Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 22, 2022Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas State by 5.1

Home Win Probability

Texas State 58%

Market (consensus)

Texas State +2.5

Edge: Texas State +2.5 (7.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 22, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Southern MissSouthern Miss
3100720
Texas StateTexas State
070714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-30-107-1314-20
Texas StateSouthern Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMPUNT520ydPUNT622ydPUNT3-16ydFG619ydPUNT621ydTO430ydDOWNS49ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT30ydTD737ydTD875ydFG1052ydTO827ydDOWNS617ydPUNT421ydPUNT416ydPUNT33ydPUNT615ydPUNT838ydPUNT3-8ydTO31ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT37ydPUNT516ydTD585ydTD669ydTO422ydEND1-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Southern Miss and Texas State
StatisticSouthern MissTexas State
Passing18-2626-43
Pass Yards187249
Rush Yards131-6
Total Yards318243
Turnovers31
3rd Down7-192-14
Penalties5-504-30
Possession34:1025:50

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Southern Miss
passing
Zach Wilcke
18/25, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Frank Gore Jr.
20 CAR, 91 YDS
receiving
Chandler Pittman
1 REC, 53 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Malik Shorts
1 TFL, 1 PD
Texas State
passing
Layne Hatcher
25/42, 254 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Calvin Hill
3 CAR, 3 YDS
receiving
Ashtyn Hawkins
5 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the TexSt 21

2nd & 14Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.44

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 20 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln Pare

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles Brown

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY USM Offside (Quewon,Dominic) 5 yards from TXST41 to TXST46. NO PLAY.

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.91

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 11 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 4 yds to the SoMis 37

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Zach Wilcke run for 8 yds to the SoMis 45

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 4 yds to the SoMis 27

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Antavious Willis run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30

4th & 6Blocked Punt+32 yds

Mason Hunt punt blocked by Kenny Haynes, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 23 blocked by Kenny Haynes

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 22

3rd & 19Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Lincoln Pare pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the TexSt 9

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 26 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.05

Janari Dean run for 7 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 1 yd to the TexSt 20

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 17

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY USM False Start (Baker,Luke) 5 yards from TXST17 to TXST22. NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 6 yds to the TexSt 16

4th & 5Field Goal Good+33 yds

Briggs Bourgeois 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TXST17 (Ratcliff,Josh) PENALTY USM Personal Foul (Mahaffey,Jordyn) 15 yards from TXST23 to TXST38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.00

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 2 yds to the TexSt 48

3rd & 12Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 2 yds to the TexSt 46

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the SoMis 31

3rd & 1Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.60

Frank Gore Jr. run for 21 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.31

Zach Wilcke pass intercepted

1st & 20Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 12 yds to the TexSt 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the TexSt 45

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TexSt 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 5 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.01

Zach Wilcke sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 49

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

3rd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.08

Layne Hatcher sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 2

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for no gain to the TexSt 37

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Chandler Pittman run for no gain to the TexSt 37

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.02

Janari Dean run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.47

Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 26

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Chandler Pittman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22

3rd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.05

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 20 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Janari Dean run for 2 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

2nd & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +3.97

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 45 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Titus Lyons

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.81

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the SoMis 15

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds to the SoMis 11

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +1.23

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tyler Huff for 7 yds Tyler Huff fumbled, recovered by SoMis Tyler Huff for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.60

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 21 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Zach Wilcke run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.85

Chandler Pittman run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.74

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 30

2nd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.56

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 9 yds to the TexSt 21

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23

4th & 6Field Goal Good+40 yds

Briggs Bourgeois 40 yd FG GOOD

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Tiaquelin Mims

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.49

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 5 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.46

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 8 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48

3rd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -1.97

Zach Wilcke pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the SoMis 46

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds to the SoMis 40

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.60

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38

1st & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA -0.10

Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Janari Dean run for 4 yds to the TexSt 41

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Luke Baker

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.61

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen Banks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the TexSt 31

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 20

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26

2nd & 4Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Zach Wilcke sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 22

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Zach Wilcke run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33

3rd & 2Penalty+15 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the TexSt 40

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen Banks

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 60 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 28

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Chandler Pittman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Chandler Pittman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.10

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 9 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

3rd & 12Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 1 yd to the TexSt 42

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 42 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21

2nd & 9Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.51

Layne Hatcher sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 12

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 13 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -3.53

Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24 Janari Dean fumbled, recovered by SoMis Sione Tupou

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 24

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.33

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for no gain to the TexSt 24

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 27

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 39

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jake Lange pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -1.15

Jake Lange sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 35 Jake Lange fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jake Lange , return for 0 yards

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 1 yd to the TexSt 18

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the TexSt 24

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 40

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the SoMis 49

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Pittman,Chandler rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USM50 (Hockley,Rodrick) PENALTY USM Holding (Doss,Tykeem) 10 yards from USM49 to USM39. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.31

Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44

4th & 5Penalty0 yds

SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay Of Game (Natrone Brooks) declined

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mason Hunt punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the TexSt 21

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.37

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+74 ydsPPA +7.11

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 74 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 46 yds , Camron Harrell return for 12 yds to the SoMis 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 7 yds to the SoMis 38

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.27

Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Zach Wilcke run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Tiaquelin Mims

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47

4th & 4Passing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +6.41

Zach Wilcke pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 53 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.69

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 22 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.75

Layne Hatcher pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.10

Kneel down by Southern Miss. at TXST35 for loss of 3 yards.

Situational Analysis

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
36%
28 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
7 plays
38%
8 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
22%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
46%
13 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays