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← Back to GamesSep 24, 2022Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas State by 9.9

Home Win Probability

Texas State 66%

Market (consensus)

Texas State -26.5

Edge: Houston Christian +26.5 (16.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 24, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Houston Christian
00000
Texas StateTexas State
7173734

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-024-027-034-0
Texas StateHouston Christian

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTSHCTO647ydPUNT616ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT35ydTD1185ydPUNT36ydTD780ydPUNT926ydPUNT540ydTO10ydTD332ydPUNT517ydFG1578ydPUNT816ydPUNT3-8ydDOWNS716ydFG1251ydPUNT35ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-11ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT514ydTD1191ydEND27yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Houston Christian and Texas State
StatisticHouston ChristianTexas State
Passing23-3627-41
Pass Yards103362
Rush Yards39117
Total Yards142479
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-155-14
Penalties8-756-45
Possession24:5535:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Houston Christian
passing
Justin Fomby
23/36, 103 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
RJ Smith
9 CAR, 24 YDS
receiving
Vernon Harrell
2 REC, 26 YDS
defense
Texas State
passing
Layne Hatcher
27/41, 362 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Lincoln Pare
19 CAR, 84 YDS
receiving
Marcell Barbee
6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 6 yds to the TexSt 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 34

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.85

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.19

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 34 yds to the HstnB 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.24

Layne Hatcher pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.24

RJ Smith run for no gain to the HstnB 1

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

RJ Smith run for 4 yds to the HstnB 5

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.91

Justin Fomby pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 16 yds to the HstnB 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Justin Fomby pass complete to Joshlyn McCarter for 3 yds to the HstnB 24

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

RJ Smith run for 2 yds to the HstnB 26

3rd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.49

Justin Fomby sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the HstnB 17

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 43

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 43

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Branden Walker at the HstnB 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 5 yds to the HstnB 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Deon Cormier

3rd & 5Penalty0 yds

HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Illegal Formation (Xavier Toliver) declined

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 55 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.96

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 26 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn Hawkins

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles Brown

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.11

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the HstnB 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.89

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 17 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the HstnB 26

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.00

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the HstnB 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the HstnB 19

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.21

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 19 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 65 yds , Branden Walker return for 25 yds to the HstnB 25

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

RJ Smith run for 9 yds to the HstnB 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Justin Fomby pass complete to Ismael Fuller for 3 yds to the HstnB 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Deuce McMillan

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan Moorer

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne pass incomplete short left to Brown,Charles PENALTY HCU Pass Interference (Hargrove,Devion) 15 yards from TXST20 to TXST35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.26

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.71

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 39 yds to the TEXSTATE 16 for a 1ST down HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Corey Smooth) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln Pare

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.43

Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the HstnB 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 2 yds to the HstnB 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Ismael Fuller

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY HCU False Start (Alvarado,Andrew) 5 yards from HCU32 to HCU27. NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Justin Fomby run for 9 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Nate Livingston

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Nate Livingston run for 7 yds to the HstnB 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.95

Justin Fomby pass complete to Nate Livingston for 8 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Nate Livingston

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Desmond Young

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Deon Cormier

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.76

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.92

Calvin Hill run for 21 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the HstnB 47

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Justin Fomby pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete

2nd & 15Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +4.45

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 38 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 8 yds to the HstnB 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Justin Fomby pass complete to Joshua Graham for 6 yds to the HstnB 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Justin Fomby pass complete to Desmond Young for 5 yds to the HstnB 44

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Justin Fomby run for 3 yds to the HstnB 47

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.50

Justin Fomby pass complete to Nate Livingston for 5 yds to the HstnB 42

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 46 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for no gain to the TexSt 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.98

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 12 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 9 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 7 yds to the TexSt 49

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.33

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the HstnB 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the HstnB 42

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the HstnB 41

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.52

Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 8 yds to the HstnB 27

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the HstnB 26

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.28

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the HstnB 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.14

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 11 yds to the HstnB 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the HstnB 10

2nd & 7Field Goal Good+27 yds

Seth Keller 27 yd FG GOOD

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

RJ Smith run for 6 yds to the HstnB 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.50

Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 4 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to RJ Smith

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 9 yds to the HstnB 44

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

RJ Smith run for 3 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Desmond Young

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 1 yd to the HstnB 48

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY HCU False Start (Daniels,Dion) 5 yards from HCU48 to HCU43. NO PLAY.

3rd & 14Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.44

Justin Fomby sacked by Levi Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 41

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 15

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.62

Layne Hatcher sacked by Carlton Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 11

2nd & 14Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the TexSt 17

3rd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.20

Layne Hatcher sacked by Jalyx Hunt for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 7

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Branden Walker at the TexSt 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Karl Reynolds

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Justin Fomby pass complete to Fudge Woods for 1 yd to the TexSt 48

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY HCU False Start (McMillan,Deuce) 5 yards from TXST48 to HCU47. NO PLAY.

3rd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Justin Fomby pass complete to Fudge Woods for 5 yds to the TexSt 48

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.78

RJ Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 38

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

RJ Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 2 yds to the TexSt 36

4th & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Justin Fomby sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 33 Justin Fomby fumbled, recovered by HstnB Justin Fomby , return for 0 yards

4th & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Justin Fomby sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 33 Justin Fomby fumbled, recovered by HstnB Justin Fomby , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.76

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 2 yds to the TexSt 43

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Personal Foul (Travis Greenawalt) to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the HstnB 30

2nd & 14Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 8 yds to the HstnB 27

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the HstnB 22

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.85

Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the HstnB 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the HstnB 16

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

4th & 6Field Goal Good+33 yds

Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Justin Fomby pass complete to Fudge Woods for 1 yd to the HstnB 26

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Fomby,Justin pass complete short right to Cormier,Deon for 0 yards to the HCU26 (Edwards, Jr.,Alonzo; Holloway,Brian) PENALTY HCU Holding (Brewer,William) 10 yards from HCU26 to HCU16. NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Justin Fomby run for 8 yds to the HstnB 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 6 yds to the HstnB 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 25

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen Banks

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Joshlyn McCarter

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

RJ Smith run for no gain to the HstnB 28

3rd & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.32

Justin Fomby sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 11 yards to the HstnB 17

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.72

Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47

3rd & 6Sack-14 ydsPPA -1.56

Layne Hatcher sacked by Zae Smith for a loss of 14 yards to the TexSt 33

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Branden Walker at the HstnB 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Justin Fomby pass complete to Branden Walker for 5 yds to the HstnB 33

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.66

Justin Fomby pass complete to Deon Cormier for 14 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Justin Fomby pass complete to Nate Livingston for 1 yd to the HstnB 46

2nd & 11Penalty-15 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Fomby,Justin pass complete deep left to Harrell,Vernon for 39 yards to the TXST15 (Anderson,Kevin; Hockley,Rodrick) PENALTY HCU Pass Interference (Harrell,Vernon) 15 yards from HCU46 to HCU31. NO PLAY.

2nd & 26Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.10

Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 1 yd to the HstnB 32

3rd & 25Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.15

Justin Fomby pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 10 yds to the HstnB 42

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Brady Buell punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 12

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.57

Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles Brown

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23

3rd & 7Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY HCU Offside (Smith,Zae) 5 yards from TXST23 to TXST28. NO PLAY.

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.13

Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36

3rd & 12Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +4.30

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 41 yds to the HstnB 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.24

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 17 yds to the HstnB 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the HstnB 10

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.75

Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 10 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Mason Shipley kickoff for 63 yds , Branden Walker return for 13 yds to the HstnB 15

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Fudge Woods run for 4 yds to the HstnB 19

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Fudge Woods run for 3 yds to the HstnB 22

Situational Analysis

Houston Christian

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
20 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
20%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
36 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
45%
11 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
3 plays