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← Back to GamesOct 29, 2022Week 9

House Prediction

Model Margin

East Carolina by 0.7

Home Win Probability

BYU 47%

Market (consensus)

BYU -3.5

Edge: East Carolina +3.5 (4.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 29, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
East CarolinaEast Carolina
7107327
BYUBYU
3147024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-710-710-1017-1724-1724-2424-27
BYUEast Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECBYUECBYUECBYUECBYUECBYUECBYUECBYUECBYUECBYUECPUNT31ydFG941ydTD675ydPUNT32ydPUNT38ydTD1092ydFG869ydTD879ydTD768ydPUNT39ydEND214ydTD1175ydTD675ydDOWNS1468ydMISS1063ydDOWNS719ydDOWNS635ydPUNT33ydEND1046yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing East Carolina and BYU
StatisticEast CarolinaBYU
Passing15-2218-25
Pass Yards197144
Rush Yards227244
Total Yards424388
Turnovers00
3rd Down2-86-13
Penalties2-205-50
Possession26:0433:56

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
15/22, 197 YDS
rushing
Keaton Mitchell
21 CAR, 176 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Isaiah Winstead
5 REC, 63 YDS
defense
BYU
passing
Jaren Hall
18/25, 144 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Lopini Katoa
20 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Puka Nacua
7 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-9 ydsPPA -1.20

Jsi Hatfield run for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 16

2nd & 19Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.06

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 17

3rd & 18Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.08

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the ECaro 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 40

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BYU 46

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.81

Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the ECaro 39

4th & 3Penalty+15 yds

Hall, Jaren pass incomplete, PENALTY EASTCRLINA roughing passer (Lewis, Jeremy) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the ECaro 21

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the ECaro 19

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka Nacua

4th & 5Field Goal Good+36 yds

Jake Oldroyd 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 18 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.56

Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 5 yds to the BYU 31

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.93

Keaton Mitchell run for 31 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka Nacua

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka Nacua

4th & 8Punt+28 yds

Ryan Rehkow punt for 55 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 28 yds to the ECaro 46

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the BYU 46

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Marlon Gunn Jr.

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 8

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the BYU 9

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 6 yds to the BYU 15

3rd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.63

Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 5 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Miles Davis run for 16 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the BYU 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 5 yds to the BYU 43

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeremy Lewis) to the BYU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BYU Penalty, False Start (Harris LaChance) to the BYU 43

1st & 15Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.32

Lopini Katoa run for 24 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Puka Nacua run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the ECaro 24

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.88

Lopini Katoa run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +4.00

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 51 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the BYU 17

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.59

Keaton Mitchell run for 12 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the BYU 5

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Marlon Gunn Jr.

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Andrew Conrad 23 yd FG GOOD

4th & 11Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 61 yds , Hobbs Nyberg return for 17 yds to the BYU 21

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.59

Miles Davis run for no gain to the BYU 21

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka Nacua

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.95

Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 14 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.44

Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 32

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Jaren Hall pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.98

Jaren Hall run for 15 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.28

Jaren Hall run for 23 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Jake Oldroyd kickoff for 65 yds , Jsi Hatfield return for 32 yds to the ECaro 32 Jsi Hatfield fumbled, recovered by ECaro Ty Moss

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Kerry King for 3 yds to the ECaro 35

2nd & 7Rush+35 ydsPPA +3.08

Keaton Mitchell run for 35 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the BYU 21

2nd & 1Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA -0.30

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Holton Ahlers run for 8 yds to the BYU 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the BYU 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)

3rd & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 65 yds , Hobbs Nyberg return for 18 yds to the BYU 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 6 yds to the BYU 24

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the BYU 25

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 27

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ryan Rehkow punt for 71 yds , Malik Fleming returns for no gain to the ECaro 2

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 9 yds to the ECaro 11

2nd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.26

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST down

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BYU 31

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.18

Puka Nacua run for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.31

Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 22 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Miles Davis run for 7 yds to the ECaro 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 6 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 22

2nd & 11Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 5 yds to the ECaro 17

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Jaren Hall run for 7 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the ECaro 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.37

Keaton Mitchell run for 13 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.56

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 26 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.39

Keaton Mitchell run for 21 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the BYU 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)

2nd & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 62 yds , Hobbs Nyberg return for 17 yds to the BYU 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 6 yds to the BYU 26

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 29

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.87

Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

Puka Nacua run for 7 yds to the BYU 39

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 11 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase Roberts

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.67

Miles Davis run for 13 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the ECaro 31

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.62

Lopini Katoa run for 11 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the ECaro 19

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 20

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.37

Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 8 yds to the ECaro 12

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -3.90

Miles Davis run for no gain to the ECaro 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 9 yds to the ECaro 21

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.57

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 28 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 25

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Shane Calhoun

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Andrew Conrad 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 8 yds to the BYU 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the BYU 40

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 42

3rd & 3Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.41

Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the BYU 44 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 10 yds to the BYU 44

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jaren Hall run for no gain to the BYU 44

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the BYU 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.14

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 8 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Targeting (Jacob Boren) to the BYU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the BYU 11

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the BYU 10

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the BYU 9

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.06

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the BYU 9

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 4 yds to the BYU 13

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 17

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Masen Wake

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

BYU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the BYU 12

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Rehkow punt for 50 yds, downed at the ECaro 38

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.11

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.88

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 8 yds to the BYU 44

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.01

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 2 yds to the BYU 37

4th & 8Penalty+15 yds

Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Winstead, Isaiah, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Hayes, Kaleb) 15 yards to the BYU22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the BYU 20

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the BYU 16

3rd & 4Field Goal Good+33 yds

Andrew Conrad 33 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
58%
26 plays
2nd
17%
6 plays
83%
6 plays
56%
9 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play

BYU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
38%
8 plays
56%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays