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← Back to GamesOct 8, 2022Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Northern Iowa by 9.5

Home Win Probability

Northern Iowa 71%

Market (consensus)

Northern Iowa -8

Edge: Northern Iowa -8 (1.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 8, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Illinois State
10103023
Northern Iowa
770721

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-1015-2021-23
Northern IowaIllinois State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NIISNIISNIISNIISISNIISNINIISNIISPUNT38ydTD1379ydTD571ydFG1259ydPUNT511ydTD1368ydTD674ydFG1469ydFG1250ydUncategorized752ydPUNT38ydTD1492ydUncategorized838ydMISS1363ydDOWNS1041ydPUNT33yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Illinois State and Northern Iowa
StatisticIllinois StateNorthern Iowa
Passing29-4114-24
Pass Yards257212
Rush Yards152154
Total Yards409366
Turnovers01
3rd Down13-205-11
Penalties3-202-10
Possession35:2524:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Illinois State
passing
Zack Annexstad
29/41, 257 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Nigel White
16 CAR, 69 YDS
receiving
Tanner Taula
7 REC, 63 YDS
Northern Iowa
passing
Theo Day
14/23, 212 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Vance McShane
13 CAR, 90 YDS
receiving
Sam Schnee
5 REC, 75 YDS

Play-by-Play

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Noah Pettinger punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

pass incomplete to Deion McShane

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 8 yds to the NIowa 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

pass incomplete to Quan Hampton

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Bryson Deming 3 Yd pass from Zack Annexstad (Ian Wagner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.99

Wenkers Wright run for 13 yds to the IllSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Wenkers Wright run for 5 yds to the IllSt 39

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Wenkers Wright run for 4 yds to the IllSt 43

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.46

Wenkers Wright run for 6 yds to the IllSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

pass incomplete to Bryson Deming

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tanner Taula for 4 yds to the NIowa 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Wenkers Wright for 14 yds to the NIowa 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Jerome Buckner, broken up by Edwin Dearman

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Wenkers Wright for 5 yds to the NIowa 28

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.85

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Wenkers Wright for 7 yds to the NIowa 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.94

Nigel White run for 17 yds to the NIowa 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Nigel White run for 1 yd to the NIowa 3

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +5.35

Theo Day pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 53 yds for a TD, (Matthew Cook KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Theo Day pass complete to Quan Hampton for 5 yds to the NIowa 34

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.92

Dom Williams run for 6 yds to the NIowa 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Theo Day pass complete to Alex Allen for 5 yds to the NIowa 45

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Theo Day run for 2 yds to the NIowa 47

4th & 10Field Goal Good+33 yds

Ian Wagner 33 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Wenkers Wright run for 1 yd to the IllSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

pass incomplete to Jerome Buckner

3rd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.61

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tanner Taula for 17 yds to the IllSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Wenkers Wright run for 3 yds to the IllSt 46

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.54

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Nigel White for 11 yds to the NIowa 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

pass incomplete to Tanner Taula

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Nigel White run for 1 yd to the NIowa 42

3rd & 9Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.56

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 26 yds to the NIowa 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

pass incomplete to Tanner Taula

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

pass incomplete to Tanner Taula

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

pass incomplete to Bryson Deming

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Vance McShane run for 8 yds to the NIowa 30

2nd & 2Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Theo Day pass complete to Vance McShane for 11 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Vance McShane run for 3 yds to the NIowa 44

2nd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.95

Theo Day sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NIowa 36

3rd & 15Penalty+5 yds

ILLINOIS ST Penalty, off-side (Zeke Vandenburgh) to the NIowa 41

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.72

Theo Day sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NIowa 33

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Noah Pettinger punt for 35 yds

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Zack Annexstad run for 6 yds to the NIowa 3

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.87

Wenkers Wright run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ian Wagner KICK)

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Dom Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Cook KICK)

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Nigel White for 5 yds to the IllSt 49

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.11

Zack Annexstad run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 7 yds to the NIowa 43

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Nigel White run for 1 yd to the NIowa 42

3rd & 2Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.48

Nigel White run for 20 yds to the NIowa 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Nigel White run for 3 yds to the NIowa 19

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Nigel White run for 3 yds to the NIowa 16

