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← Back to GamesOct 14, 2022Week 7
NavyNavy
34
-Final
40
SMUSMU
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

SMU by 11.1

Home Win Probability

SMU 77%

Market (consensus)

SMU -12.5

Edge: Navy +12.5 (1.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 14, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
0772034
SMUSMU
10320740

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-013-013-1426-1433-2040-2740-34
SMUNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUNAVSMUFG874ydDOWNS731ydTD356ydTO1146ydFG1164ydMISS1456ydPUNT48ydTD966ydEND1-1ydTD675ydTD269ydTO610ydTD726ydPUNT526ydTD280ydTD1075ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-5ydTD572ydTD1675ydPUNT3-4ydTD1380ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and SMU
StatisticNavySMU
Passing9-2420-27
Pass Yards138336
Rush Yards372105
Total Yards510441
Turnovers20
3rd Down11-224-9
Penalties6-355-55
Possession40:4219:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
9/21, 138 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Tai Lavatai
25 CAR, 120 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jayden Umbarger
5 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
defense
SMU
passing
Tanner Mordecai
20/27, 336 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Tanner Mordecai
6 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Dylan Goffney
4 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+68 ydsPPA +4.11

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 68 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.46

TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 21

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 2 yds to the Navy 19

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.92

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 10 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Teddy Knox for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 12

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.52

TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 14

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

4th & 14Field Goal Good+30 yds

Collin Rogers 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.28

Tai Lavatai run for 19 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Daba Fofana run for 13 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 41

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the SMU 40

3rd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the SMU 39

4th & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.15

Tai Lavatai sacked by Mike Yoan Sandjo-Njiki and Isaac Slade-Matautia for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.74

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 35 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.68

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 24

2nd & 13Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.31

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 24 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 30

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.49

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 30

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 35

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 37

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.37

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.27

Daniel Jones run for 19 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the SMU 31

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 29

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 29

4th & 3Pass Interception Return-3 ydsPPA -2.81

Tai Lavatai pass intercepted Isaac Slade-Matautia return for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 7

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 9

2nd & 8Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.64

Tanner Mordecai run for 9 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 32

2nd & 11Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.34

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 28 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan Kerley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.27

Tyler Lavine run for 11 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.33

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 32

3rd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 3 yds to the Navy 29

4th & 10Field Goal Good+46 yds

Collin Rogers 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 16 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 36

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 37

2nd & 14Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.95

Maquel Haywood run for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the SMU 44

2nd & 8Penalty+5 yds

SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SMU 39

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 37

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.56

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the SMU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the SMU 31

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the SMU 28

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 27

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the SMU 23

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the SMU 19

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Daniel Davies 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 13 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 23

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 4 yds to the SMU 27

2nd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the SMU 28

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 34

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.72

Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the SMU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 39

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.31

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 43

2nd & 18Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Tai Lavatai run for 9 yds to the SMU 34

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the SMU 26

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.04

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.12

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 16

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, False Start (Kip Frankland) to the Navy 20

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 21

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 23

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 18

3rd & 17Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.04

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 7 yds to the Navy 25

4th & 10Penalty+10 yds

SMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+44 ydsPPA +2.61

Maquel Haywood run for 44 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the SMU 15

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.44

Tai Lavatai run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)

2nd & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 47 yds , Gage Haskin return for 13 yds to the SMU 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the SMU 40

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +4.24

Tanner Mordecai run for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

2nd & 1Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Brendan Hall kickoff for 65 yds , Maurice Moore return for 16 yds to the Navy 16

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 22

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 25

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.04

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 26

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -0.26

Anton Hall Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 26 Anton Hall Jr. fumbled, forced by Jayden Jones, recovered by SMU Nick Roberts

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Navy 20

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.02

Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the Navy 9

3rd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.94

Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tanner Mordecai run for no gain to the Navy 1 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by SMU Tanner Mordecai

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 29

2nd & 6Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.27

Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 3 yds to the SMU 48

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the SMU 45

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.76

Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 49 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai Lavatai

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +3.48

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 47 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 33 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 41

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.57

Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Daba Fofana run for 9 yds to the SMU 46

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.85

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the SMU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 44

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the SMU 41

3rd & 6Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.92

Tai Lavatai run for 15 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Evan Warren kickoff for 50 yds , Dylan Goffney return for 11 yds to the SMU 26

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.50

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for no gain to the SMU 28

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd to the SMU 29

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Bujcevski punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden Umbarger

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.41

Maquel Haywood run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 16

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.05

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 16

4th & 15Punt-9 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 28

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the SMU 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +3.89

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 44 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd to the Navy 27

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan Kerley

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.81

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 27 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 5 yds to the Navy 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.59

Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 8 yds to the Navy 44

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 45

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.66

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 9 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.80

Maquel Haywood run for 19 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the SMU 23

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the SMU 15

3rd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Nathan Kent run for 7 yds to the SMU 8

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.03

Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 3 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Logan Point run for 1 yd to the SMU 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Logan Point run for 1 yd to the SMU 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Logan Point run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 46 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by SMU Tanner Mordecai

2nd & 14Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.06

Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 43

3rd & 17Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 46

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Ryan Bujcevski punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Nathan Kent

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 28

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Tai Lavatai sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai Lavatai , return for 0 yards NAVY Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tai Lavatai) to the Navy 34

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.98

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 14 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.54

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 34 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.00

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 17 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
46%
35 plays
33%
3 plays
2nd
20%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
36%
14 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
60%
5 plays
83%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
80%
5 plays
0%
1 play

SMU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
29%
7 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
75%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
4th