

Jakarius Caston 19 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Rice 28

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Cameron Montgomery run for no gain to the Rice 28

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.04

Uriah West run for 4 yds to the Rice 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 2 yds to the Rice 34

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Boden Groen

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah Esdale

4th & 8Punt+12 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 41 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 12 yds to the SoMis 37

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jakarius Caston run for 9 yds to the SoMis 46

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Trey Lowe pass complete to Latreal Jones for 5 yds to the Rice 48

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.42

Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 49

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Cole Cavallo

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the Rice 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Juma Otoviano run for 4 yds to the Rice 24

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

AJ Padgett run for 1 yd to the Rice 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.66

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 10 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

AJ Padgett pass complete to Juma Otoviano for 3 yds to the Rice 38

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.73

Quinton Jackson run for 11 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+25 ydsPPA -3.08

AJ Padgett pass complete to Jack Bradley for 25 yds Jack Bradley fumbled, forced by Lakevias Daniel, recovered by SoMis Malik Shorts

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 29

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.56

Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 47

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.49

Antavious Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 48

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 47 yds, downed at the Rice 1

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

RICE Penalty, False Start (Ethan Onianwa) to the Rice 1

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Uriah West run for 1 yd to the Rice 2

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.43

AJ Padgett run for 9 yds to the Rice 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Cameron Montgomery run for no gain to the Rice 11

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.16

AJ Padgett run for no gain to the Rice 11

3rd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.10

AJ Padgett sacked by Jay Stanley and Daylen Gill for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 6

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 53 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for no gain to the SoMis 41

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Lowe, Trey pass complete to Caston, Jakarius for 20 yards to the RICE39, PENALTY SOUMISS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SOUMISS36, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rushing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +5.86

Frank Gore Jr. 64 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Cameron Montgomery

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

RICE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Rice 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.39

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 20 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.57

Braylen Walker run for 20 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.57

AJ Padgett pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 20 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the SoMis 18

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Juma Otoviano run for 3 yds to the SoMis 15

3rd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

Juma Otoviano run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 16

4th & 6Field Goal Good+34 yds

Christian VanSickle 34 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +2.73

Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 55 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 1 yd to the Rice 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal Jones, broken up by Jordan Dunbar

3rd & 9Penalty+7 yds

Lowe, Trey pass incomplete to Cavallo, Cole, PENALTY RICE pass interference (Chamberlain, Treshawn) 7 yards to the RICE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS.

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Janari Dean run for no gain to the Rice 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the Rice 1

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete to Cole Cavallo

4th & 1Field Goal Good+18 yds

Briggs Bourgeois 18 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Cameron Montgomery run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 20

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Cameron Montgomery

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

AJ Padgett pass incomplete

4th & 15Penalty-5 yds

RICE Penalty, False Start (Geron Hargon) to the Rice 15

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 40 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for no gain to the SoMis 45

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.23

Trey Lowe run for 18 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.14

Trey Lowe sacked by Ikenna Enechukwu for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 39 Trey Lowe fumbled, forced by Ikenna Enechukwu, recovered by Rice Myron Morrison , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Isaiah Esdale run for 2 yds to the Rice 41

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

RICE Penalty, False Start (Isaac Klarkowski) to the Rice 36

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner, broken up by Natrone Brooks

3rd & 13Rush-11 ydsPPA -0.42

Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Rice 40 RICE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Shea Baker) to the Rice 25

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 39

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Lowe, Trey pass incomplete to Brownlee, Jason (Taylor, Gabe), PENALTY SOUMISS holding (Mays, Briason) 10 yards to the SOUMISS29, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.60

Janari Dean run for 9 yds to the SoMis 38

0th & 20End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Cameron Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Rice 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 8 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

AJ Padgett pass complete to Boden Groen for 10 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Rice 45

2nd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.77

AJ Padgett pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 18 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.33

Luke McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Isaiah Esdale 26 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 37

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-5 ydsPPA -1.42

Trey Lowe run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 32 Trey Lowe fumbled, forced by Izeya Floyd, recovered by Rice Ikenna Enechukwu

