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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2022Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

East Carolina by 6.1

Home Win Probability

East Carolina 62%

Market (consensus)

East Carolina -6

Edge: East Carolina -6 (0.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
HoustonHouston
71414742
East CarolinaEast Carolina
00303

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-140-213-283-353-42
East CarolinaHouston

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECHOUECHOUECHOUECHOUECHOUECHOUHOUECHOUECHOUECHOUECHOUECHOUPUNT37ydTD777ydPUNT38ydTO639ydDOWNS557ydPUNT37ydDOWNS746ydTD1068ydPUNT733ydTD992ydPUNT523ydEND10ydTD661ydFG771ydTD575ydPUNT35ydPUNT3-2ydDOWNS834ydTD1473ydDOWNS748ydPUNT33ydPUNT35ydEND1-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Houston and East Carolina
StatisticHoustonEast Carolina
Passing32-4417-35
Pass Yards435197
Rush Yards80118
Total Yards515315
Turnovers10
3rd Down6-123-14
Penalties7-650-0
Possession30:4229:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Houston
passing
Clayton Tune
32/44, 435 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Clayton Tune
6 CAR, 43 YDS
receiving
Nathaniel Dell
9 REC, 176 YDS, 1 TD
defense
East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
15/30, 182 YDS
rushing
Keaton Mitchell
14 CAR, 128 YDS
receiving
Jsi Hatfield
2 REC, 68 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.73

Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 24

3rd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.06

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.57

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 18 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +1.94

Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 33 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 4 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

CAMPBELL, Brandon rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the HOU27 (MIMS, Shaundre). PENALTY HOU Holding on FREEMAN, Jack enforced 10 yards from the HOU23 to the HOU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.03

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds to the Houst 19

3rd & 14Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +4.35

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 47 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.40

Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 38

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 14Interception0 ydsPPA -1.65

Clayton Tune pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +3.77

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 55 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -1.64

Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 34 Holton Ahlers fumbled, recovered by ECaro Keaton Mitchell

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Houst 26

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.49

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Clayton Tune pass complete to Kelan Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 24

2nd & 12Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.52

Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 33

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 22

1st & 10Penalty+7 yds

AHLERS, Holton pass to the left incomplete intended for WINSTEAD, Isaiah thrown to the ECU25. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on EMERY, Jalen enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the ECU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.16

Keaton Mitchell run for 24 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.73

Keaton Mitchell run for 13 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 29

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.22

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 32

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.92

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Houst 39

2nd & 3Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.05

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 33

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.87

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 15 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.82

Clayton Tune run for 12 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 2 yds to the ECaro 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.82

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 16 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds to the ECaro 9

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.47

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 62 yds , Jsi Hatfield return for 19 yds to the ECaro 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.93

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.85

Keaton Mitchell run for 22 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 1 yd to the Houst 41

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.89

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 45

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 8

1st & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.48

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 11 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.83

Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 12 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.75

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.88

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the ECaro 14

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the ECaro 10

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.76

Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds , Jsi Hatfield return for 22 yds to the ECaro 22 Jsi Hatfield fumbled, recovered by ECaro Juan Powell

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.06

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 12 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 4 yds to the ECaro 45

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 10

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

[NHSG] Kneel down by COLEY, Lucas at HOU10 (team loss of 0).

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+38 yds

Laith Marjan kickoff for 64 yds , Jayce Rogers return for 38 yds to the Houst 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

HENRY, Ta'Zhawn rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the ECU47 (STRINGER, Gerard). PENALTY Before the snap, HOU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the HOU50 to the HOU45. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.26

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 3 yds to the ECaro 25

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 26

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.65

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

AHLERS, Holton pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, C.J. thrown to the HOU40. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jayce enforced 15 yards to the ECU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.15

Keaton Mitchell run for 14 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +0.99

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 35 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 11

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Houst 5

3rd & 5Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 1 yd to the Houst 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Andrew Conrad 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 12 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

HENRY, Ta'Zhawn rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the HOU41 (WILK, Teagan). PENALTY HOU Holding on SYLVESTER, Trevonte enforced 10 yards from the HOU37 to the HOU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.99

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.75

Brandon Campbell run for 12 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 12 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 26 yds for a TD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 43 yds , Jsi Hatfield return for 18 yds to the ECaro 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 2 yds to the ECaro 45

4th & 5Punt+2 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 50 yds , Peyton Sawyer returns for 2 yds to the Houst 3

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.34

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 2

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 59 yds, downed at the ECaro 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.50

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the Houst 38

2nd & 5Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.09

Holton Ahlers sacked by D'Anthony Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 43

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 13 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 27

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.52

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.33

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 17 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 44

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.06

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 13 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 39

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 35

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

4th & 2Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.03

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 18 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 18

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the ECaro 18

3rd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.34

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the ECaro 10

4th & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.63

Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the ECaro 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Mason Garcia pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Mason Garcia run for 8 yds to the ECaro 33

3rd & 2Rush+37 ydsPPA +3.48

Keaton Mitchell run for 37 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.57

Mason Garcia sacked by Nelson Ceaser and Latrell Bankston for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 36

2nd & 16Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.41

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 38

3rd & 18Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.31

Mason Garcia pass complete to Kerry King for 11 yds to the Houst 27

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.52

Mason Garcia pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Kelan Walker run for no gain to the Houst 27

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Lucas Coley run for 2 yds to the Houst 29

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Lucas Coley run for 1 yd to the Houst 30

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Mason Garcia pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 4 yds to the ECaro 26

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Mason Garcia pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the ECaro 27

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 41

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

[NHSG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at HOU38 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
43%
30 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
43%
7 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
23 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
0%
5 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
4 plays