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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2022Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 4

Home Win Probability

San Diego State 34%

Market (consensus)

San Diego State +2

Edge: Air Force -2 (2.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
703313
San Diego StateSan Diego State
00303

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40140-73-103-13
San Diego StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFTD575ydMISS745ydPUNT1027ydPUNT35ydDOWNS1265ydPUNT523ydPUNT421ydPUNT3-5ydMISS712ydTO2-1ydFG41ydFG631ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-10ydMISS838ydPUNT30ydFG1154ydPUNT34ydPUNT37ydTO731ydPUNT33ydTO651ydEND3-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and San Diego State
StatisticAir ForceSan Diego State
Passing1-316-31
Pass Yards14188
Rush Yards271-1
Total Yards285187
Turnovers03
3rd Down4-170-10
Penalties4-308-49
Possession39:1320:47

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
1/2, 14 YDS
rushing
Brad Roberts
35 CAR, 187 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
David Cormier
1 REC, 14 YDS
defense
Jayden Goodwin
1.5 TFL, 1 PD
San Diego State
passing
Jalen Mayden
16/31, 188 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Jordan Byrd
6 CAR, 13 YDS
receiving
Brionne Penny
3 REC, 63 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 4Rush+63 ydsPPA +3.69

Brad Roberts run for 63 yds to the SDSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 56 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 18 yds to the SDSt 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 1 yd to the SDSt 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.91

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 13 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.82

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 28 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Jalen Mayden run for 9 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the AFA 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Jack Browning 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 29

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 35

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 37

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.02

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 42

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 44

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AFA False Start (Jefferson,Ben) 5 yards from SDSU41 to SDSU46. NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the SDSt 45

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 5

1st & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2

2nd & 13Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the SDSt 10

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi Shaw

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 57 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.54

John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 45

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 49

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.29

John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the SDSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AFA False Start (Jefferson,Ben) 5 yards from SDSU26 to SDSU31. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 8

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the SDSt 2

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 2

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.20

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 2

1st & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Martin Blake run for 4 yds to the SDSt 5

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.59

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 13 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSt 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.71

Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the SDSt 25

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 31

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Brad Roberts run for 14 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 47

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 27 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jalen Mayden run for 4 yds to the SDSt 25

2nd & 6Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.91

Jalen Mayden sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 15

3rd & 16Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.04

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 1 yd to the SDSt 16

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the SDSt 49

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 46

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.78

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the SDSt 44

2nd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 40

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 13Field Goal Missed+57 yds

Matthew Dapore 57 yd FG MISSED

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+6 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 56 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 6 yds to the SDSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 1 yd to the SDSt 16

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -0.01

Jalen Mayden run for 2 yds to the SDSt 14 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by AFA Peyton Zdroik

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the SDSt 12

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the SDSt 13

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the SDSt 13

4th & 9Field Goal Good+30 yds

Matthew Dapore 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+37 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 57 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 37 yds to the SANDIEGOST 28 AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (Tristan Bentley) to the AFA 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.49

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 15 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.17

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 13 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the AFA 7

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the AFA 9

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark Redman

4th & 7Field Goal Good+26 yds

Jack Browning 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Ben Jefferson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 40 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi Shaw

2nd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.66

Jalen Mayden sacked by Trey Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the SDSt 17

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 48 yds , Amari Terry returns for no gain to the AFA 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 36

2nd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.39

John Lee Eldridge III run for 16 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the SDSt 48

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the SDSt 40

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the SDSt 35

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the SDSt 33

3rd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the SDSt 27

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Matthew Dapore 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.08

Kenan Christon run for 12 yds to the SDSt 15

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Kenan Christon

3rd & 22Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.10

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the SDSt 27

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 31

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 15Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.36

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 14 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 1Rush+22 ydsPPA +2.56

Brad Roberts run for 22 yds to the SDSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the SDSt 32

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.35

Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the SDSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the SDSt 10

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SDSt 14

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Michael Shawcroft for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 15

4th & 11Field Goal Good+32 yds

Matthew Dapore 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 49 yds , Max Garrison return for 22 yds to the SDSt 38

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark Redman

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 13

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 14

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.11

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 16

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the AFA 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 7 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.39

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 16 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jalen Mayden run for 5 yds to the AFA 19

2nd & 5Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.55

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Chance Bell for 13 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark Redman

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mark Redman

3rd & 16Interception0 ydsPPA -3.33

Jalen Mayden pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 15

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 18

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 19

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 6 yds to the SDSt 35

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Mekhi Shaw

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

4th & 4Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +4.33

Jalen Mayden pass complete to Brionne Penny for 40 yds to the SANDIEGOST 25 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Trey Williams) to the AFA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jalen Mayden pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.01

Jalen Mayden pass intercepted, touchback.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

H. Daniels takes a knee

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.25

H. Daniels takes a knee

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.09

H. Daniels takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
29%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
33%
6 plays
67%
12 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
50%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
53%
15 plays
25%
4 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
20%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play