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Isaiah Esdale 32 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

RICE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Blake Boenisch) to the SoMis 36

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.85

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Trey Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee, broken up by Treshawn Chamberlain

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tyson Thompson at the Rice 12

1st & 10Rush+57 ydsPPA +3.89

Cameron Montgomery run for 57 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Boden Groen

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.26

AJ Padgett pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 11 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Bradley Rozner 18 Yd pass from AJ Padgett (Christian VanSickle Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Latreal Jones

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.70

Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 19 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Gore Jr., Frank pass incomplete to Brownlee, Jason, PENALTY RICE holding (Devones, Tre'shon) 10 yards to the RICE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUMISS.

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +0.56

Frank Gore Jr. run for 25 yds to the Rice 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Briason Mays) to the Rice 18

1st & 15Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.88

Tiaquelin Mims 18 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

AJ Padgett pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 6 yds to the Rice 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

AJ Padgett run for 1 yd to the Rice 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.11

AJ Padgett pass complete to Isaiah Esdale for 25 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah Esdale

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 41 yds, downed at the SoMis 2

1st & 10Rush+59 ydsPPA +3.83

Frank Gore Jr. run for 59 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the Rice 34

2nd & 5Penalty-15 yds

Lowe, Trey pass complete to Brownlee, Jason for 34 yards to the RICE0, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference (Brownlee, Jason) 15 yards to the RICE49, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the Rice 45

3rd & 16Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.45

Frank Gore Jr. run for 19 yds to the Rice 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Jason Brownlee 26 Yd pass from Trey Lowe (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

AJ Padgett pass complete to Boden Groen for 5 yds to the Rice 35

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Quinton Jackson run for 3 yds to the Rice 38

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Juma Otoviano run for 2 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.50

AJ Padgett sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 38

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

Padgett, AJ pass incomplete to Rozner, Bradley, PENALTY SOUMISS pass interference (Harrell, Camron) 15 yards to the SOUMISS47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RICE.

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.07

AJ Padgett pass complete to Quinton Jackson for 34 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

RICE Penalty, False Start (Ethan Onianwa) to the SoMis 18

3rd & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.49

AJ Padgett run for 9 yds to the SoMis 9

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.77

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Bradley Rozner, broken up by Eric Scott Jr.

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.82

Frank Gore Jr. run for 17 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.57

Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 27

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Demarcus Jones

4th & 9Punt+2 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 43 yds , Tyson Thompson returns for 2 yds to the Rice 32

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.59

AJ Padgett sacked by Daylen Gill for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 25

2nd & 17Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.27

AJ Padgett sacked by Santrell Latham and Daylen Gill for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 18

3rd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.02

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Boden Groen, broken up by Averie Habas

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Trey Lowe pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the Rice 48

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+17 ydsPPA -1.55

Frank Gore Jr. run for 17 yds to the Rice 31 Frank Gore Jr. fumbled, forced by Gabe Taylor, recovered by Rice George Nyakwol

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Quinton Jackson run for 1 yd to the Rice 32

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah Esdale, broken up by TQ Newsome

3rd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.41

AJ Padgett sacked by Daylen Gill for a loss of 5 yards to the Rice 27

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Conor Hunt punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 45

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +4.28

Frank Gore Jr. 55 Yd Run (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffrey

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.93

AJ Padgett pass complete to Boden Groen for 14 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-14 ydsPPA -2.40

AJ Padgett run for 1 yd to the Rice 40 RICE Penalty, Personal Foul (Luke McCaffrey) to the Rice 25

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ikenna Enechukwu) to the Rice 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Luke McCaffrey

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

AJ Padgett pass incomplete to Isaiah Esdale

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Shawqi Itraish pass complete to Luke McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Rice 47

4th & 3Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.68

Shawqi Itraish pass intercepted Jay Stanley return for no gain to the Rice 47

Situational Analysis

Rice

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
33 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
33%
12 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
60%
25 plays
100%
3 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th