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← Back to GamesJan 2, 2023Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Illinois by 1.4

Home Win Probability

Illinois 54%

Market (consensus)

Illinois +3.5

Edge: Illinois +3.5 (4.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Jan 2, 2023

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
0301619
IllinoisIllinois
073010

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-310-310-1010-13
IllinoisMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLILLMSILLMSMSILLMSILLMSILLPUNT34ydPUNT35ydPUNT728ydMISS1046ydPUNT413ydPUNT32ydTO853ydPUNT735ydTO617ydTD1077ydFG855ydEND113ydPUNT30ydPUNT39ydFG1145ydMISS50ydTD841ydPUNT1132ydPUNT851ydPUNT517ydFG968ydUncategorized00yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Illinois
StatisticMississippi StateIllinois
Passing30-4522-33
Pass Yards274222
Rush Yards11435
Total Yards388257
Turnovers20
3rd Down6-143-11
Penalties6-553-25
Possession25:4231:41

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Will Rogers
29/44, 261 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Simeon Price
7 CAR, 68 YDS
receiving
Justin Robinson
7 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Illinois
passing
Tommy DeVito
22/33, 222 YDS
rushing
Reggie Love III
12 CAR, 53 YDS
receiving
Isaiah Williams
9 REC, 114 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 34

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 29

4th & 6Punt+2 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 37 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 2 yds to the Illin 36

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Tommy DeVito sacked by Sherman Timbs for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 34

2nd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the Illin 41

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.80

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.97

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 12 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

4th & 5Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Reggie Love III run for no gain to the Illin 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.48

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 8 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Illin 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.45

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 21 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the MisSt 34

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.63

Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 24

3rd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.77

Tommy DeVito sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 34

4th & 19Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Caleb Griffin 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 13 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb Ducking

4th & 10Punt+8 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 8 yds to the Illin 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 15

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat Bryant

4th & 8Punt+9 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 54 yds , Lideatrick Griffin returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.78

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 17 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Will Rogers run for no gain to the Illin 39

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Illin 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.49

Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 16 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 6 yds to the Illin 13

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Interception Return+17 ydsPPA -4.80

Will Rogers pass intercepted Matthew Bailey return for 17 yds to the Illin 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the Illin 23

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.42

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Reggie Love III run for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 13 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat Bryant

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.35

Tommy DeVito sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 48

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 48 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.65

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Simeon Price

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Rogers pass intercepted Kendall Smith return for no gain to the Illin 23

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Reggie Love III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 21

2nd & 12Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.92

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 41 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 13 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 9 yds to the MisSt 16

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.48

Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 3

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.26

Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Reggie Love III run for no gain to the MisSt 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.51

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 25 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Illin 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.64

Jaden Walley pass complete to Will Rogers for 13 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for no gain to the Illin 27

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Illin 20

4th & 3Field Goal Good+38 yds

Massimo Biscardi 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Reggie Love III run for 13 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Miles Scott

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Josh McCray run for no gain to the Illin 22

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat Bryant

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 6 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 3 yds to the MisSt 35

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 35

4th & 1Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 44 yds, downed at the Illin 21

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the Illin 28

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Reggie Love III for 7 yds to the Illin 43

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.34

Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 7 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.22

Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.43

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 11 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip Reiman

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.16

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32

3rd & 12Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Tommy DeVito sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 34

4th & 14Field Goal Good+52 yds

Caleb Griffin 52 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.26

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 22 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.73

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the Illin 36

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 41

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 5 yds to the Illin 36

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.54

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Illin 26

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.08

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Illin 11

2nd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for no gain to the Illin 11

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Will Rogers run for 3 yds to the Illin 8

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.98

Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the Illin 26

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 16

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.16

Tommy DeVito run for no gain to the Illin 16

3rd & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.86

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Griffin Moore for 17 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Illin 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 38

1st & 20Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 3 yds to the Illin 41

2nd & 17Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.83

Tommy DeVito sacked by Cameron Young for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 32

3rd & 26Penalty+10 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Reggie Love III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 40

2nd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.42

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 12 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.54

Tommy DeVito sacked by De'Monte Russell for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 15

2nd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.71

Simeon Price run for 14 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.50

Jo'quavious Marks run for 16 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the Illin 49

2nd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 10 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MisSt

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb Ducking

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Will Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Illin 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.79

Tommy DeVito sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 23

2nd & 20Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.73

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the Illin 37

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 6Punt+1 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 43 yds , Lideatrick Griffin returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.57

Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 19 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Simeon Price run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.17

Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.60

Simeon Price run for 13 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the Illin 30

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin

3rd & 8Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.71

Simeon Price run for 28 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush-9 ydsPPA -1.64

TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 11

2nd & 11Field Goal Good+27 yds

Massimo Biscardi 27 yd FG GOOD

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
61%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
60%
10 plays
0%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
26 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
63%
8 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th