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← Back to GamesNov 5, 2022Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

St. Thomas (MN) by 8.7

Home Win Probability

Valparaiso 29%

Market (consensus)

Valparaiso +6

Edge: St. Thomas (MN) -6 (2.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 5, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
St. Thomas (MN)
7713734
Valparaiso
00707

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-140-207-277-34
ValparaisoSt. Thomas (MN)

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ST(VALST(VALST(VALST(VALST(VALST(VALVALST(VALST(VALST(VALST(VALST(VALST(TO27ydTD4-1ydTD00ydPUNT58ydTO870ydPUNT3-2ydTO42ydTO21ydTD680ydPUNT735ydPUNT1146ydEND643ydPUNT38ydTD669ydTD675ydTD00ydPUNT3-4ydDOWNS620ydPUNT38ydTD969ydPUNT56ydPUNT39ydDOWNS74ydEND38yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing St. Thomas (MN) and Valparaiso
StatisticSt. Thomas (MN)Valparaiso
Passing8-1310-19
Pass Yards128130
Rush Yards22257
Total Yards350187
Turnovers32
3rd Down8-123-11
Penalties4-398-79
Possession32:1027:50

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

St. Thomas (MN)
passing
Cade Sexauer
8/13, 128 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Hope Adebayo
12 CAR, 128 YDS
receiving
Andrew McElroy
4 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
Valparaiso
passing
Michael Appel Jr.
10/19, 130 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Aaron Dawson
17 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Solomon Davis
4 REC, 84 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Hope Adebayo run for 7 yds to the StThMN 32

2nd & 3Pass Interception Return+6 ydsPPA -1.53

Cade Sexauer pass intercepted Ben Hines return for 6 yds to the StThMN 20

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Barret Labus run for 11 yds to the StThMN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Aaron Dawson run for 2 yds to the StThMN 7 for a 1ST down ST THOMAS MN Penalty, personal foul (4 Yards) to the StThMN 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the StThMN 5

2nd & 5Sack+79 yds

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Jonathan Bunce for a loss of 13 yards Michael Appel Jr. fumbled, recovered by StThMN Grif Wurtz , return for 0 yards , return for 79 yds, (Stephen Shagen KICK)

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

ST THOMAS MN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Valpo 8

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Stephen Shagen kickoff for 56 yds , Charlie Maxwell return for 21 yds to the Valpo 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Matt Ross for 5 yds to the Valpo 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.49

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jeffery Vercher for 12 yds to the Valpo 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Aaron Dawson run for 2 yds to the Valpo 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Valpo 45

3rd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.77

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Joey Fitzgerald for a loss of 7 yards to the Valpo 38

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 57 yds, downed at the StThMN 5

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Hope Adebayo run for 3 yds to the StThMN 8

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Joshua Komis run for 5 yds to the StThMN 13

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.40

Hope Adebayo run for 3 yds to the StThMN 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+49 ydsPPA +3.61

Hope Adebayo run for 49 yds to the Valpo 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Shawn Shipman run for 4 yds to the Valpo 31

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Cade Sexauer pass incomplete, broken up by Max Franco

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.08

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 6 yds to the Valpo 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+46 ydsPPA -4.30

Cade Sexauer pass intercepted Kohlton Sherman return for 46 yds to the StThMN 39

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the StThMN 41

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the StThMN 41

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Ross, broken up by Matthew Guggemos

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Andrew McElroy at the StThMN 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Cade Sexauer run for 5 yds to the StThMN 20

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Shawn Shipman run for 1 yd to the StThMN 21

3rd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.10

Cade Sexauer run for 7 yds to the StThMN 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA -1.14

Jacob WIldermuth run for a loss of 3 yards to the StThMN 17 Jacob WIldermuth fumbled, recovered by Valpo Caleb Rao

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the StThMN 16

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.16

Michael Appel Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. Luke Glenna return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Hope Adebayo run for 1 yd to the StThMN 21

2nd & 9Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.38

Hope Adebayo run for 19 yds to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST down VALPARAISO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tyler Days) to the Valpo 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Hope Adebayo run for 4 yds to the Valpo 41

2nd & 6Rush+29 ydsPPA +1.06

Hope Adebayo run for 29 yds to the Valpo 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Shawn Shipman run for 3 yds to the Valpo 9

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.63

Cade Sexauer run for 9 yds for a TD, (Stephen Shagen KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Stephen Shagen kickoff for 65 yds , Charlie Maxwell return for 24 yds to the Valpo 24

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Aaron Dawson run for 9 yds to the Valpo 33

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Aaron Dawson run for 6 yds to the Valpo 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 39

2nd & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.82

Jahni Clarke run for 22 yds to the StThMN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.82

Jahni Clarke run for 9 yds to the StThMN 30

2nd & 1Penalty-10 yds

DAWSON, A. rush for 12 yards to the TOMMIES18 (Tommy Shelstad), PENALTY VALPO holding (MERKLINGER) 10 yards to the TOMMIES40, NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.25

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the StThMN 41

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Solomon Davis, broken up by Johnson Fallah

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Andrew McElroy at the StThMN 10

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

ST THOMAS MN Penalty, illegal procedure (Grif Wurtz) declined

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Hope Adebayo run for 2 yds to the StThMN 12

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Hope Adebayo run for 3 yds to the StThMN 15

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.73

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Jacob WIldermuth for 5 yds to the StThMN 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Hope Adebayo run for 1 yd to the StThMN 21

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Cade Sexauer run for 2 yds to the StThMN 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.78

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Hope Adebayo for 22 yds to the StThMN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Shawn Shipman run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 11 yds to the Valpo 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Cade Sexauer pass incomplete to Andrew McElroy, broken up by Kohlton Sherman

