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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2022Week 12

House Prediction

Model Margin

Tarleton State by 25.3

Home Win Probability

Tarleton State 92%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Tarleton State -18

Edge: Tarleton State -18 (7.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Houston Christian
07007
Tarleton State
28714049

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-021-028-028-735-742-749-7
Tarleton StateHouston Christian

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20HCHCTSHCTSHCHCTSHCHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSTD30ydPUNT38ydTD469ydPUNT510ydTD973ydTD3-1ydPUNT30ydMISS823ydPUNT3-9ydTD334ydTO257ydTO3-11ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT514ydTD1398ydPUNT518ydEND2-2ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT37ydTD490ydPUNT614ydPUNT47ydUncategorized39ydTD557ydTO321ydDOWNS726ydPUNT32ydPUNT31ydPUNT934ydEND842yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Houston Christian and Tarleton State
StatisticHouston ChristianTarleton State
Passing19-3613-24
Pass Yards156207
Rush Yards-21309
Total Yards135516
Turnovers42
3rd Down2-166-12
Penalties8-695-65
Possession25:0434:56

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Houston Christian
passing
Justin Fomby
17/32, 152 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Nate Livingston
9 CAR, 24 YDS
receiving
Deon Cormier
5 REC, 35 YDS
Tarleton State
passing
Beau Allen
13/23, 207 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Derrel Kelley III
24 CAR, 239 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Darius Cooper
6 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the HstnB 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

3rd & 10Interception Return Touchdown+26 ydsPPA -6.79

Josh Kemp 26 Yd Interception Return (Adrian Guzman Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 5 yds to the HstnB 23

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deon Cormier for 3 yds to the HstnB 26

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 43 yds, downed at the trlst 31

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Derrel Kelley III run for 4 yds to the trlst 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+59 ydsPPA +3.70

Beau Allen pass complete to Darius Cooper for 59 yds to the HstnB 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the HstnB 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Derrel Kelley III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adrian Guzman KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Nate Livingston run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 24

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.27

Deuce McMillan run for 7 yds to the HstnB 31

3rd & 4Penalty+10 yds

FOMBY, Justin pass to the right incomplete intended for LIVINGSTON, Nate thrown to the HCU45. PENALTY TAR Pass Interference on COLLINS, Bryson enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the HCU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.30

Justin Fomby sacked by Jalen Carr for a loss of 6 yards to the HstnB 35

3rd & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.17

Nate Livingston run for no gain to the HstnB 35

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 38 yds, downed at the trlst 27

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Derrel Kelley III run for 9 yds to the trlst 36

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.45

Derrel Kelley III run for 10 yds to the trlst 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Beau Allen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+36 ydsPPA +2.75

Derrel Kelley III run for 36 yds to the HstnB 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Beau Allen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.40

Beau Allen pass complete to Antwoine Ware for 9 yds to the HstnB 9

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.85

Ontario Douglas run for 5 yds to the HstnB 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Ontario Douglas run for 2 yds to the HstnB 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Beau Allen pass complete to Jaden Smith for 2 yds for a TD, (Adrian Guzman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Justin Fomby pass complete to Desmond Young for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

3rd & 11Interception Return Touchdown+30 ydsPPA -6.83

Donovan Banks 30 Yd Interception Return (Adrian Guzman Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 23 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the HstnB 48

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.67

Beau Allen pass complete to Antwoine Ware for 10 yds to the HstnB 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Beau Allen pass complete to Jaden Smith for 9 yds to the HstnB 29

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.41

Derrel Kelley III run for 4 yds to the HstnB 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Beau Allen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Beau Allen pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Beau Allen pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Adrian Guzman 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Sack-18 ydsPPA -1.31

Justin Fomby sacked by Javier Duran for a loss of 18 yards to the HstnB 7

2nd & 28Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

3rd & 28Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.01

Justin Fomby pass complete to Nate Livingston for 9 yds to the HstnB 16

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 42 yds , returns for no gain to the trlst 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Ismail Mahdi run for 7 yds to the trlst 27

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Nate Livingston run for 3 yds to the trlst 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 24 yds for a TD, (Nery Enriquez KICK)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.38

Derrel Kelley III run for 16 yds to the HstnB 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+41 ydsPPA -3.52

Beau Allen pass complete to Darius Cooper for 41 yds Darius Cooper fumbled, recovered by HstnB Caleb Flagg

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.97

Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 4 yards to the HstnB 48

2nd & 14Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.95

Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 47

3rd & 15Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.66

Justin Fomby sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the HstnB 41

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the HstnB 40

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Beau Allen pass incomplete

3rd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.63

Beau Allen sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the HstnB 44

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 14 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Justin Fomby pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 5 yds to the HstnB 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.31

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deon Cormier for 10 yds to the HstnB 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.59

Justin Fomby pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 43

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Justin Fomby pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 6 yds to the HstnB 49

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Delay Of Game (Xavier Toliver) to the HstnB 44

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 54 yds, downed at the trlst 2

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Derrel Kelley III run for 9 yds to the trlst 11

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the trlst 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.14

Beau Allen pass complete to Darius Cooper for 29 yds to the trlst 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Derrel Kelley III run for 4 yds to the trlst 46

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Beau Allen pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.17

Beau Allen pass complete to Shawn McFarland for 6 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Derrel Kelley III run for 5 yds to the HstnB 43

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the HstnB 41

3rd & 3Penalty+9 yds

ALLEN, Beau pass to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Jaden thrown to the HCU30. PENALTY HCU Pass Interference on HARGROVE, Devion enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the HCU32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

TARLETON ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the HstnB 47

1st & 25Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.25

Ontario Douglas run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 28Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.44

Beau Allen run for 9 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST down HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Personal Foul (Rodney Dansby) to the HstnB 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+7 yds

HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Face mask (7 yards) (Xavier Toliver) to the HstnB 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.61

Beau Allen run for a loss of 5 yards to the HstnB 14

2nd & 14Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.03

Beau Allen pass complete to Darius Cooper for 14 yds for a TD, (Adrian Guzman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Justin Fomby pass complete to Adrian Green for 9 yds to the HstnB 35

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deon Cormier for 3 yds to the HstnB 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Justin Fomby run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 36

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

2nd & 12Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deon Cormier for 8 yds to the HstnB 44

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Carr at the trlst 7

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the trlst 8

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.21

Derrel Kelley III run for a loss of 3 yards to the trlst 5

0th & 9End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Derrel Kelley III run for 4 yds to the trlst 42

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Beau Allen pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.06

Beau Allen sacked by Delvin Mason for a loss of 7 yards to the trlst 35

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 25 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Justin Fomby run for 4 yds to the HstnB 44

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Nate Livingston run for 4 yds to the HstnB 48

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Nate Livingston run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jalen Carr at the trlst 10

1st & 10Rush+83 ydsPPA +4.60

Derrel Kelley III run for 83 yds to the HstnB 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Ontario Douglas run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 8

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Ontario Douglas run for 5 yds to the HstnB 3

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Beau Allen pass complete to DeJuan Miller for 3 yds for a TD, (Adrian Guzman KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.19

Justin Fomby run for a loss of 3 yards to the HstnB 27

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.41

Justin Fomby pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 24 yds to the trlst 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Justin Fomby pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.26

Justin Fomby sacked by Josh Kemp for a loss of 7 yards to the HstnB 44

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Bryon Broussard at the trlst 8

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.46

Derrel Kelley III run for 12 yds to the trlst 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the trlst 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Beau Allen pass complete to Darius Cooper for 5 yds to the trlst 25

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

ALLEN, Beau scrambles to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the TAR32 (KENNEDY, Peyton), out of bounds. PENALTY TAR Holding on WHITEHEAD, Austin enforced 10 yards from the TAR25 to the TAR15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Beau Allen pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt+4 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 41 yds , Branden Walker returns for 4 yds to the HstnB 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Justin Fomby pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 3 yds to the trlst 49

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, False Start (Edouard Paradis) to the HstnB 46

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Ismail Mahdi run for no gain to the HstnB 46

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.21

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deon Cormier for 11 yds to the trlst 43

4th & 1Penalty0 yds

FOMBY, Justin pass to the right complete for 13 yards to FORD, Xzavier caught at the TAR35 and advanced to the TAR30 (SMITH, Blake), out of bounds, clock 03:30. PENALTY HCU Illegal Touch-Pass on FORD, Xzavier enforced 0 yards from the TAR43 to the TAR43, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.05

Beau Allen pass complete to DeJuan Miller for 13 yds to the HstnB 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.65

Derrel Kelley III run for 16 yds to the HstnB 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Beau Allen pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+10 yds

ALLEN, Beau pass to the right incomplete intended for COOPER, Darius thrown to the HCU3. PENALTY HCU Holding on DANSBY, Rodney enforced 10 yards from the HCU28 to the HCU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.13

Derrel Kelley III run for 15 yds to the HstnB 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adrian Guzman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Justin Fomby pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 26 yds to the trlst 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Justin Fomby pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 9 yds to the trlst 40

2nd & 1Sack-14 ydsPPA -3.97

Justin Fomby sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the HstnB 46

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Deangelo Rosemond run for 9 yds to the HstnB 37

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.47

Deangelo Rosemond run for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 39

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.24

Deangelo Rosemond run for 10 yds to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Deangelo Rosemond run for 5 yds to the HstnB 24

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Deangelo Rosemond run for 3 yds to the HstnB 21 Deangelo Rosemond fumbled, recovered by trlst Deangelo Rosemond

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Deangelo Rosemond run for 1 yd to the HstnB 20

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.64

Deangelo Rosemond run for no gain to the HstnB 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the HstnB 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Scott Pfeiffer pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.17

Scott Pfeiffer pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for no gain to the HstnB 22

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bryon Broussard at the trlst 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Deangelo Rosemond run for 2 yds to the trlst 39

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.96

Deangelo Rosemond run for a loss of 1 yard to the trlst 38

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Marco Siderman pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jake Walrath punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Branden Walker at the HstnB 26

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Nate Livingston run for no gain to the HstnB 26

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

AJ Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.16

Nate Livingston run for 12 yds to the HstnB 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

AJ Wilson run for 4 yds to the HstnB 42

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.11

Nate Livingston run for 6 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Nate Livingston run for 1 yd to the HstnB 49

2nd & 9Penalty-15 yds

MAHDI, Ismail rush up the middle for no gain to the HCU49 (ROBERTSON, Makody). PENALTY HCU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BLAKE, Spencer enforced 15 yards from the HCU49 to the HCU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 24Penalty+15 yds

WILSON, AJ pass to the left incomplete intended for GREEN, Adrian thrown to the HCU45. PENALTY TAR Pass Interference on BROUSSARD, Bryon enforced 15 yards TAR Personal Foul on UMANMIELEN, Prince enforced 15 yards from the HCU49 to the TAR36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.15

AJ Wilson sacked by Robert Rios for a loss of 7 yards to the trlst 43

2nd & 17Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.11

Ismail Mahdi run for a loss of 1 yard to the trlst 44

3rd & 18Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

AJ Wilson pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 4 yds to the trlst 40

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 36 yds, downed at the trlst 4

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Deangelo Rosemond run for 9 yds to the trlst 13

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.76

Deangelo Rosemond run for a loss of 1 yard to the trlst 12

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Kristian Dalton run for 8 yds to the trlst 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Kristian Dalton run for 2 yds to the trlst 22

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Kristian Dalton run for 1 yd to the trlst 23

3rd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.50

Marco Siderman run for 19 yds to the trlst 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kristian Dalton run for 6 yds to the trlst 48

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.24

[NHSG] Kneel down by SIDERMAN, Marco at TAR46 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Houston Christian

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
25 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
14%
7 plays
33%
9 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
4th

Tarleton State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
48%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
50%
10 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play