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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Missouri State by 1.5

Home Win Probability

North Dakota 49%

Market (consensus)

North Dakota +5.5

Edge: North Dakota +5.5 (4.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Missouri StateMissouri State
71401031
North Dakota
317141448

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-710-710-1417-2126-2134-2141-2448-2448-31
North DakotaMissouri State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDMSNDTD472ydFG1047ydPUNT37ydPUNT3-13ydMISS953ydTD1380ydTD979ydTO10ydTD427ydTD270ydPUNT31ydFG954ydMISS48ydTD479ydPUNT3-2ydTD1369ydFG863ydTD576ydDOWNS721ydTD846ydTD859ydEND412yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Missouri State and North Dakota
StatisticMissouri StateNorth Dakota
Passing24-3922-30
Pass Yards271267
Rush Yards118248
Total Yards389515
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-125-10
Penalties5-504-29
Possession23:5536:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Missouri State
passing
Jason Shelley
24/39, 271 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Jacardia Wright
12 CAR, 97 YDS
receiving
Tyrone Scott
6 REC, 94 YDS
North Dakota
passing
Tommy Schuster
22/29, 267 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Tyler Hoosman
16 CAR, 147 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Garett Maag
5 REC, 104 YDS, 2 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+55 ydsPPA +3.28

Jacardia Wright run for 55 yds to the NDKTA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacardia Wright run for 3 yds to the NDKTA 20

2nd & 13Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 9 yds to the NDKTA 11

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.80

Jason Shelley pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 11 yds for a TD, (Jose Pizano KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 4 yds to the NDKTA 32

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Quincy Vaughn run for 3 yds to the NDKTA 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.93

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 9 yds to the NDKTA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 13 yds to the MoSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Tyler Hoosman for 8 yds to the MoSt 35

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.18

Tyler Hoosman run for 4 yds to the MoSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete to Bo Belquist

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Isaiah Smith run for 2 yds to the MoSt 29

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Tommy Schuster run for 4 yds to the MoSt 25

4th & 4Field Goal Good+42 yds

Brady Stevens 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MoSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 8 yds to the MoSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jacardia Wright

4th & 3Punt+5 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 43 yds , Bo Belquist returns for 5 yds to the NDKTA 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Tyler Hoosman run for 5 yds to the NDKTA 35

2nd & 5Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.65

Quincy Vaughn sacked by Ferrin Manuleleua for a loss of 10 yards to the NDKTA 25

3rd & 15Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.15

Tommy Schuster sacked by Kevin Ellis for a loss of 8 yards to the NDKTA 17

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Cade Peterson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Naveon Mitchell at the MoSt 34

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Cade Peterson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Naveon Mitchell at the MoSt 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.65

Jason Shelley pass complete to Celdon Manning for 18 yds to the NDKTA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.89

Jacardia Wright run for 16 yds to the NDKTA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jacardia Wright run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.59

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 11 yds to the NDKTA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 6 yds to the NDKTA 13

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Jason Shelley pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+30 yds

Jose Pizano 30 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 9 yds to the NDKTA 29

2nd & 1Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.90

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 15 yds to the NDKTA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Red Wilson for 11 yds to the MoSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Schuster,Tommy pass complete short right to Maag,Garett for 0 yards to the MSU45 PENALTY UND Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hagen,Sam) 5 yards from MSU45 to MSU50. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete to Bo Belquist

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Isaiah Smith run for 1 yd to the MoSt 49

3rd & 14Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.02

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 10 yds to the MoSt 39

4th & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +2.33

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 5 yds to the MoSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete to Bo Belquist

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.94

Tyler Hoosman run for 11 yds to the MoSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tyler Hoosman run for 5 yds to the MoSt 18

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Tyler Hoosman run for 6 yds to the MoSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Red Wilson run for 9 yds to the MoSt 3

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.92

Quincy Vaughn run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brady Stevens KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Brady Stevens kickoff for 65 yds , DVontae Key return for 21 yds to the MoSt 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.90

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 12 yds to the MoSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.29

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 28 yds to the NDKTA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Jason Shelley pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 6 yds to the NDKTA 33

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jason Shelley run for 3 yds to the NDKTA 30

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Jacardia Wright run for 5 yds to the NDKTA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.28

Jason Shelley pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 16 yds to the NDKTA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jason Shelley pass complete to Stetson Moore for 4 yds to the NDKTA 5

3rd & 5Penalty+3 yds

PENALTY UND Offside (Kelley,Kason) 3 yards from UND05 to UND02. NO PLAY.

