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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5
Drake
14
-Final
27
Dayton
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Dayton by 20.5

Home Win Probability

Dayton 85%

Market (consensus)

Dayton -16

Edge: Dayton -16 (4.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Drake
070714
Dayton
7314327

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-010-010-724-727-727-14
DaytonDrake

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DAYDRADAYDRADAYDAYDRADAYDRADRADAYDRADAYDRADAYDRADAYDRADAYDRADAYDRADAYDOWNS624ydPUNT611ydTD990ydPUNT32ydPUNT31ydFG48ydMISS1365ydTO1176ydTD1180ydPUNT831ydPUNT31ydPUNT36ydTD655ydPUNT3-7ydTD545ydDOWNS525ydPUNT35ydTO10ydPUNT720ydPUNT3-5ydFG653ydTD671ydDOWNS77yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Drake and Dayton
StatisticDrakeDayton
Passing18-3319-24
Pass Yards161176
Rush Yards90184
Total Yards251360
Turnovers21
3rd Down5-154-13
Penalties5-555-43
Possession38:4321:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Drake
passing
Ian Corwin
18/33, 161 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dorian Boyland
15 CAR, 58 YDS
receiving
Zack Gray
2 REC, 51 YDS
Dayton
passing
Dante Casciola
19/24, 176 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jake Chisholm
24 CAR, 131 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jake Chisholm
5 REC, 38 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Dante Casciola pass complete to Joey Swanson for 9 yds to the Dayt 35

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Dante Casciola pass complete to Jake Chisholm for 6 yds to the Dayt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jake Chisholm run for no gain to the Dayt 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Dante Casciola pass complete to Jake Chisholm for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Dante Casciola run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jake Chisholm run for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Ian Corwin pass complete to Tim Nesslage for 7 yds to the Dayt 43

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Dorian Boyland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Dayt 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.54

Ian Corwin pass complete to Trey Radocha for 6 yds to the Dayt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Christian Galvan run for 2 yds to the Dayt 36

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.57

Christian Galvan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Dayt 39

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jeremy Jonozzo at the Dayt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Dante Casciola pass complete to Jeremy Jonozzo for 6 yds to the Dayt 16

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Dante Casciola pass complete to Luke Brenner for 7 yds to the Dayt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Dante Casciola run for 3 yds to the Dayt 26

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.72

Jake Chisholm run for 14 yds to the Dayt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Dante Casciola pass complete to Jake Chisholm for 6 yds to the Dayt 46

2nd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.64

Dante Casciola pass complete to Joey Swanson for 28 yds to the Drake 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Dante Casciola run for 3 yds to the Drake 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Dante Casciola pass complete to Kyle Hazell for 14 yds to the Drake 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Jake Chisholm run for 9 yds for a TD, (Sam Webster KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Dorian Boyland run for 3 yds to the Drake 29

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Ian Corwin run for 6 yds to the Drake 35

3rd & 1Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.19

Ian Corwin sacked by Ca'ron Coleman and Ben Schmiesing for a loss of 7 yards to the Drake 28

4th & 8Punt+8 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 61 yds , Sam Bubonics returns for 8 yds to the Dayt 19

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.53

Dante Casciola pass complete to Luke Brenner for no gain to the Dayt 19

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Dante Casciola pass complete to Ty Stylski for 1 yd to the Dayt 20

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt-4 yds

Drew Nieman punt for 47 yds , Jackson Williams returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Drake 29

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Dante Casciola run for 2 yds to the Drake 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Dante Casciola pass complete to Sam Bubonics for 4 yds to the Drake 23

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Dante Casciola pass complete to Jake Chisholm for 2 yds to the Drake 21

4th & 2Field Goal Good+39 yds

Sam Webster 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Dorian Boyland run for 15 yds to the Drake 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dorian Boyland run for 5 yds to the Drake 45

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Dorian Boyland run for a loss of 2 yards to the Drake 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.72

Ian Corwin pass complete to Colin Howard for 12 yds to the Dayt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ian Corwin pass complete to Tim Nesslage for 5 yds to the Dayt 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Ian Corwin pass complete to Jacob McCauley for 7 yds to the Dayt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Ian Corwin run for 1 yd to the Dayt 32

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Dorian Boyland run for 3 yds to the Dayt 29

3rd & 6Penalty+3 yds

DAYTON Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (3 Yards) to the Dayt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Dorian Boyland run for 3 yds to the Dayt 10

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+27 yds

Luke Williams 27 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jake Chisholm run for 4 yds to the Dayt 24

2nd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.38

Dante Casciola pass complete to Sam Bubonics for 8 yds to the Dayt 32 for a 1ST down DRAKE Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the Dayt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Dante Casciola run for 6 yds to the Drake 47

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.37

Dante Casciola run for 4 yds to the Drake 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Ty Stylski run for 7 yds to the Drake 36

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Dante Casciola run for no gain to the Drake 36

3rd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.18

Dante Casciola pass complete to Kyle Hazell for 17 yds to the Drake 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.55

Jake Chisholm run for 13 yds to the Drake 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jake Chisholm run for 2 yds to the Drake 4

3rd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -4.30

Dante Casciola pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Ian Corwin pass complete to Dorian Boyland for 3 yds to the Drake 23

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ian Corwin run for 5 yds to the Drake 28

3rd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Ian Corwin pass complete to Zack Gray for 8 yds to the Drake 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Ian Corwin pass complete to Austin Flax for 6 yds to the Drake 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.90

Ian Corwin pass complete to Austin Flax for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.97

Ian Corwin pass complete to Colin Howard for 18 yds to the Dayt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Ian Corwin pass complete to Colin Howard for no gain to the Dayt 32

2nd & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.16

Ian Corwin run for 24 yds to the Dayt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.86

Ian Corwin sacked by Joe Durham for a loss of 8 yards to the Dayt 16

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

3rd & 16Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.67

Ian Corwin pass complete to Trey Radocha for 16 yds for a TD, (Jackson Williams KICK)

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Ian Corwin run for 9 yds to the Drake 34

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

DAYTON Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Drake 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Dorian Boyland run for no gain to the Drake 39

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Dorian Boyland run for 4 yds to the Drake 43

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.41

Ian Corwin pass complete to Trey Radocha for 9 yds to the Dayt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Christian Galvan run for 4 yds to the Dayt 44

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.03

Ian Corwin pass complete to Jacob McCauley for no gain to the Dayt 44

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 24 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jake Chisholm run for 2 yds to the Dayt 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Dante Casciola run for 2 yds to the Dayt 24

3rd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.31

Dante Casciola sacked by Finn Claypool for a loss of 3 yards to the Dayt 21

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Drew Nieman punt for 47 yds, downed at the Drake 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Dorian Boyland run for 4 yds to the Drake 36

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Dorian Boyland run for 2 yds to the Drake 38

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Sam Bubonics at the Dayt 45

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.59

Jake Chisholm run for a loss of 2 yards to the Dayt 43

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Jake Chisholm run for 1 yd to the Dayt 44

3rd & 11Penalty+15 yds

DRAKE Penalty, Roughing the Passer enforced (15 Yards) to the Drake 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jake Chisholm run for 5 yds to the Drake 21

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.14

Dante Casciola pass complete to Ty Stylski for 21 yds for a TD, (Sam Webster KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

3rd & 10Penalty0 yds

DRAKE Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declined

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Sam Bubonics at the Drake 45

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Dante Casciola run for 4 yds to the Drake 41

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

CASCIOLA, Dante pass up the middle complete for 15 yards to CHISHOLM, Jake to the DRK26 (HUGHES, Holden). PENALTY Before the snap, DAY Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the DRK41 to the DRK46. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.89

Dante Casciola pass complete to Luke Brenner for 16 yds to the Drake 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Sam Bubonics run for 5 yds to the Drake 25

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.16

Dante Casciola run for 8 yds to the Drake 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Jake Chisholm run for 17 yds for a TD, (Sam Webster KICK)

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Dorian Boyland run for 17 yds to the Drake 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Dorian Boyland run for 3 yds to the Drake 45

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Davion Cherwin run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Ian Corwin run for 1 yd to the Dayt 49

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Dorian Boyland run for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 5Punt+8 yds

Drew Nieman punt for 25 yds , Brandon Langdok returns for 8 yds to the Drake 28

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jake Chisholm run for 1 yd to the Drake 49

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

Jake Chisholm run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dante Casciola pass complete to Sam Bubonics for 5 yds to the Drake 45

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.14

Ian Corwin pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Dante Casciola run for 4 yds to the Drake 44

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.77

Jake Chisholm run for 7 yds to the Drake 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Ty Stylski run for 3 yds to the Drake 34

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Ty Stylski run for 8 yds to the Drake 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jake Chisholm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Drake 27

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jake Chisholm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Drake 28

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Dante Casciola pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Drew Nieman punt for 14 yds, downed at the Drake 14

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

DRAKE Penalty, False Start (Tony Graham II) to the Drake 9

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt+9 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 57 yds , Sam Bubonics returns for 9 yds to the Dayt 43

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +1.77

Jake Chisholm run for 32 yds to the Drake 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.18

Jake Chisholm run for 14 yds to the Drake 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

DRAKE Penalty, Offsides (Tony Graham II) to the Drake 6

1st & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.80

Ty Stylski run for a loss of 3 yards to the Drake 9

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Dante Casciola pass complete to Sam Bubonics for 5 yds to the Drake 4

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Sam Bubonics run for no gain to the Drake 4

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Sam Webster 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.22

Ian Corwin pass complete to Brandon Langdok for a loss of 4 yards to the Drake 25

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Ian Corwin pass incomplete

4th & 14Penalty+30 yds

CORWIN, Ian pass up the middle incomplete intended for LANGDOK, Brandon broken up by JONOZZO, Jeremy at the DAY45, clock 02:59. PENALTY DAY Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 30 yards to the DAY45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +2.18

Ian Corwin pass complete to Zack Gray for 43 yds to the Dayt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Ian Corwin pass complete to Trey Radocha for 7 yds to the Dayt 10

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.27

Ian Corwin pass complete to Austin Flax for 10 yds for a TD, (Jackson Williams KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

kickoff for 10 yds , Logan Miller return for no gain to the Drake 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Logan Davis run for 3 yds to the Drake 42

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jake Chisholm run for 4 yds to the Drake 38

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.01

Jake Chisholm run for 4 yds to the Drake 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Jake Chisholm run for 3 yds to the Drake 31

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Jake Chisholm run for 1 yd to the Drake 30

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.37

Logan Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Drake 32

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

DAYTON Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Drake 37

Situational Analysis

Drake

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
10 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
41%
27 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
86%
7 plays
50%
12 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play