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Nigel White for 8 yds to the NIowa 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

pass incomplete to Tanner Taula

2nd & 8Field Goal Good+25 yds

Ian Wagner 25 Yd Field Goal

4th & 5Field Goal Good+41 yds

Ian Wagner 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

pass incomplete to Tanner Taula

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.22

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Jalen Carr for 17 yds to the IllSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Wenkers Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the IllSt 41

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Jalen Carr for 5 yds to the IllSt 46

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.38

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tanner Taula for 9 yds to the NIowa 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Wenkers Wright for 2 yds to the NIowa 43

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07
3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.28

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tanner Taula for 13 yds to the NIowa 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Nigel White run for 4 yds to the NIowa 26

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

pass incomplete to Jerome Buckner

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Nigel White for 1 yd to the NIowa 25

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Vance McShane run for 6 yds to the NIowa 24

2nd & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 17 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Vance McShane run for 6 yds to the NIowa 47

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Vance McShane run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

ILLINOIS ST Penalty, off-side (Zeke Vandenburgh) to the IllSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Theo Day pass complete to Vance McShane for 3 yds to the IllSt 42

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Vance McShane run for 12 yds to the IllSt 30 for a 1ST down

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jack Takerian punt for 41 yds , Quan Hampton returns for no gain to the NIowa 8

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Nigel White run for 1 yd to the IllSt 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tanner Taula for 4 yds to the IllSt 48

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Zack Annexstad pass complete to J'Kalon Carter for 3 yds to the NIowa 49

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Dom Williams run for 3 yds to the NIowa 11

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Dom Williams run for 1 yd to the NIowa 12

3rd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.94

Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 23 yds to the NIowa 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Dom Williams run for 3 yds to the NIowa 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

pass incomplete to Deion McShane

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, false start (Deion McShane) to the NIowa 33

3rd & 12Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.92

Theo Day run for 14 yds to the NIowa 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.28

Vance McShane run for 23 yds to the IllSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Vance McShane run for 6 yds to the IllSt 24

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.03

Theo Day run for 8 yds to the IllSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 4 yds to the IllSt 12

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Vance McShane run for 3 yds to the IllSt 9

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Vance McShane run for 2 yds to the IllSt 7

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.84

Theo Day run for 1 yd to the IllSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Sam Schnee run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Cook KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.34

Theo Day pass complete to Dom Williams for 28 yds to the NIowa 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Theo Day pass incomplete to Sam Schnee, broken up by Deandre Lamont

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

pass incomplete to Sam Schnee

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Theo Day run for 9 yds to the IllSt 44

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.99

Theo Day run for 1 yd to the IllSt 43 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

pass incomplete to Quan Hampton

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.72

Theo Day sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the IllSt 43

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+29 yds

Ian Wagner 29 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Zack Annexstad pass incomplete to Nigel White, broken up by Bryce Flater

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Nigel White run for 6 yds to the IllSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.24

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Daniel Sobkowicz for 13 yds to the IllSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Nigel White run for 2 yds to the IllSt 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Nigel White for 1 yd to the IllSt 47

3rd & 7Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.05

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Jalen Carr for 22 yds to the NIowa 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Pha'leak Brown run for 1 yd to the NIowa 30

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

ILLINOIS ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Kobe Rios) to the NIowa 40

2nd & 19Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.08

Zack Annexstad pass complete to Tanner Taula for 10 yds to the NIowa 30

3rd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.41

Zack Annexstad run for 10 yds to the NIowa 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Nigel White run for 8 yds to the NIowa 12

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Wenkers Wright run for 1 yd to the NIowa 11

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.53

Nigel White run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 12

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.26

pass incomplete to Sam Schnee

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

pass incomplete to Deion McShane

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Vance McShane run for 4 yds to the NIowa 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.65

Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 10 yds to the NIowa 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 11 yds to the NIowa 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Vance McShane run for 2 yds to the NIowa 47

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.72

Vance McShane run for 12 yds to the IllSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, false start (Matthew Vanderslice) to the IllSt 46

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Theo Day run for 5 yds to the IllSt 41

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Dom Williams run for 2 yds to the IllSt 39

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Theo Day pass incomplete, broken up by Zeke Vandenburgh

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59
4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jack Takerian punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Nigel White run for 1 yd to the IllSt 40

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Nigel White run for 2 yds to the IllSt 42

Situational Analysis

Illinois State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
23%
22 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
31%
13 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
75%
8 plays
75%
8 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Northern Iowa

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
50%
18 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
6 plays
30%
10 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play