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← Back to GamesNov 5, 2022Week 10
NavyNavy
10
-Final
20
CincinnatiCincinnati
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 28.4

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 95%

Market (consensus)

Cincinnati -18.5

Edge: Cincinnati -18.5 (9.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 5, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
037010
CincinnatiCincinnati
677020

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-06-013-013-320-10
CincinnatiNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVCINNAVFG546ydPUNT33ydFG1460ydMISS1367ydTD1287ydFG954ydPUNT525ydEND1-2ydPUNT37ydTD898ydTD1675ydPUNT53ydPUNT35ydPUNT518ydMISS1362ydPUNT32ydEND1-11yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Cincinnati
StatisticNavyCincinnati
Passing4-625-35
Pass Yards84299
Rush Yards17655
Total Yards260354
Turnovers00
3rd Down6-143-11
Penalties1-156-45
Possession33:1326:47

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Maasai Maynor
3/5, 81 YDS
rushing
Xavier Arline
12 CAR, 87 YDS
receiving
Nathan Kent
1 REC, 32 YDS
defense
John Marshall
3 TFL, 1 PD
Cincinnati
passing
Ben Bryant
25/35, 299 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Charles McClelland
11 CAR, 60 YDS
receiving
Tyler Scott
10 REC, 139 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NAVY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Rayuan Lane III) to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -1.10

run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 30 fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ben Bryant

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Navy 29

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Good+47 yds

Ryan Coe 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 29

3rd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 5 yds to the Navy 47

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Wilson Huber) to the Cincy 48

2nd & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.21

Charles McClelland run for 18 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 6 yds to the Navy 28

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Ben Bryant pass complete to Will Pauling for 3 yds to the Navy 25

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.97

Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 5 yds to the Navy 19

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Navy 19

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.65

Ryan Montgomery run for 10 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Navy 9

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Ryan Coe 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Anton Hall Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 30

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Anton Hall Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Xavier Arline run for 6 yds to the Navy 44

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 45

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.53

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Anton Hall Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cincy 47

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.61

Anton Hall Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cincy 41

2nd & 9Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.44

Xavier Arline run for 27 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Cincy 13

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Cincy 11

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Cincy 8

4th & 4Blocked Field Goal+25 yds

Daniel Davies 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.56

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 9

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.27

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 16 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 1 yd to the Cincy 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.31

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 15 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Pauling) to the Cincy 46

2nd & 17Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.03

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 14 yds to the Navy 40

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Ben Bryant run for 2 yds to the Navy 38

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +4.75

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 38 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Anton Hall Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.11

Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47

3rd & 4Rush+32 ydsPPA +2.37

Xavier Arline run for 32 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Cincy 11

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jayden Umbarger run for no gain to the Cincy 11

4th & 6Field Goal Good+28 yds

Daniel Davies 28 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 65 yds , Tre Tucker return for 22 yds to the Cincy 22

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the Cincy 31

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 3 yds to the Cincy 47

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 52 yds, downed at the Navy 16

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.57

run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 14

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Xavier Arline pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 3 yds to the Navy 31

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 66 yds, downed at the Cincy 2

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Ben Bryant pass complete to Chris Scott for 10 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.35

Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 39 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 11 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Ben Bryant pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Navy 35

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.47

Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 8 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 27 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Anton Hall Jr. run for 7 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Maquel Haywood run for no gain to the Navy 41

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.37

Xavier Arline run for 10 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Jayden Umbarger run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47

3rd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44

4th & 5Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.32

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Nathan Kent for 32 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 8

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.43

Maasai Maynor run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Maasai Maynor run for no gain to the Cincy 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Anton Hall Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Maasai Maynor run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Cincy 20

1st & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 10 yds to the Cincy 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.93

Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 7 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.85

Ben Bryant sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 31

2nd & 16Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Cincy 26

2nd & 21Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.19

Ben Bryant sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 19

3rd & 28Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.03

Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the Cincy 28

4th & 19Punt+2 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 41 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 2 yds to the Navy 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Maasai Maynor run for 2 yds to the Navy 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Maasai Maynor pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+4 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 42 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 24

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.85

Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 22

2nd & 12Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.75

Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 13 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 7 yds to the Cincy 44

3rd & 1Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.31

Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 42

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.20

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 31 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 6 yds to the Navy 48

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.00

Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.53

Xavier Arline sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 46

2nd & 17Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.13

Maasai Maynor pass complete to Mark Walker for 18 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cincy 35

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 35

3rd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.79

Maquel Haywood run for 12 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Cincy 23

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.22

Maasai Maynor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 27

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Maasai Maynor pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Daniel Davies 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the Cincy 22

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 24

2nd & 13Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.27

Charles McClelland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 23

3rd & 14Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.04

Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 29

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 59 yds

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.64

Maasai Maynor sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the Navy 1

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
32%
22 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
10%
10 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
20 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
78%
9 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays