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← Back to GamesDec 21, 2022Week 1
LibertyLiberty
19
-Final
21
ToledoToledo

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 4.8

Home Win Probability

Toledo 61%

Market (consensus)

Toledo -3.5

Edge: Toledo -3.5 (1.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 21, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
LibertyLiberty
7001219
ToledoToledo
0310821

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-73-710-713-721-721-1321-19
ToledoLiberty

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LIBTOLLIBTOLLIBTOLLIBTOLLIBTOLLIBTOLLIBTOLLIBLIBTOLLIBTOLLIBTOLPUNT838ydDOWNS1141ydTD553ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT421ydFG1068ydPUNT38ydPUNT824ydPUNT32ydPUNT725ydEND1-1ydTD1375ydTO2-4ydFG4-4ydTO420ydMISS4-5ydTD1680ydTD769ydPUNT64ydTD167ydUncategorized750yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Liberty and Toledo
StatisticLibertyToledo
Passing13-2118-28
Pass Yards151183
Rush Yards102177
Total Yards253360
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-810-17
Penalties5-405-55
Possession19:5639:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Liberty
passing
Kaidon Salter
12/20, 84 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Kaidon Salter
10 CAR, 63 YDS
receiving
Bentley Hanshaw
2 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
16/24, 133 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jacquez Stuart
23 CAR, 111 YDS
receiving
Jamal Turner
3 REC, 53 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 5 yds to the Liber 23

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.26

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Caleb Snead for 13 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 4 yds to the Liber 40

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.21

Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 7 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the Toled 45

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the Toled 44

3rd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.20

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for no gain to the Toled 44

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 12

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Finn, Dequan pass complete to Stuart, Jacquez for 8 yards to the TOLEDO20, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the TOLEDO7, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 12

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Toled 18

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.32

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 39

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.76

Dequan Finn sacked by Durrell Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 41

2nd & 13Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.89

Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 18 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Liber 39

3rd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Liber 39

4th & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.26

Dequan Finn sacked by TreShaun Clark for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 47

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ Daniels

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Toled 44

3rd & 1Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.46

Kaidon Salter run for 20 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Jerome Jackson

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Snead, Caleb, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDonald, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY.

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Shedro Louis run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 25

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 29

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.49

Dequan Finn sacked by Aakil Washington and Mike Smith Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 22

4th & 13Punt+1 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 41 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 1 yd to the Liber 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 2 yds to the Liber 40

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Snead, Caleb, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDonald, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the Toled 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ Yarbrough

3rd & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.29

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 41

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 9

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Peny Boone run for no gain to the Toled 9

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.83

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.72

Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the Toled 40

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.94

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 38 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 23

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jamal Turner

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

4th & 13Field Goal Good+41 yds

Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Shedro Louis run for no gain to the Liber 22

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.46

Kaidon Salter sacked by Jackson Barrow for a loss of 7 yards to the Liber 15

3rd & 17Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.36

Kaidon Salter run for 15 yds to the Liber 30

4th & 2Punt+22 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 54 yds , Adam Beale returns for 22 yds to the Toled 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 47

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 6 yds to the Liber 45

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Devan Rogers) to the Liber 46

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Liber 45

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the Liber 43

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 5 yds to the Liber 38

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 21 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Noah Frith

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the Liber 19

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Demario Douglas

4th & 8Punt+7 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 50 yds , Adam Beale returns for 7 yds to the Toled 38

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 47

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Liber 44

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.52

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Liber 31

3rd & 6Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -2.21

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 37

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 19

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jerjuan Newton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 24 Jerjuan Newton fumbled, recovered by Toled

2nd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 12 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 36

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Toled 42

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.09

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.87

Jacquez Stuart run for 15 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Liber 31

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Liber 27

3rd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony Torres

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Liber 17 Peny Boone fumbled, forced by Mike Smith Jr., recovered by Toled Anthony Torres

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.45

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 13 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Dequan Finn pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 4 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Shedro Louis run for 9 yds to the Liber 21

2nd & 1Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.50

Kaidon Salter sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 13 yards to the Liber 8 Kaidon Salter fumbled, forced by Nate Givhan, recovered by Toled Jamal Hines , return for 0 yards

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal Turner

2nd & 8Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.56

Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 12

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez Stuart

4th & 12Field Goal Good+29 yds

Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Kaidon Salter run for 17 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 3 yds to the Liber 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Demario Douglas for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Cooper McCaw) to the Liber 45

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+44 yds

Aidan Alves punt for 44 yds , Adam Beale returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 10 Adam Beale fumbled, recovered by Liber Treon Sibley

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Shedro Louis run for 7 yds to the Toled 3

2nd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.61

Shedro Louis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 6

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Jackson, Jerome, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (McCaw, Cooper) 10 yards to the TOLEDO16, NO PLAY.

3rd & 16Penalty-5 yds

LIBERTY Penalty, False Start (Bentley Hanshaw) to the Toled 21

3rd & 21Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 6 yds to the Toled 15

4th & 15Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Nick Brown 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 25

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 26

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.47

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.58

Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 29

2nd & 15Penalty+10 yds

Finn, Dequan pass incomplete to Stuart, Jacquez, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (Smith Jr., Mike) 10 yards to the TOLEDO39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO.

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Toled 45

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.23

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer Blankumsee

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.07

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Liber 41

2nd & 4Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Micah Kelly run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 45

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.28

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 9 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.39

Micah Kelly run for 16 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Liber 17

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 13 yds to the Liber 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 5

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 4 yds to the Liber 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout LIBERTY, clock 10:35 (Dequan Finn pass to Jacquez Stuart for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 34

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the Liber 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Jackson, Jerome, PENALTY LIBERTY holding (McCaw, Cooper) 10 yards to the LIBERTY32, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Noah Frith

2nd & 20Penalty+15 yds

Salter, Kaidon pass incomplete to Douglas, Demario, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (Mitchell, Quinyon) 15 yards to the LIBERTY47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LIBERTY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 11 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the Toled 34

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.17

Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.79

Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer Blankumsee

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.97

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 12 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 40

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 41

3rd & 4Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.31

Dequan Finn sacked by Aakil Washington for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 29

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 33

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+67 ydsPPA +5.43

CJ Daniels pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 67 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 35

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.95

Jacquez Stuart run for 16 yds to the Liber 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the Liber 27

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.22

Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.68

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 24

Situational Analysis

Liberty

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
52%
33 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
25%
8 plays
45%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
57%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play