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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2022Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas State by 8.5

Home Win Probability

Texas State 71%

Market (consensus)

Texas State -6

Edge: Texas State -6 (2.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Arkansas StateArkansas State
073313
Texas StateTexas State
3001316

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40143-03-73-1010-1013-1013-13
Texas StateArkansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASTSASFG1269ydPUNT33ydPUNT38ydPUNT513ydPUNT38ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT37ydPUNT523ydPUNT1051ydMISS859ydPUNT3-3ydTD973ydEND413ydPUNT32ydPUNT421ydPUNT534ydPUNT38ydFG618ydPUNT614ydPUNT3-3ydTD1166ydDOWNS846ydFG1133ydFG836ydFG556ydUncategorized00yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Arkansas State and Texas State
StatisticArkansas StateTexas State
Passing22-4023-37
Pass Yards237196
Rush Yards54144
Total Yards291340
Turnovers00
3rd Down3-156-17
Penalties2-161-15
Possession25:5734:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Arkansas State
passing
James Blackman
22/40, 237 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Johnnie Lang
13 CAR, 36 YDS
receiving
Daverrick Jenkins
3 REC, 56 YDS
defense
Texas State
passing
Layne Hatcher
23/36, 196 YDS
rushing
Lincoln Pare
19 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Donnovan Moorer
6 REC, 54 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 26

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the TexSt 32

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.80

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 4 yds to the TexSt 37

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.57

Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.04

Lincoln Pare run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34

2nd & 9Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.94

Josh Berry run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Josh Berry run for no gain to the ArkSt 11

3rd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 3 yds to the ArkSt 8

4th & 3Field Goal Good+25 yds

Seth Keller 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23

3rd & 17Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.18

James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 10 yds to the ArkSt 33

4th & 7Punt0 yds

William Przystup punt for 48 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the TexSt 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles Brown

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.34

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 8 yds to the TexSt 25

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan Moorer

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

James Blackman pass incomplete to Brian Snead

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.02

Brian Snead run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

James Blackman pass complete to Reed Tyler for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brian Snead run for no gain to the TexSt 45

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY ASU Delay Of Game (Hanson,Ryan) 5 yards from TXST45 to TXST50. NO PLAY.

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 50 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Josh Berry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 28

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

4th & 2Punt+2 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.26

James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 3 yds to the ArkSt 32

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

James Blackman pass incomplete to Seydou Traore

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 22 , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the TexSt 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 23

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 29

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles Brown

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brian Snead run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29

2nd & 11Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.59

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 18 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Brian Snead run for 6 yds to the TexSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Brian Snead run for 3 yds to the TexSt 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.90

Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 5

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 7

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 13 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18

2nd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.94

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 18 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles Brown

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 9 yds to the TexSt 45

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.19

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 44

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 7

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Johnnie Lang run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 10

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

Johnnie Lang run for no gain to the ArkSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.71

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 22 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

James Blackman pass complete to Reed Tyler for 5 yds to the TexSt 34

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

James Blackman pass incomplete to Seydou Traore

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

James Blackman pass incomplete to Seydou Traore

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+51 yds

Dominic Zvada 51 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Austin Groeschel for a 2 yard loss to the TexSt 32

2nd & 12Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.49

Layne Hatcher sacked by Melique Straker for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 31

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds , Johnnie Lang returns for no gain to the ArkSt 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.73

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.44

James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 17 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

James Blackman pass incomplete to Champ Flemings

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.74

James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 8 yds to the TexSt 36

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.74

James Blackman pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 3 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

James Blackman pass incomplete to Daverrick Jenkins

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.36

James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 7 yds to the TexSt 26

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.18

James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 26 yds for a TD, (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 50 yds , Josh Berry return for 23 yds to the TexSt 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue Jackson

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.20

Jahmyl Jeter run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 4 yds to the ArkSt 46

2nd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Layne Hatcher sacked by Tim Hardiman for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 49

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 43 yds , Johnnie Lang return for 11 yds to the ArkSt 33

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance Hunt

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.15

Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 47

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 14

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Johnnie Lang run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 16

2nd & 8Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.01

James Blackman pass complete to Champ Flemings for 33 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance Hunt

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

James Blackman pass incomplete to Brian Snead

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 11

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Josh Berry run for no gain to the TexSt 11

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Josh Berry

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 8 yds to the TexSt 19

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 44

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Johnnie Lang run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.44

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 4 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

James Blackman pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 8 yds to the TexSt 38

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

James Blackman pass incomplete to Daverrick Jenkins

4th & 2Field Goal Good+56 yds

Dominic Zvada 56 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 64 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 26 yds to the TexSt 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Josh Berry run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32

3rd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.80

Layne Hatcher run for 7 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dennis Robinson

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.18

Layne Hatcher sacked by Melique Straker for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 33

3rd & 16Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.20

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 8 yds to the TexSt 41

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Johnnie Lang at the ArkSt 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brian Snead run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

James Blackman pass complete to Johnnie Lang for 2 yds to the ArkSt 29

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.49

James Blackman sacked by Brian Holloway for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 22

4th & 13Punt+1 yds

Ryan Hanson punt for 45 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 34

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 5 yds to the TexSt 41

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.33

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 13 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tyler Huff for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.57

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 17 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan Moorer

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Chandler Speights for 9 yds to the ArkSt 19

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.17

Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 12

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.45

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Josh Berry for 10 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+3 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 49 yds , Johnnie Lang return for 3 yds to the ArkSt 19

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Marcel Murray run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24

2nd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.79

James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 18 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Marcel Murray run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45

2nd & 7Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.85

Johnnie Lang run for 16 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Johnnie Lang run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.87

James Blackman pass complete to Marcel Murray for no gain to the TexSt 35

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

James Blackman pass incomplete to Daverrick Jenkins

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.87

James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.87

James Blackman pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 6 yds to the TexSt 44

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.13

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Layne Hatcher run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 48

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.99

Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Josh Berry run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 37

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Josh Berry run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 32

4th & 1Field Goal Good+49 yds

Seth Keller 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+37 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 43 yds , Johnnie Lang return for 37 yds to the TexSt 41

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Johnnie Lang run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

James Blackman pass incomplete to Champ Flemings

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

James Blackman pass incomplete to Te'Vailance Hunt

4th & 9Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.51

James Blackman pass complete to Daverrick Jenkins for 31 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Johnnie Lang run for 5 yds to the TexSt 4

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

James Blackman pass complete to Seydou Traore for 1 yd to the TexSt 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

James Blackman pass incomplete to Johnnie Lang

4th & 5Field Goal Good+23 yds

Dominic Zvada 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Tristan Mattson kickoff for 40 yds , Josh Berry return for 7 yds to the TexSt 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the TexSt 35

2nd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.48

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 21 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.75

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 21 yds to the ArkSt 23 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Ethan Hassler) to the ArkSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Good+29 yds

Seth Keller 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 50 yds , Johnnie Lang return for 7 yds to the ArkSt 22

Situational Analysis

Arkansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
43%
7 plays
55%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
20%
30 plays
2nd
17%
6 plays
83%
18 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play