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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Missouri State by 4

Home Win Probability

Central Arkansas 39%

Market (consensus)

Central Arkansas +16

Edge: Central Arkansas +16 (12.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Missouri StateMissouri State
0173727
Central Arkansas
0001414

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-30-177-26
Central ArkansasMissouri State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSCAMSCAMSCAMSCAMSCAMSCAMSCAMSCAMSCAMSCACAMSCAMSCAPUNT3-12ydPUNT33ydPUNT38ydMISS1065ydPUNT635ydPUNT511ydTO34ydPUNT629ydFG1461ydPUNT416ydTD862ydTO325ydTD557ydPUNT35ydPUNT33ydMISS1163ydFG960ydTD1278ydTO10ydPUNT36ydTD213ydPUNT639ydTO21ydMISS46ydDOWNS1143yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Missouri State and Central Arkansas
StatisticMissouri StateCentral Arkansas
Passing18-3018-31
Pass Yards266173
Rush Yards90168
Total Yards356341
Turnovers22
3rd Down4-131-12
Penalties8-827-49
Possession29:4430:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Missouri State
passing
Jason Shelley
18/30, 266 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jason Shelley
13 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Tyrone Scott
8 REC, 160 YDS
Central Arkansas
passing
Will McElvain
18/31, 173 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Darius Hale
18 CAR, 99 YDS
receiving
Myles Butler
6 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.59

Jason Shelley sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MoSt 25

2nd & 17Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Jacardia Wright run for 3 yds to the MoSt 28

3rd & 14Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.20

Jason Shelley sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MoSt 20

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

Jose Pizano kickoff for 65 yds , Christian Cain return for 9 yds to the CArk 44 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Offensive holding (Cole Brown) to the CArk 4

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Jose Pizano kickoff for 61 yds , Christian Cain return for 22 yds to the CArk 26

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Jose Pizano kickoff for 65 yds , Christian Richmond return for 22 yds to the CArk 22

1st & 10Kickoff Return Touchdown+98 yds

Montrae Braswell 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Jose Pizano Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jake Ward kickoff for 42 yds , Trae Thompson return for no gain to the MoSt 19

4th & 7Punt+2 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 40 yds , Tyrone Scott returns for 2 yds to the MoSt 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Darius Hale run for 2 yds to the CArk 36

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Will McElvain run for 1 yd to the CArk 37

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

pass incomplete to Jared Long

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 9 yds to the MoSt 34

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the MoSt 33

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Hayden Ray 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Darius Hale run for 7 yds to the CArk 25

2nd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.34

Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 16 yds to the CArk 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

pass incomplete to Jared Long

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (Jake Ward) to the CArk 36

2nd & 15Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.72

Kylin James run for 31 yds to the MoSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Kylin James run for 4 yds to the MoSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.33

Darius Hale run for 8 yds to the MoSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

pass incomplete to John David White

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Will McElvain run for 5 yds to the MoSt 16

3rd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Darius Hale run for a loss of 1 yard to the MoSt 17

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Larry Wright III, broken up by Darin Davenport

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 1 yd to the MoSt 21

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Kevon Latulas run for 4 yds to the MoSt 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.22

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 27 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jacardia Wright run for 4 yds to the CArk 44

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Jason Shelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 45

3rd & 4Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.71

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the CArk 26

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -0.67

Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for 3 yds to the CArk 18 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, illegal block (Jamal Mull) to the CArk 9

1st & 16Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.10

Kylin James run for 2 yds to the CArk 11

2nd & 14Penalty+15 yds

MISSOURI ST Penalty, personal foul (Ferrin Manuleleua) to the CArk 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Christian Richmond run for 2 yds to the CArk 28

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the CArk 32

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+41 ydsPPA -0.09

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 41 yds Jason Shelley fumbled, recovered by CArk Demetrius Charles

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the MoSt 27

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott

1st & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.42

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Myles Kitt-Denton for a 1ST down MISSOURI ST Penalty, roughing passer (Devin Goree) to the CArk 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Darius Hale run for 11 yds to the MoSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.42

Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 10 yds to the MoSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Darius Hale run for 2 yds to the MoSt 30

2nd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.96

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MoSt 36

3rd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Clifton McDowell run for 2 yds to the MoSt 34

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

CENTRAL ARK Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MoSt 39

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jacardia Wright run for 6 yds to the MoSt 26

2nd & 4Penalty+15 yds

CENTRAL ARK Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jace McCoy) to the MoSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Jason Shelley run for 10 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

pass incomplete to Jordan Jones

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.22

Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

3rd & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +3.11

Jason Shelley run for 15 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.09

Jason Shelley sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the CArk 42

2nd & 17Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.37

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 17 yds to the CArk 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.81

Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the CArk 28

2nd & 13Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.97

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 15 yds to the CArk 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jacardia Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 14

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

MISSOURI ST Penalty, false start (Ryan Suliafu) to the CArk 19

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jacardia Wright, broken up by Caden Brown

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by T.D. Williams

4th & 16Field Goal Good+36 yds

Jose Pizano 36 yd FG GOOD

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.32

Darius Hale run for 11 yds to the CArk 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Darius Hale run for 2 yds to the CArk 17

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Darius Hale run for 3 yds to the CArk 20