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 2 yds for a TD, (Jose Pizano KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Jose Pizano kickoff for 65 yds , C.J. Siegel return for 32 yds to the NDKTA 32

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -1.48

Tommy Schuster pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.53

Jason Shelley run for 9 yds to the NDKTA 18

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.17

Jacardia Wright run for 5 yds to the NDKTA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Shelley,Jason pass incomplete short left to Jones,Jordan PENALTY UND Pass Interference (Ocansey,Edmund) 11 yard from UND13 to UND02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Trae Thompson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jose Pizano KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.60

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Isaiah Smith for 32 yds to the MoSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 38 yds for a TD, (Brady Stevens KICK), (Brady Stevens KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MoSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jahod Booker

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

4th & 9Punt+3 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 49 yds , Bo Belquist returns for 3 yds to the NDKTA 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete to Garett Maag

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Marcus Preston for 8 yds to the NDKTA 36

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Tommy Schuster run for 1 yd to the NDKTA 37

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY MSU Offside (McDonald,Kyriq) 5 yards from UND37 to UND42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.69

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Isaiah Smith for 11 yds to the NORDAKOTA 47 for a 1ST down MISSOURI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tahj Chambers) to the MoSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Isaiah Smith for 3 yds to the MoSt 29

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.47

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Isaiah Smith for 11 yds to the MoSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete

3rd & 10Field Goal Good+35 yds

Brady Stevens 35 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 3 yds to the NDKTA 26

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jacardia Wright run for 5 yds to the NDKTA 21

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Jason Shelley pass incomplete

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Jose Pizano 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Tyler Hoosman run for 7 yds to the NDKTA 28

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Tyler Hoosman run for 10 yds to the NDKTA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 7 yds to the NDKTA 45

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +4.24

Tyler Hoosman run for 55 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Brady Stevens kickoff for 63 yds , DVontae Key return for 28 yds to the NORDAKOTA 37 MISSOURI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Hunter Wood) to the MoSt 20

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MoSt 19

2nd & 11Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.33

Jason Shelley sacked by Ben McNaboe for a loss of 6 yards to the MoSt 13

3rd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Jacardia Wright run for 5 yds to the MoSt 18

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bo Belquist at the NDKTA 31

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Tyler Hoosman run for 7 yds to the NDKTA 38

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Red Wilson run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 40

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Quincy Vaughn run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Shotgun Schuster,Tommy sacked for loss of 0 yards to the UND42 (Young,Von) PENALTY UND Holding (Kilty,Easton) 10 yards from UND42 to UND32. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Tommy Schuster pass incomplete to Adam Zavalney

2nd & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaiah Smith run for 6 yds to the NDKTA 38

3rd & 14Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +4.04

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 29 yds to the MoSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 8 yds to the MoSt 25

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Tyler Hoosman run for 3 yds to the MoSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.12

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Adam Zavalney for 10 yds to the MoSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Tyler Hoosman run for 3 yds to the MoSt 9

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Isaiah Smith run for 6 yds to the MoSt 3

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.53

Quincy Vaughn run for 2 yds to the MoSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Quincy Vaughn 1 Yd Run (Tommy Schuster Pass to Bo Belquist for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Brady Stevens kickoff for 63 yds , DVontae Key return for 20 yds to the MoSt 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 8 yds to the MoSt 30

2nd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Kevon Latulas run for 11 yds to the MoSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 2 yds to the MoSt 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +2.82

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 46 yds to the NDKTA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

Shotgun Shelley,Jason pass incomplete short left to Jones,Jordan PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Mitchell,Naveon) 15 yards from UND11 to UND26. NO PLAY.

2nd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Naveon Mitchell

3rd & 25Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.26

Jason Shelley pass complete to Lance Mason for 11 yds to the NDKTA 15

4th & 14Field Goal Good+32 yds

Jose Pizano 32 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Jose Pizano kickoff for 65 yds , C.J. Siegel return for 24 yds to the NDKTA 24

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Tyler Hoosman run for 7 yds to the NDKTA 31

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Tyler Hoosman run for 8 yds to the NDKTA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Isaiah Smith run for 2 yds to the NDKTA 41

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Isaiah Smith run for 5 yds to the NDKTA 46

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +5.44

I. Smith run for 54 yds for a TD, (B. Stevens KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the MoSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Jacardia Wright run for 8 yds to the MoSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Jason Shelley pass complete to Terique Owens for 11 yds to the MoSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.12

Jason Shelley run for 9 yds to the NDKTA 42

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jason Shelley pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Hunter Wood

4th & 1Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.85

Jason Shelley sacked by Devon Krzanowski for a loss of 12 yards to the MoSt 46

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Tyler Hoosman run for 5 yds to the MoSt 41

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.47

Tyler Hoosman run for 6 yds to the MoSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Isaiah Smith run for 2 yds to the MoSt 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Tyler Hoosman for 10 yds to the MoSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Red Wilson run for 2 yds to the MoSt 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Bo Belquist for 2 yds to the MoSt 23

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tyler Hoosman run for 5 yds to the MoSt 18

4th & 5Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +3.59

Tommy Schuster pass complete to Garett Maag for 18 yds for a TD, (Brady Stevens KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Brady Stevens kickoff for 35 yds , Connor Lair return for 11 yds to the MoSt 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 2 yds to the MoSt 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.58

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 29 yds to the NDKTA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jacardia Wright for 6 yds to the NDKTA 22

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.01

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 8 yds to the NDKTA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Naveon Mitchell

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan Jones

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jason Shelley pass complete to Raylen Sharpe for 5 yds to the NDKTA 9

4th & 5Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.17

Jason Shelley pass complete to Naveon Mitchell for 9 yds for a TD, (Jose Pizano KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Gaven Ziebarth run for 7 yds to the MoSt 42

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.14

Gaven Ziebarth run for 5 yds to the MoSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

run for no gain to the MoSt 37

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

run for no gain to the MoSt 37

Situational Analysis

Missouri State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
25 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
70%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

North Dakota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
60%
30 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
67%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
60%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays