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← Back to GamesDec 23, 2022Week 1
BaylorBaylor
15
-Final
30
Air ForceAir Force

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 8.9

Home Win Probability

Air Force 72%

Market (consensus)

Air Force +3.5

Edge: Air Force +3.5 (12.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 23, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
070815
Air ForceAir Force
9014730

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014286-09-016-723-730-730-15
Air ForceBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYPUNT31ydTD1555ydPUNT38ydFG538ydPUNT821ydPUNT413ydMISS530ydDOWNS1027ydTD647ydEND1-1ydTD583ydPUNT79ydPUNT36ydDOWNS48ydTD764ydDOWNS4-4ydTD742ydDOWNS526ydDOWNS1032ydTD485ydDOWNS820ydEND1-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and Air Force
StatisticBaylorAir Force
Passing11-234-7
Pass Yards188103
Rush Yards42276
Total Yards230379
Turnovers00
3rd Down0-118-16
Penalties5-262-20
Possession19:5640:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
11/23, 188 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Craig Williams
7 CAR, 25 YDS
receiving
Jaylen Ellis
1 REC, 57 YDS
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
4/7, 103 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brad Roberts
37 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Amari Terry
1 REC, 68 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 45

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 46

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 46

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.89

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the Bayl 42

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.86

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 46

3rd & 14Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.86

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Bayl 37

4th & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.41

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 8 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 34

1st & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Bayl 25

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 22

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.92

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Brad Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 22

1st & 15Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.91

Craig Williams run for 10 yds to the Bayl 32

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Josh Cameron run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 23 yds, downed at the AFA 42

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +1.88

John Lee Eldridge III run for 34 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 yds

Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the Bayl 43

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.37

Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 47

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 7

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.39

Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 20

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 20

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Amari Terry

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 30 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.24

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 31 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.57

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 20

3rd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.76

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for no gain to the AFA 20

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+38 yds

John Mayers 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 27

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.09

DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 32

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.18

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 48

4th & 1Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.30

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 47

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 43

1st & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47

2nd & 16Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the AFA 39

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Qualan Jones run for no gain to the AFA 39

4th & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.06

Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.27

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Shapen, Blake pass incomplete to Presley, Hal, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference (Mack II, Michael) 15 yards to the AIRFORCE8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 8 yds for a TD

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 17

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.27

John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 15

3rd & 12Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.60

Haaziq Daniels run for 15 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+68 ydsPPA +4.48

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 68 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben Sims

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.66

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.07

Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 34

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 39 yds, downed at the AFA 27

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 43

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 38

4th & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -1.83

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the AFA 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Haaziq Daniels run for 12 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47

2nd & 5Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.16

John Lee Eldridge III run for 20 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.34

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Richard Reese run for no gain to the Bayl 46

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49

4th & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.47

Blake Shapen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 42

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Bayl 35

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA -0.07

Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9

2nd & 7Penalty+5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaxon Player) to the Bayl 4

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.67

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard Reese

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.14

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.43

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Bayl 23

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 15

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.87

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+57 ydsPPA +3.86

Blake Shapen pass complete to Jaylen Ellis for 57 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.22

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 14 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 14 yds for a TD, (B. Shapen Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.86

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 34

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -2.85

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.34

Blake Shapen sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 23

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
18 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
11%
9 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
33%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
67%
3 plays
31%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
38%
13 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
25%
4 plays
100%
1 play