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

pass incomplete to Christian Richmond

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Jason Shelley 5 Yd Run (Jose Pizano Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 14 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 11 yds to the CArk 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

pass incomplete to Jacardia Wright

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MISSOURI ST Penalty, false start (Jordan Jones) to the CArk 42

2nd & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 3 yds to the CArk 39

3rd & 12Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.65

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 24 yds to the CArk 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.67

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 10 yds to the CArk 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Raylen Sharpe, broken up by Detravion Green

2nd & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -2.92

Will McElvain pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.82

Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 5 yds to the CArk 31 for a 1ST down MISSOURI ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Tahj Chambers) to the CArk 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 5 yds to the MoSt 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

pass incomplete to Jordan Jones

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +3.08

Hunter Wood 10 Yd pass from Jason Shelley (Jose Pizano Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.11

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 14 yds to the CArk 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +0.84

Jason Shelley run for 33 yds to the CArk 10 for a 1ST down

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 42 yds , Montrae Braswell returns for no gain to the MoSt 27

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70
2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

CENTRAL ARK Penalty, delay of game (Will McElvain) to the CArk 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Will McElvain pass complete to Darius Hale for 4 yds to the CArk 24

3rd & 11Penalty-5 yds

CENTRAL ARK Penalty, false start (Myles Butler) to the CArk 19

3rd & 16Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.20

Will McElvain pass complete to Jared Long for 11 yds to the CArk 30

4th & 7Punt+4 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 41 yds , Christian Richmond returns for 4 yds to the CArk 33

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77
2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Andrew Cunningham run for 2 yds to the MoSt 29

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jason Shelley run for 1 yd to the MoSt 30

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+22 yds

Hayden Ray 22 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Darius Hale run for 14 yds to the CArk 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Darius Hale run for 9 yds to the MoSt 44

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.13

Kylin James run for 7 yds to the MoSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.40

Kylin James run for 15 yds to the MoSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Kylin James run for a loss of 1 yard to the MoSt 23

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jared Long, broken up by Montrae Braswell

3rd & 11Penalty+12 yds

MISSOURI ST Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Anthony Payne) to the MoSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Darius Hale run for 2 yds to the MoSt 9

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Darius Hale run for 4 yds to the MoSt 5

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the MoSt 4

4th & 6Field Goal Good+37 yds

Jose Pizano 37 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Celdon Manning run for 8 yds to the MoSt 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 3 yds to the MoSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Jacardia Wright run for 9 yds to the MoSt 40

2nd & 1Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.56

Jason Shelley pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 36 yds to the CArk 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.96

MISSOURI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Landon Bebee) to the CArk 34

1st & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Jacardia Wright run for 6 yds to the CArk 28

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Jason Shelley run for 8 yds to the CArk 20

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by T.D. Williams

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 13 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 2 yds to the CArk 37

3rd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.46

Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 23 yds to the MoSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Will McElvain run for 2 yds to the MoSt 38

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

pass incomplete to Myles Butler

4th & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.99

Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 15 yds to the MoSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.54

Will McElvain pass complete to Christian Richmond for 10 yds to the MoSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Darius Hale run for 1 yd to the MoSt 12

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.78

Will McElvain 12 Yd Run (Hayden Ray Kick)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-9 ydsPPA -0.73

Jahod Booker run for a loss of 9 yards to the MoSt 13 Jahod Booker fumbled, recovered by CArk Corley Hooper

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Chandler Caughron punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 3 yds to the CArk 28

2nd & 7Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.98

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the CArk 16

3rd & 19Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.30

Kylin James run for 15 yds to the CArk 31

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.36

Myles Butler 7 Yd pass from Will McElvain (Hayden Ray Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Darius Hale run for 6 yds to the MoSt 7

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Grant Burkett punt for 22 yds

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.66

Jacardia Wright run for 10 yds to the MoSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jacardia Wright run for 1 yd to the MoSt 30

2nd & 9Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.11

Jason Shelley pass complete to Kevon Latulas for 27 yds to the CArk 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94
2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Cameron Godfrey

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Jason Shelley pass complete to Jahod Booker for 1 yd to the CArk 42

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Will McElvain pass incomplete to John David White, broken up by Von Young

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Will McElvain run for 1 yd to the CArk 21

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Jose Pizano 43 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jacardia Wright run for 5 yds to the CArk 27

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jason Shelley pass complete to Lance Mason for 3 yds to the CArk 24

3rd & 2Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.07

Jason Shelley sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 26

2nd & 11Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.02

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the MoSt 44

3rd & 16Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.73

Darius Hale run for 13 yds to the MoSt 31

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.63

Will McElvain pass incomplete to Jarrod Barnes, broken up by Caleb Blake

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 24

2nd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.98

Will McElvain pass complete to Jarrod Barnes for 14 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

pass incomplete to John David White

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.19

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the CArk 30

3rd & 18Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.43

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 12 yds to the CArk 42

4th & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.97

Will McElvain pass complete to Kylin James for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Will McElvain pass complete to Myles Butler for 12 yds to the MoSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Will McElvain sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the MoSt 39

Situational Analysis

Missouri State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
6 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
4th

Central Arkansas

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
33 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
23%
13 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
1 play