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← Back to GamesOct 22, 2022Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

UCF by 6.2

Home Win Probability

East Carolina 34%

Market (consensus)

East Carolina +5.5

Edge: UCF -5.5 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 22, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UCFUCF
037313
East CarolinaEast Carolina
31471034

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-017-017-1024-1027-1027-1334-13
East CarolinaUCF

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFECUCFECMISS1067ydTO539ydFG1650ydTO959ydTD1080ydDOWNS847ydTD772ydFG570ydTD1074ydTD975ydPUNT3-1ydFG1255ydPUNT512ydPUNT518ydFG1367ydTD243ydTO1362ydEND10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UCF and East Carolina
StatisticUCFEast Carolina
Passing25-3730-36
Pass Yards296311
Rush Yards130147
Total Yards426458
Turnovers40
3rd Down6-129-14
Penalties3-283-20
Possession24:4935:11

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UCF
passing
John Rhys Plumlee
25/37, 296 YDS, 3 INT
rushing
Isaiah Bowser
11 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kobe Hudson
5 REC, 85 YDS
defense
East Carolina
passing
Holton Ahlers
30/36, 311 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Keaton Mitchell
16 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
C.J. Johnson
11 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.47

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 15 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.70

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 29 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 20

2nd & 2Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA -0.25

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 10

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the UCF 8

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+25 yds

Andrew Conrad 25 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the UCF 29

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 29

3rd & 1Rush+30 ydsPPA +3.15

run for 30 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.88

John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.77

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 7 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Jones) to the ECaro 45

1st & 17Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.16

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 41

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 2 yds to the UCF 36

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the UCF 29

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.26

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 18

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 15

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.29

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for no gain to the UCF 11

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the UCF 11

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+28 yds

Andrew Conrad 28 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 55 yds , Isaiah Bowser return for 14 yds to the UCF 24

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.84

Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 25

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.85

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.48

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 16 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 8 yds to the ECaro 41

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.35

RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 42

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.32

RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36

2nd & 11Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+19 ydsPPA -3.16

John Rhys Plumlee run for 19 yds to the ECaro 20 fumbled, recovered by ECaro Jireh Wilson

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.73

Keaton Mitchell run for 21 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 39

2nd & 12Penalty+10 yds

AHLERS, Holton pass to the left incomplete intended for WINSTEAD, Isaiah thrown to the ECU45; QB hurried by JEAN-BAPTISTE, Jeremiah. PENALTY UCF Holding on BARBER, Ricky enforced 10 yards from the ECU39 to the ECU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds to the UCF 44

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the UCF 44

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.61

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 34

2nd & 12Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.29

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Savage for 24 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the UCF 1

2nd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.72

Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 21 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the ECaro 49

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.21

John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the ECaro 42

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.44

John Rhys Plumlee sacked by J.D. Lampley and Rick D'Abreu for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 18Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.44

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 13 yds to the ECaro 37

4th & 5Interception0 ydsPPA -1.80

John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 32

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 1 yd to the ECaro 33

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.24

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Winstead) to the ECaro 39

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 42

3rd & 12Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.53

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 19 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 57 yds , Isaiah Bowser return for 13 yds to the UCF 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 7 yds to the UCF 28

2nd & 3Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.87

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 21 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 5 yds to the ECaro 46

2nd & 5Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.40

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 37 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Field Goal Good+27 yds

Colton Boomer 27 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 63 yds , Ryan O'Keefe return for 24 yds to the UCF 26

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.25

Isaiah Bowser run for 14 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.99

John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the ECaro 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.81

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds to the ECaro 41

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

run for 1 yd to the ECaro 40

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.94

John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.96

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 30 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the ECaro 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the ECaro 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 29

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Holton Ahlers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 6 yds to the ECaro 42

3rd & 4Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.03

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 25 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the UCF 18

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 5 yds Isaiah Winstead fumbled, recovered by ECaro Isaiah Winstead for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Thornton) to the UCF 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 60 yds , Ryan O'Keefe return for 18 yds to the UCF 23

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 29

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

3rd & 4Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.62

John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Myles Berry for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 22

4th & 11Punt+1 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 43 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 1 yd to the ECaro 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 44

3rd & 2Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.46

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the UCF 35

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 4 yds to the UCF 22

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.97

Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 8

2nd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.87

Holton Ahlers sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 15

3rd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 6 yds to the UCF 9

4th & 9Field Goal Good+26 yds

Andrew Conrad 26 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 65 yds , Ryan O'Keefe return for 19 yds to the UCF 19

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.36

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 12 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 3 yds to the UCF 34

3rd & 7Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.51

John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Jeremy Lewis and Myles Berry for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 31

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Mitch McCarthy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 33

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 43

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.29

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 39

3rd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 5 yds to the ECaro 44

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.69

RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 7 yds to the UCF 34

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.50

John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 8 yds to the UCF 47

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass to the right incomplete intended for O'KEEFE, Ryan thrown to the ECU35. PENALTY ECU Offsides on ROBINSON, Elijah enforced 5 yards from the UCF50 to the ECU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA -0.31

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.66

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 9 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST down

2nd & 19Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.47

John Rhys Plumlee run for 15 yds to the ECaro 18

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.76

John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Rick D'Abreu for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 33

4th & 4Field Goal Good+36 yds

Colton Boomer 36 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

kickoff for 8 yds , Ryan Jones return for no gain to the UCF 43

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the UCF 37

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.06

Keaton Mitchell run for 37 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Owen Daffer kickoff for 51 yds , Ryan O'Keefe return for 7 yds to the UCF 21

1st & 10Penalty-2 yds

UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Samuel Jackson) to the UCF 12

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.12

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 12 yds to the UCF 24

4th & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.73

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.05

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.98

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Stephen Martin for 8 yds to the ECaro 49

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.49

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the ECaro 36

2nd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.10

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 8 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.70

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 11 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.08

John Rhys Plumlee pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

[NHSG] Kneel down by AHLERS, Holton at ECU11 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

UCF

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
61%
28 plays
2nd
43%
7 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
41%
27 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
33%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play