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← Back to GamesOct 29, 2022Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Dayton by 5

Home Win Probability

Dayton 61%

Market (consensus)

Dayton -3

Edge: Dayton -3 (2.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 29, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Valparaiso
1407324
Dayton
1437731

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142814-014-1417-1417-2124-2124-2431-24
DaytonValparaiso

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DAYVALVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALTD577ydTD30ydTD368ydPUNT3-5ydTD668ydPUNT832ydMISS1032ydTO2-4ydDOWNS720ydFG1492ydEND1-1ydTD575ydTO532ydPUNT512ydTD970ydFG847ydTO460ydPUNT538ydMISS860ydPUNT416ydTD968ydEND2-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Valparaiso and Dayton
StatisticValparaisoDayton
Passing22-2912-19
Pass Yards323137
Rush Yards36307
Total Yards359444
Turnovers13
3rd Down6-137-12
Penalties7-717-55
Possession30:1129:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Valparaiso
passing
Michael Appel Jr.
22/29, 323 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Aaron Dawson
18 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Braden Contreras
7 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
Dayton
passing
Shane Hamm
12/19, 137 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Shane Hamm
25 CAR, 129 YDS
receiving
Derek Willits
3 REC, 43 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Shane Hamm run for 6 yds to the Dayt 29

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.47

Shane Hamm run for 4 yds to the Dayt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.38

Shane Hamm pass complete to Joey Swanson for 30 yds to the Valpo 37 for a 1ST down

2nd & 14Rush+30 ydsPPA +2.09

Michael Neel run for 30 yds to the Valpo 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-4 yds

HAMM, Shane pass to the right complete for -57 yards to BRENNER, Luke caught at the DAY7 and advanced to the DAY6 (SCIARRONI, Anthony), out of bounds. PENALTY DAY Illegal Forward Pass enforced 4 yards from the VAL37 to the VAL41, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Jake Chisholm run for 11 yds for a TD, (Michael Denning KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for no gain to the Valpo 25

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 25

3rd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+30 ydsPPA -6.87

Cole Hildebrand 30 Yd Interception Return (Michael Denning Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Aaron Dawson run for 6 yds to the Valpo 38

2nd & 4Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.74

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Valpo 33

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+67 ydsPPA +6.88

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 67 yds for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Jake Chisholm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Dayt 31

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Shane Hamm pass incomplete

3rd & 11Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.30

Shane Hamm sacked by James Doerer for a loss of 4 yards to the Dayt 27

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Drew Nieman punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.73

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Matt Ross for 39 yds to the Dayt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for a loss of 2 yards to the Dayt 31

2nd & 12Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.09

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 21 yds to the Dayt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Dayt 12

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +3.23

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 12 yds for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jake Chisholm run for 4 yds to the Dayt 14

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Jake Chisholm run for 7 yds to the Dayt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Shane Hamm run for 1 yd to the Dayt 22

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Jake Chisholm run for 5 yds to the Dayt 27

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.35

Shane Hamm pass complete to Derek Willits for 6 yds to the Dayt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Shane Hamm pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

QB Keeper HAMM, Shane rush to the right for a gain of 28 yards to the VAL39 (RAO, Caleb), out of bounds. PENALTY DAY Offsides enforced 5 yards from the DAY32 to the DAY27, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with -1 yards on the play [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 16Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.18

Shane Hamm pass complete to Cade Beam for 7 yds to the Dayt 34

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Shane Hamm run for 8 yds to the Dayt 42

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Drew Nieman punt for 23 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.68

Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Valpo 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.26

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 18 yds to the Dayt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 7 yds to the Dayt 41

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the Dayt 40

3rd & 2Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.35

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 21 yds to the Dayt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Aaron Dawson run for 4 yds to the Dayt 15

2nd & 6Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.67

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Mason Henry and Drew Robertson for a loss of 3 yards to the Dayt 18

3rd & 9Penalty-15 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unnecessary Roughness enforced (-15 Yards) to the Dayt 33

4th & 24Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Brian Bartholomew 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.44

Jake Chisholm run for a loss of 4 yards to the Dayt 29

2nd & 14Interception0 ydsPPA -0.13

Shane Hamm pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Aaron Dawson run for 9 yds to the Dayt 12

2nd & 1Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.88

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Dayt 15

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.42

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Tyler Days for 12 yds to the Dayt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Dayt 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Aaron Dawson run for 2 yds to the Dayt 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Dayt 1

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.21

Michael Appel Jr. run for no gain to the Dayt 1

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Shane Hamm run for 5 yds to the Dayt 6

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.17

Michael Neel run for 5 yds to the Dayt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jake Chisholm run for 2 yds to the Dayt 13

2nd & 8Penalty+5 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, Offsides (Keyon Turner) to the Dayt 18

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Shane Hamm run for 2 yds to the Dayt 20

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.47

Jake Chisholm run for 2 yds to the Dayt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Shane Hamm pass complete to Luke Brenner for 8 yds to the Dayt 30

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Shane Hamm run for 9 yds to the Dayt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Michael Neel run for 7 yds to the Dayt 46

2nd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.85

Shane Hamm run for 12 yds to the Valpo 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.74

Shane Hamm pass complete to Kyle Hazell for 27 yds to the Valpo 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.54

Jake Chisholm run for a loss of 3 yards to the Valpo 18

2nd & 13Fumble Recovery (Own)+18 yds

run for a loss of 10 yards to the Valpo 10 Shane Hamm fumbled, recovered by Dayt Shane Hamm [NHSG] DAY fumbled snap, QB Keeper HAMM, Shane rush up the middle for a loss of 10 yards, HAMM, Shane fumbled at VAL28 forced by CHASTAIN, Logan, recovered by DAY HAMM, Shane at the VAL40, returned 12 yards to the VAL28 lateral to NEEL, Michael for 18 yards to the VAL10 (GRAVES, Colin;CHASTAIN, Logan).

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Shane Hamm run for 3 yds to the Valpo 7

4th & 2Field Goal Good+24 yds

Michael Denning 24 yd FG GOOD

0th & 11End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

[NHSG] Kneel down by APPEL, Mikey at VAL36 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

DAYTON Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jeremy Jonozzo) to the Dayt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Jeffery Vercher run for 7 yds to the Dayt 29

2nd & 3Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.25

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jeffery Vercher for a loss of 3 yards to the Dayt 32

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.25

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Matt Ross for 13 yds to the Dayt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Aaron Dawson run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brian Bartholomew KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Shane Hamm pass complete to Kyle Hazell for 1 yd to the Dayt 18

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Shane Hamm run for 8 yds to the Dayt 26

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.84

Jake Chisholm run for 4 yds to the Dayt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.77

Jake Chisholm run for 19 yds to the Dayt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.08

Shane Hamm pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.69

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 22 yds to the Valpo 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.26

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jake Vickers for a loss of 2 yards to the Valpo 45

3rd & 12Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.79

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Sam Schadek for a loss of 8 yards to the Valpo 37

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Shane Hamm run for 12 yds to the Dayt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.84

Shane Hamm pass complete to Derek Willits for 32 yds to the Valpo 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jake Chisholm run for 1 yd to the Valpo 25

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Shane Hamm run for 2 yds to the Valpo 23

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Shane Hamm run for 3 yds to the Valpo 20 DAYTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) declined

4th & 4Penalty+5 yds

DENNING, Michael field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at VAL27], score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, VAL Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the VAL20 to the VAL15 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Shane Hamm pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Shane Hamm run for 1 yd to the Valpo 14

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.94

Shane Hamm pass complete to Luke Brenner for 12 yds to the Valpo 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Shane Hamm pass complete to Kyle Hazell for 2 yds for a TD, (Michael Denning KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+34 yds

