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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

App State by 22.5

Home Win Probability

App State 90%

Market (consensus)

App State -39

Edge: The Citadel +39 (16.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
The Citadel
00000
App StateApp State
14217749

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-028-035-042-049-0
App StateThe Citadel

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ASTCASTCASTCASTCASTCASTCASTCTCASTCASTCASTCASTD674ydPUNT3-6ydDOWNS518ydPUNT30ydTD875ydPUNT36ydTD865ydPUNT33ydTD173ydTO711ydTD333ydPUNT3-9ydPUNT411ydEND976ydTO1767ydTD180ydPUNT614ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS47ydTD760ydDOWNS929ydEND129yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing The Citadel and App State
StatisticThe CitadelApp State
Passing3-814-21
Pass Yards51298
Rush Yards172247
Total Yards223545
Turnovers20
3rd Down5-180-5
Penalties4-253-28
Possession39:5120:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

The Citadel
passing
Peyton Derrick
2/7, 45 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Sam Llewellyn
10 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Jay Graves-Billips
2 REC, 42 YDS
defense
App State
passing
Chase Brice
12/18, 265 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Camerun Peoples
4 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Christan Horn
3 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Colby Kintner kickoff for 49 yds , Kaedin Robinson return for 10 yds to the AppSt 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Chase Brice pass complete to Camerun Peoples for 5 yds to the AppSt 31

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.25

Camerun Peoples run for 10 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 3 yds to the AppSt 44

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.48

Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the Citad 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the Citad 44

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +3.97

Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 44 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Logan Billings run for 3 yds to the Citad 38

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Logan Billings run for 2 yds to the Citad 40

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY CIT False Start (Njoku,Nkem) 5 yards from CIT40 to CIT35. NO PLAY.

3rd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.46

Peyton Derrick sacked by KeSean Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Citad 29

4th & 16Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 10 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 42

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chase Brice run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli Wilson

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.10

Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 46

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Peyton Derrick pass incomplete to Cooper Wallace

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Sam Llewellyn run for 2 yds to the AppSt 44

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Jay Graves-Billips run for 2 yds to the AppSt 46

4th & 10Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 26 yds to the Citad 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.79

Camerun Peoples run for 14 yds to the Citad 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin Robinson

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Ahmani Marshall run for 8 yds to the Citad 27

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the Citad 26

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.09

Camerun Peoples run for 5 yds to the Citad 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Davis,Dashaun rush right for 1 yard loss to the CIT22 (Black,Hasan) PENALTY APP Illegal Block in Back (Hodges,Cooper) 10 yards from CIT21 to CIT31. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.65

Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 30 yds to the Citad 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Chase Brice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Orlando Jones run for 3 yds to the Citad 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Peyton Derrick run for 2 yds to the Citad 30

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Peyton Derrick run for 1 yd to the Citad 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Anderson Castle run for 2 yds to the AppSt 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.78

Chase Brice pass complete to Tyler Page for 10 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.00

Anderson Castle run for 15 yds to the Citad 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.53

Chase Brice pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 22 yds to the Citad 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Anderson Castle run for no gain to the Citad 16

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the Citad 13

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Chase Brice pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 5 yds to the Citad 8

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.98

Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Logan Billings run for 2 yds to the Citad 27

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Peyton Derrick run for 2 yds to the Citad 25 Peyton Derrick fumbled, recovered by Citad Peyton Derrick

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Peyton Derrick run for 3 yds to the Citad 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 45 yds , Tyler Page returns for no gain to the AppSt 27

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+73 ydsPPA +5.93

Camerun Peoples run for 73 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Sam Llewellyn run for 3 yds to the Citad 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Sam Llewellyn run for 3 yds to the Citad 31

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Sam Llewellyn run for 2 yds to the Citad 33

4th & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.43

Cooper Wallace run for 10 yds to the Citad 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Sam Llewellyn run for 1 yd to the Citad 44 Sam Llewellyn fumbled, recovered by Citad

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Logan Billings run for 3 yds to the Citad 47

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+11 ydsPPA -1.23

Cooper Wallace run for 11 yds to the Citad 33 Cooper Wallace fumbled, recovered by AppSt Stephen Passeggiata

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan Horn

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Daetrich Harrington run for 11 yds to the Citad 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.65

Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Peyton Derrick run for 2 yds to the Citad 23

2nd & 12Penalty-10 yds

Njoku,Nkem rush right for 5 yards gain to the CIT28 (Brown,KeSean) PENALTY CIT Illegal Block in Back (Wallace,Cooper) 10 yards from CIT23 to CIT13. NO PLAY.

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Peyton Derrick pass incomplete to Nkem Njoku

3rd & 22Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Johnny Crawford III run for 3 yds to the Citad 16

4th & 19Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 43

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Anderson Castle run for 11 yds to the Citad 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Camerun Peoples

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dalton Stroman

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Clayton Howell punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Citad 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Peyton Derrick pass incomplete to Ricky Conway

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Orlando Jones run for 4 yds to the Citad 24

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+12 ydsPPA +1.84

Peyton Derrick run for 12 yds to the Citad 36 Peyton Derrick fumbled, recovered by Citad Tereis Drayton for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Peyton Derrick pass incomplete to Ricky Conway

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Cooper Wallace run for 4 yds to the Citad 32

3rd & 14Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Johnny Crawford III run for 11 yds to the Citad 43

4th & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.55

Johnny Crawford III run for 5 yds to the Citad 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.82

Jay Graves-Billips run for 12 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.50

Peyton Derrick pass complete to Jay Graves-Billips for 36 yds to the AppSt 4 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jay Graves-Billips run for 5 yds to the Citad 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Logan Billings run for 3 yds to the Citad 33

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Logan Billings run for 2 yds to the Citad 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Cooper Wallace run for 6 yds to the Citad 41

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Jay Graves-Billips run for 3 yds to the Citad 44

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.29

Sam Llewellyn run for 4 yds to the Citad 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Sam Llewellyn run for 4 yds to the AppSt 48

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.29

Sam Llewellyn run for 16 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jay Graves-Billips run for 2 yds to the AppSt 30

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Orlando Jones run for 5 yds to the AppSt 25

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Peyton Derrick run for 2 yds to the AppSt 23

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.91

Sam Llewellyn run for 3 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Johnny Crawford III run for no gain to the AppSt 20

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Cooper Wallace run for 10 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Sam Llewellyn run for 3 yds to the AppSt 7

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Jay Graves-Billips run for 1 yd to the AppSt 8

3rd & 8Interception0 ydsPPA -4.05

Peyton Derrick pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.39

Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 80 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Michael Hughes kickoff for 60 yds , Jay Graves-Billips return for 21 yds to the Citad 26

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Logan Billings run for 2 yds to the Citad 28

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Orlando Jones run for no gain to the Citad 28

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.93

Peyton Derrick pass complete to Christian Hilton for 9 yds to the Citad 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Orlando Jones run for 4 yds to the Citad 41

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Orlando Jones run for 1 yd to the Citad 40

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Johnny Crawford III run for no gain to the Citad 40

4th & 7Punt0 yds

James Platte punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 16

1st & 10Penalty-8 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Roberts,Kanye rush middle for 0 yards to the APP16 (Beverly,Chris) PENALTY APP UNR: Unnecessary Roughness 8 yards from APP16 to APP08. NO PLAY.

1st & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jaquan Lowman

2nd & 18Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds to the AppSt 12

3rd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the AppSt 15

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Clayton Howell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dominick Poole at the AppSt 47

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Braden Walker run for 6 yds to the AppSt 41

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Jay Graves-Billips run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Braden Walker run for 1 yd to the AppSt 38

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.74

Braden Walker run for 2 yds to the AppSt 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.99

Brady McBride pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 11 yds to the Citad 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Kanye Roberts run for 3 yds to the Citad 46

2nd & 7Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.44

Kanye Roberts run for 21 yds to the Citad 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kanye Roberts run for 5 yds to the Citad 20

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Citad 26

2nd & 11Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.58

Brady McBride pass complete to Michael Hetzel for 22 yds to the Citad 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Kanye Roberts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ahmad Green run for 4 yds to the Citad 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jay Graves-Billips run for 4 yds to the Citad 33

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY CIT False Start (Moewe,Cameron) 5 yards from CIT33 to CIT28. NO PLAY.

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.08

Jay Graves-Billips run for 11 yds to the Citad 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Ahmad Green pass complete to Jay Graves-Billips for 6 yds to the Citad 45

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Braden Walker run for 6 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Cooper Wallace run for 4 yds to the AppSt 45

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY CIT False Start (Blanchard,Zach) 5 yards from APP45 to APP50. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Cooper Wallace run for 6 yds to the AppSt 44

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Ahmad Green run for 3 yds to the AppSt 41

4th & 2Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.81

Ahmad Green sacked by Donovan Spellman for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 46

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +1.48

Kanye Roberts run for 29 yds to the Citad 25 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

The Citadel

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
26%
23 plays
2nd
29%
7 plays
17%
12 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
80%
5 plays

App State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
59%
22 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
75%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
3 plays