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← Back to GamesOct 22, 2022Week 8
HoustonHouston
38
-Final
20
NavyNavy
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Houston by 5.3

Home Win Probability

Navy 32%

Market (consensus)

Navy +3

Edge: Houston -3 (2.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 22, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
HoustonHouston
14710738
NavyNavy
077620

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-147-2114-2414-3114-3820-38
NavyHouston

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20HOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUNAVHOUTD775ydTO724ydTD735ydDOWNS1345ydTO268ydTD480ydTD975ydMISS1251ydEND638ydPUNT37ydTO19ydMISS42ydTD1-25ydFG1068ydTO411ydTD517ydDOWNS832ydPUNT32ydPUNT35ydTD963ydTD764ydEND519yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Houston and Navy
StatisticHoustonNavy
Passing21-306-13
Pass Yards261125
Rush Yards180201
Total Yards441326
Turnovers32
3rd Down7-127-14
Penalties4-254-33
Possession28:1231:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Houston
passing
Clayton Tune
21/30, 261 YDS, 5 TD
rushing
Stacy Sneed
20 CAR, 100 YDS
receiving
Nathaniel Dell
8 REC, 93 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
6/13, 125 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Daba Fofana
20 CAR, 89 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayden Umbarger
2 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian Trahan

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Brandon Campbell run for 6 yds to the Navy 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.24

Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 28 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Navy 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 31

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.92

Tai Lavatai sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 28

2nd & 18Rush+22 ydsPPA +3.23

Xavier Arline run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 49

2nd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA -1.81

Tai Lavatai pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Navy 29

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.74

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 4 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the Navy 20

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.10

Stacy Sneed run for 9 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.81

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 64 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 22 yds to the Navy 23

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Navy False Start (Haywood,Maquel) 5 yards from Navy23 to Navy18. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 21

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the Navy 28

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.76

Tai Lavatai run for 9 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 38

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the Navy 43

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.84

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Houst 46

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Houst 45

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.33

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Houst 38

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Houst 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 34

4th & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -2.35

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +2.76

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 40 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+28 ydsPPA -4.24

Brandon Campbell run for 28 yds Brandon Campbell fumbled, recovered by Houst Joe Hutson

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark Walker

2nd & 10Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +4.18

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 52 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Houst 25

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.92

Daba Fofana run for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam Brown

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.04

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 31 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds to the Navy 23

2nd & 3Penalty+10 yds

Shotgun Tune,Clayton pass incomplete short left to Carter,KeSean QB hurried by Marshall,John PENALTY Navy Holding (Gibbons,Eavan) 10 yards from Navy23 to Navy13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Navy 6

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 4

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.27

Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 6

4th & 3Field Goal Good+23 yds

Kyle Ramsey 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the Navy 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 40

2nd & 5Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.08

Maquel Haywood run for 23 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Houst 32

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Houst 28

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.32

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Houst 21

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 24

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.

4th & 8Blocked Field Goal+6 yds

Daniel Davies 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nelson Ceaser , return for 6 yds to the Houst 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.19

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 14 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the Houst 44

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.71

Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean Carter

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam Brown

3rd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.88

Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 26

3rd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Xavier Arline run for 6 yds to the Navy 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 23

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds Nathaniel Dell fumbled, recovered by Houst Rayuan Lane

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Houst 28

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Houst 28

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 30

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Daniel Davies 47 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Shotgun Tune,Clayton pass complete short right to Carter,KeSean for 0 yards to the Hou30 (Gibbons,Eavan) PENALTY Hou Holding 10 yards from Hou30 to Hou20. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Hou False Start (Johnson,Tyler) 5 yards from Hou20 to Hou15. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Fumble Return Touchdown+5 ydsPPA -6.74

Jianni Woodson-Brooks 5 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Davies Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+3 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 43 yds , Jayce Rogers return for 3 yds to the Houst 25 Jayce Rogers fumbled, recovered by Houst Logan Compton

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+35 ydsPPA +1.82

Stacy Sneed run for 35 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 8 yds to the Navy 14

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel Dell

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Navy 13

4th & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.86

Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Clayton Tune pass incomplete

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam Brown

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the Navy 2

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Hou False Start (Johnson,Cam'Ron) 5 yards from Navy02 to Navy07. NO PLAY.

4th & 7Field Goal Good+24 yds

Kyle Ramsey 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Bubba Baxa kickoff for 55 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 20 yds to the Navy 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 36

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.69

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.34

Tai Lavatai pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Navy 9

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 9

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Navy 7

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the Navy 38

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.96

Maquel Haywood run for 14 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the Houst 40

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Houst 36

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Houst 31

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 31

4th & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -2.63

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the Houst 37

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Houst 35

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean Carter

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds , Amin Hassan returns for no gain to the Navy 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 22

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 27

4th & 5Punt+14 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for 14 yds to the Houst 37

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the Houst 41

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the Houst 41

3rd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.76

Clayton Tune run for 14 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY Hou Delay Of Game (Tune,Clayton) 5 yards from Navy45 to Navy50. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Stacy Sneed run for 7 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.44

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 11 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Mbiti Williams Jr.) to the Navy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the Navy 17

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Navy 18

3rd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.74

Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 14 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+30 yds

Kyle Ramsey kickoff for 59 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 30 yds to the Navy 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel Haywood

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 4 yds to the Navy 40

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 36

4th & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +3.05

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.85

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kroy Myers for 12 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +4.12

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 41 yds for a TD HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Gervarrius Owens) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

kickoff for 16 yds , CJ Nelson return for no gain to the Houst 49

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Houst 48

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 49

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Stacy Sneed run for 9 yds to the Navy 42

4th & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.30

Stacy Sneed run for 11 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.73

Kneel down by Houston at Navy32 for loss of 1 yards.

Situational Analysis

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
54%
28 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
23 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
60%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play