Michael Denning kickoff for 64 yds , Charlie Maxwell return for 34 yds to the Valpo 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Aaron Dawson run for 4 yds to the Valpo 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Charlie Maxwell for 3 yds to the Valpo 42

3rd & 3Penalty+10 yds

APPEL, Mikey pass to the left intercepted by DALTON, Logan at the DAY30 intended for CONTRERAS, Braden. Dalton return for 10 yards to the DAY40 (DAVIS, Solomon), clock 01:39. PENALTY DAY Holding enforced 10 yards from the VAL42 to the DAY48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.14

Aaron Dawson run for 28 yds to the Dayt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the Dayt 19

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Max Franco run for 1 yd to the Dayt 18

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Michael Appel Jr. pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+35 yds

Brian Bartholomew 35 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Brian Bartholomew kickoff for 60 yds , Luke Brenner return for 20 yds to the Dayt 25

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

VALPARAISO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ben Hines) to the Dayt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.36

Luke Brenner run for 15 yds to the DAYTON 37 for a 1ST down VALPARAISO Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the Valpo 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Jake Chisholm run for 7 yds to the Valpo 15

2nd & 3Interception0 ydsPPA -4.67

Shane Hamm pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

DAYTON Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the Valpo 7

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Aaron Dawson run for 2 yds to the Valpo 9

2nd & 3Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.15

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 23 yds to the Valpo 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 7 yds to the Valpo 39

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Jeffery Vercher run for no gain to the Valpo 39

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Aaron Dawson run for 1 yd to the Valpo 40

4th & 2Punt+32 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 37 yds, downed at the DAYTON 23 VALPARAISO Penalty, Illegal Motion (TEAM) to the Dayt 28

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.31

Shane Hamm run for 26 yds to the Valpo 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.53

Jake Chisholm run for 10 yds to the Valpo 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jake Chisholm run for 4 yds to the Valpo 32

2nd & 6Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.55

Shane Hamm run for 20 yds to the Valpo 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Shane Hamm pass complete to Luke Brenner for 5 yds Luke Brenner fumbled, recovered by Dayt

2nd & 5Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.68

Shane Hamm sacked by Ben Hines for a loss of 5 yards to the Valpo 12

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Shane Hamm run for 5 yds to the Valpo 7

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

DAYTON Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Valpo 12

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Michael Denning 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.43

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Matt Ross for 18 yds to the Valpo 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.91

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Ca'ron Coleman and Sam Schadek for a loss of 6 yards to the Valpo 32

2nd & 16Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.52

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Sam Schadek for a loss of 13 yards to the Valpo 19

3rd & 29Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.19

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 17 yds to the Valpo 36

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Evan Matthes punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Shane Hamm run for 6 yds to the Dayt 38

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Shane Hamm pass complete to Luke Brenner for 3 yds to the Dayt 41

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.19

Shane Hamm run for 3 yds to the Dayt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+11 yds

HAMM, Shane pass up the middle incomplete intended for BRENNER, Luke thrown to the VAL45; QB hurried by SPELMAN, Kevin. PENALTY VAL Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the VAL45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Shane Hamm pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Shane Hamm run for 4 yds to the Valpo 41

3rd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.76

Shane Hamm run for 9 yds to the Valpo 32 for a 1ST down

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Shane Hamm pass complete to Derek Willits for 5 yds to the Valpo 23

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jake Chisholm run for 4 yds to the Valpo 28

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.85

Jake Chisholm run for 23 yds for a TD, (Michael Denning KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Michael Denning kickoff for 62 yds , Charlie Maxwell return for 12 yds to the Valpo 15

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.73

Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Sam Schadek for a loss of 10 yards to the Valpo 5

2nd & 20Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.03

Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 7 yds to the Valpo 14

Situational Analysis

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
38%
21 plays
2nd
17%
6 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
53%
30 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
71%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th