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Cade Sexauer run for 4 yds to the Valpo 35

3rd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.60

Cade Sexauer sacked by Sam Hafner for a loss of 9 yards to the Valpo 44

4th & 15Punt+40 yds

Kolby Gartner punt for 36 yds, downed at the Valpo 8 VALPARAISO Penalty, Offensive holding (4 Yards) to the Valpo 4

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Barret Labus run for 3 yds to the Valpo 7 VALPARAISO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.43

Barret Labus run for 8 yds to the Valpo 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 6 yds to the Valpo 21

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Barret Labus run for 2 yds to the Valpo 23

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.99

Aaron Dawson run for 17 yds to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Aaron Dawson run for 7 yds to the Valpo 47

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Barret Labus run for 5 yds to the Valpo 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the Valpo 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Solomon Davis, broken up by Kellan McKeag

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 36 yds, downed at the StThMN 31

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.14

Shawn Shipman run for a loss of 2 yards to the StThMN 29

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Cade Sexauer run for 3 yds to the StThMN 32

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.45

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Wesley Juszczak for 11 yds to the StThMN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Shawn Shipman run for 2 yds to the StThMN 45

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Shawn Shipman run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +5.06

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 50 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +3.46

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 55 yds to the StThMN 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Barret Labus run for 4 yds to the StThMN 16

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 3 yds to the StThMN 13

3rd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.83

Aaron Dawson run for 12 yds to the StThMN 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the StThMN 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

BARTHOLOMEW kickoff 21 yards to the TOMMIES44, on-side kick, recovered by VALPO RAO on TOMMIES45, PENALTY VALPO offside 5 yards to the VALPO30, NO PLAY.

1st & 0Kickoff Return Touchdown+89 yds

Brian Bartholomew kickoff for 59 yds , Owen Kanzler return for 89 yds for a TD, (Stephen Shagen KICK)

1st & 0Penalty+15 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brian Bartholomew) to the 50 yard line

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

Stephen Shagen kickoff for 43 yds , Charlie Maxwell return for 9 yds to the Valpo 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Ross, broken up by Kam In

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Aaron Dawson run for 5 yds to the Valpo 21

3rd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.37

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Brent Robley and C.J. Warren for a loss of 9 yards to the Valpo 12

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 20 yds, downed at the Valpo 32

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Hope Adebayo run for 7 yds to the Valpo 25

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Cade Sexauer run for 4 yds to the Valpo 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Shawn Shipman run for 8 yds to the Valpo 13

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Cade Sexauer pass incomplete to Andrew McElroy

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Shawn Shipman run for 1 yd to the Valpo 12

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.97

Shawn Shipman run for no gain to the Valpo 12

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Ross

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Michael Appel Jr. run for 8 yds to the Valpo 20

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete, broken up by Mark Oreilly

4th & 2Punt+49 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Grif Wurtz at the VALPO 46 ST THOMAS MN Penalty, personal foul (Kam In) to the StThMN 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Shawn Shipman run for 2 yds to the StThMN 33

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.71

Shawn Shipman run for 10 yds to the StThMN 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Landon Reed run for 3 yds to the StThMN 46

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Cade Sexauer run for 1 yd to the StThMN 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.63

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Bryce Boyd for 14 yds to the Valpo 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Shawn Shipman run for 8 yds to the Valpo 31

2nd & 2Penalty+15 yds

Cade Sexauer pass incomplete to Bryce Boyd (TURNER, K.), PENALTY VALPO pass interference (TURNER, K.) 15 yards to the VALPO16, 1ST DOWN TOMMIES, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Shawn Shipman run for 4 yds to the Valpo 12

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.12

Cade Sexauer pass complete to Andrew McElroy for 9 yds to the Valpo 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Shawn Shipman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Stephen Shagen KICK)

1st & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

Stephen Shagen kickoff for 34 yds , Jake Birmingham return for 4 yds to the Valpo 35

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

APPEL pass complete to DAWSON, A. for 40 yards to the TOMMIES25 (Luke Glenna), PENALTY VALPO holding (WOODY) 10 yards to the VALPO25, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jahni Clarke run for 2 yds to the Valpo 27

2nd & 18Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.17

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 22 yds to the Valpo 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Evan Jernegan, broken up by Luke Herzog

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete to Matt Ross

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.17

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Noah Borgeson for a loss of 8 yards to the Valpo 41

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Grif Wurtz at the StThMN 13

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Gabriel Abel run for 5 yds to the StThMN 18

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Gabriel Abel run for 2 yds to the StThMN 20

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Gabriel Abel run for 2 yds to the StThMN 22

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Kolby Gartner punt for 32 yds, downed at the Valpo 46

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.72

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Malik Jackson and Noah Borgeson for a loss of 10 yards to the Valpo 36

2nd & 20Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.67

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 19 yds to the StThMN 45

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.82

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the StThMN 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

APPEL pass incomplete to DAVIS (M Guggemos), PENALTY TOMMIES pass interference (Ryan Calcagno) 15 yards to the TOMMIES29, 1ST DOWN VALPO, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.12

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Malik Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the StThMN 38

2nd & 19Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 8 yds to the StThMN 30

3rd & 11Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.58

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Malik Jackson and Jack Mohler for a loss of 10 yards to the StThMN 40

4th & 21Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.17

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Malik Jackson and David Ayeni for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Gabriel Abel run for 3 yds to the Valpo 47

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Gabriel Abel run for 1 yd to the Valpo 46

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Gabriel Abel run for 4 yds to the Valpo 42

Situational Analysis

St. Thomas (MN)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
33%
24 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
45%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play