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← Back to GamesNov 20, 2022Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 32

Home Win Probability

Air Force 97%

Market (consensus)

Air Force -21.5

Edge: Air Force -21.5 (10.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 20, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Colorado StateColorado State
006612
Air ForceAir Force
7107024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-017-024-024-624-12
Air ForceColorado State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFAFCSAFCSCSAFCSAFCSPUNT424ydTD1580ydPUNT66ydPUNT922ydPUNT34ydTD969ydDOWNS968ydFG543ydPUNT38ydDOWNS825ydTD1272ydPUNT411ydTD222ydMISS1139ydTD964ydDOWNS1116ydEND125yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Colorado State and Air Force
StatisticColorado StateAir Force
Passing19-240-2
Pass Yards1790
Rush Yards65359
Total Yards244359
Turnovers01
3rd Down2-97-16
Penalties3-154-25
Possession22:3137:29

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Colorado State
passing
Clay Millen
19/24, 179 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Avery Morrow
8 CAR, 42 YDS
receiving
Jaylen Thomas
6 REC, 49 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
0/2, 0 YDS
rushing
Brad Roberts
37 CAR, 184 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Clay Millen pass complete to Louis Brown for 16 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Avery Morrow run for 7 yds to the ColSt 43

2nd & 3Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.28

Clay Millen sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 37

3rd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Clay Millen run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 56 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.87

Ben Jefferson run for 7 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 5Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.74

John Lee Eldridge III run for 15 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Rillos,Caleb) 5 yards from CSU44 to CSU49. NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the ColSt 43

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.44

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the ColSt 31

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Roberts,Brad) 5 yards from CSU31 to CSU36. NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the ColSt 29

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.22

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the ColSt 23

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.34

John Lee Eldridge III run for 11 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the ColSt 11

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.76

DeAndre Hughes run for 11 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 7 yds to the ColSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Clay Millen pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 3 yds to the ColSt 38

3rd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.70

Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 31

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.11

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.46

Haaziq Daniels sacked by CJ Onyechi for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 37

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

DeAndre Hughes run for 5 yds to the AFA 42

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.43

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Motion ( Yards) declined

2nd & 12Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 49

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to John Lee Eldridge III

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds to the ColSt 22

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY CSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from CSU22 to CSU17. NO PLAY.

2nd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.28

Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the ColSt 17

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 19

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 50 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.60

John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.57

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the ColSt 38

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 35

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.53

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Brad Roberts run for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.26

Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for no gain to the ColSt 3

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.56

Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 11 yds to the ColSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.65

Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 10 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.10

Clay Millen run for 12 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jayden Goodwin) to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Clay Millen pass incomplete to Dane Olson

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Jaylen Thomas run for 9 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA +0.30

Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 1 yd to the AFA 29

4th & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -2.93

Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for no gain to the AFA 29

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.72

DeAndre Hughes run for 34 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the ColSt 30

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 28

4th & 1Field Goal Good+44 yds

Matthew Dapore 44 yd FG GOOD

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 47

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Louis Brown run for 4 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.90

Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 6 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Clay Millen run for 6 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.16

Clay Millen pass complete to Avery Morrow for 4 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the AFA 32

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Clay Millen pass incomplete to Avery Morrow

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.66

Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory Horton

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.84

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 43

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+17 ydsPPA +0.87

Brad Roberts run for 17 yds to the ColSt 26 Brad Roberts fumbled, recovered by AFA DeAndre Hughes for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the ColSt 23

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the ColSt 17

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the ColSt 9

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the ColSt 7

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.91

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 57 yds , Keegan Holles return for 14 yds to the ColSt 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.52

Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 18 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Clay Millen pass incomplete to Avery Morrow

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.28

Clay Millen sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 33

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY CSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from CSU33 to CSU28. NO PLAY.

3rd & 22Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.00

Clay Millen pass complete to Jordan Williams for 5 yds to the ColSt 33

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 45 yds , Amari Terry returns for no gain to the AFA 22 Amari Terry fumbled, recovered by ColSt CJ Onyechi

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 28

2nd & 16Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +3.75

Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 28 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Henry Katleman kickoff for 39 yds , Ben Jefferson return for 11 yds to the AFA 46 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 42

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.96

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 48

3rd & 4Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.51

DeAndre Hughes run for 19 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 27

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the ColSt 24

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.94

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 20

2nd & 8Penalty-2 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-2 Yards) to the ColSt 39

3rd & 27Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the ColSt 36

4th & 24Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Matthew Dapore 53 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.92

Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 28

2nd & 18Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.31

Clay Millen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 8 yards to the ColSt 20

3rd & 26Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.23

Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 16 yds to the ColSt 36

4th & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.67

Clay Millen run for 19 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory Horton

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.81

Clay Millen pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 22 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Clay Millen pass complete to Jaylen Thomas for 6 yds to the AFA 17

2nd & 4Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.90

Clay Millen sacked by Jayden Thiergood for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.37

Clay Millen pass complete to Jordan Williams for 21 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 44

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.76

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 31

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the ColSt 29

4th & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.66

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Kneel down by Air Force at CSU23 for loss of 1 yards.

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Kneel down by Air Force at CSU25 for loss of 2 yards.

3rd & 13Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.57

Kneel down by Air Force at CSU28 for loss of 3 yards.

4th & 16Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.39

Kneel down by Air Force at CSU30 for loss of 2 yards.

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.22

Avery Morrow run for 25 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Colorado State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
20 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
42%
26 plays
2nd
67%
9 plays
55%
11 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play