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← Back to GamesOct 29, 2022Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Houston by 26.7

Home Win Probability

Houston 94%

Market (consensus)

Houston -17.5

Edge: Houston -17.5 (9.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 29, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South FloridaSouth Florida
1407627
HoustonHouston
14147742

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-714-1421-1428-1428-2135-2142-2142-27
HoustonSouth Florida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SFHOUSFHOUSFHOUSFHOUSFHOUSFHOUHOUSFHOUSFHOUSFHOUSFHOUPUNT418ydTD765ydTD585ydPUNT39ydTD476ydTD768ydMISS754ydTD779ydDOWNS737ydTD1267ydPUNT34ydEND1-1ydPUNT38ydTD1265ydTD875ydDOWNS1132ydTD346ydDOWNS936ydDOWNS1028ydTD467ydEND3-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Florida and Houston
StatisticSouth FloridaHouston
Passing24-3433-39
Pass Yards275387
Rush Yards154103
Total Yards429490
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-117-11
Penalties1-1510-95
Possession29:5330:07

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Florida
passing
Katravis Marsh
24/34, 275 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brian Battie
12 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Xavier Weaver
7 REC, 84 YDS
defense
Houston
passing
Clayton Tune
31/37, 380 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Stacy Sneed
10 CAR, 60 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Nathaniel Dell
9 REC, 112 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 18 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the SFla 49

2nd & 4Rush-6 ydsPPA -2.40

Jimmy Horn Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 43

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Colin McCreary punt for 41 yds , Jalen Emery returns for no gain to the Houst 43 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on ROBINSON, TJ enforced (-15 Yards) to the Houst 35

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Clayton Tune run for 8 yds to the Houst 43

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)+16 ydsPPA +0.97

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds Nathaniel Dell fumbled, recovered by Houst for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.48

Brandon Campbell run for 13 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.55

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 26 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the SFla 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the SFla 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds , Brian Battie return for 15 yds to the SFla 15

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 16

2nd & 9Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.75

run for 19 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SFla 40

1st & 5Penalty+5 yds

MARSH, Katravis scrambles up the middle for a loss of 14 yards to the USF26, End of Play. PENALTY HOU Offsides on CEASER, Nelson enforced 5 yards from the USF40 to the USF45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +1.68

Brian Battie run for 37 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the Houst 13

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.52

Brian Battie run for 13 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 11 yds to the Houst 34

4th & 1Punt+6 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 48 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 6 yds to the SFla 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.60

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 30 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.53

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 10 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the HOU16. PENALTY HOU Holding on GREEN, Art enforced 10 yards from the HOU36 to the HOU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the Houst 20

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.52

Brian Battie run for 20 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+29 yds

Spencer Shrader kickoff for 62 yds , Jayce Rogers return for 29 yds to the Houst 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Houst 40

2nd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.22

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 5 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.58

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 32 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the SFla 13

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.20

Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Stacy Sneed run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 4 yds to the SFla 29

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the USF26. PENALTY HOU Personal Foul on ROGERS, Jayce enforced 15 yards from the USF29 to the USF44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the SFla 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.58

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 29 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the Houst 23

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 21

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+31 yds

Spencer Shrader 31 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Houst 30

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.73

Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Houst 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.09

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +4.01

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 52 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

run for 2 yds to the SFla 32

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

K'Wan Powell run for 3 yds to the SFla 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.57

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 31 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.66

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for no gain to the Houst 34

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Houst 33

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

4th & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.70

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the Houst 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.74

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.94

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 17 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 1 yd to the SFla 32

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Stacy Sneed run for 7 yds to the SFla 25

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.40

Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

TUNE, Clayton pass to the right complete for 21 yards to SNEED, Stacy caught at the USF13 and advanced to the USF0, TOUCHDOWN HOU, score nullified by penalty, clock 03:24. PENALTY HOU Holding on TODD, Chayse enforced 10 yards from the USF21 to the USF31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.58

Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 17 yds to the SFla 14

3rd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.32

Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 11 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Penalty-15 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cam'Ron Johnson) to the SFla 19

2nd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Clayton Tune pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 7 yds to the SFla 12

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +3.23

Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the SFla 31

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 3 yds Brian Battie fumbled, recovered by SFla

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Colin McCreary punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

[NH] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at HOU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+6 yds

Spencer Shrader kickoff for 54 yds , Jayce Rogers return for 6 yds to the Houst 17

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Clayton Tune pass complete to Brandon Campbell for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 16

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Houst 24

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the Houst 25

4th & 2Punt+2 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 2 yds to the SFla 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+24 ydsPPA +3.57

Katravis Marsh run for 24 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.56

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 19 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 18

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Katravis Marsh run for 6 yds to the Houst 12

3rd & 1Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.65

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 14

4th & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.92

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Michel Dukes for 6 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the Houst 4

3rd & 4Penalty+2 yds

MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for BATTIE, Brian thrown to the HOU2. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jayce enforced 2 yards to the HOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Katravis Marsh run for 1 yd to the Houst 1

2nd & 1Penalty0 yds

PENALTY USF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HALL, Dustyn HOU Unnecessary Roughness on WILLIAMS, Sedrick , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Michel Dukes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.63

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 40

2nd & 6Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.83

Stacy Sneed run for 15 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the SFla 40

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 7 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.37

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 21 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Kyle Ramsey kickoff for 51 yds , Brian Battie return for no gain to the SFla 14

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.21

run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 13

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.21

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 3 yds to the SFla 28

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.13

Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 44

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 3 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.97

Katravis Marsh sacked by Atlias Bell and Mannie Nunnery for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 49

4th & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.39

Katravis Marsh sacked by Chidozie Nwankwo for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 8 yds to the SFla 38

2nd & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.03

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 10 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

run for 1 yd to the SFla 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.39

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Holden Willis for 19 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Katravis Marsh pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.91

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for no gain to the SFla 45

3rd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.51

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 24 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Katravis Marsh run for 1 yd to the Houst 30

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.54

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 31

4th & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.78

Katravis Marsh sacked by Latrell Bankston for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Patrick Paul) to the SFla 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 3 yds to the SFla 46

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Nathaniel Dell run for 3 yds to the SFla 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.64

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the SFla 31

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Lucas Coley pass complete to CJ Nelson for 4 yds to the SFla 27

3rd & 4Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper COLEY, Lucas rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the USF19 (GORDON IV, DJ). PENALTY HOU Holding on SYLVESTER, Trevonte enforced 10 yards from the USF27 to the USF37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Lucas Coley pass complete to CJ Nelson for 3 yds to the SFla 34

4th & 11Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -1.38

Lucas Coley run for 1 yd to the SFla 33 Lucas Coley fumbled, recovered by SFla Eddie Kelly

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 11 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Khafre Brown for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +1.47

Katravis Marsh pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 40 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+8 yds

MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIS, Holden thrown to the HOU0. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on EMERY, Jalen enforced 8 yards to the HOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Chris Carter 2 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

[SG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at USF46 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

[SG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at USF47 (team loss of 1).

3rd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.68

[SG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at USF48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
41%
27 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
15 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
29%
7 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
52%
29 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
100%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play