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← Back to GamesNov 12, 2022Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 34.8

Home Win Probability

Air Force 98%

Market (consensus)

Air Force -21

Edge: Air Force -21 (13.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 12, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New MexicoNew Mexico
00303
Air ForceAir Force
14014735

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-021-028-335-3
Air ForceNew Mexico

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMAFNMAFNMAFNMAFAFNMAFNMAFNMAFNMAFNMAFPUNT35ydTD371ydPUNT39ydTD1584ydPUNT725ydPUNT1245ydPUNT615ydEND620ydTD1075ydPUNT36ydTO317ydFG525ydTD978ydPUNT3-12ydPUNT37ydDOWNS934ydTD946ydDOWNS843ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico and Air Force
StatisticNew MexicoAir Force
Passing10-212-2
Pass Yards12842
Rush Yards44428
Total Yards172470
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-137-15
Penalties4-276-40
Possession22:1137:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico
passing
Justin Holaday
10/21, 128 YDS
rushing
receiving
Donald Jones
3 REC, 49 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
2/2, 42 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brad Roberts
29 CAR, 163 YDS
receiving
David Cormier
1 REC, 33 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Justin Holaday run for 3 yds to the NMex 31

3rd & 4Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Justin Holaday sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 29

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Ben Jefferson run for 1 yd to the AFA 35

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +6.41

Haaziq Daniels run for 65 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Justin Holaday run for no gain to the NMex 25

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Justin Holaday run for 1 yd to the NMex 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.27

Justin Holaday pass complete to Duece Jones for 8 yds to the NMex 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 16

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.97

Brad Roberts run for 15 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 3Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.41

Emmanuel Michel run for 14 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the NMex 41

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NMex 39

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.78

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the NMex 29

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the NMex 28

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Ben Jefferson run for 3 yds to the NMex 25

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.99

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the NMex 14

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 10

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.70

John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Justin Holaday pass complete to Geordon Porter for 6 yds to the NMex 31

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Christian Washington run for 3 yds to the NMex 34 Christian Washington fumbled, recovered by NMex Tavien Ford

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.38

Justin Holaday pass complete to Duece Jones for 15 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 5Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Holaday,Justin pass complete short right to Porter,Geordon for 4 yards to the AF 40 (Mack II,Michael) PENALTY UNM Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from AF 44 to AF 49. NO PLAY.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Geordon Porter

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.85

Justin Holaday sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 11

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.62

Brad Roberts run for 13 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

Hughes,DeAndre rush left for 15 yards gain to the AF 44 (Martin,Donte), out of bounds PENALTY AF Holding (Karas,Adam) 10 yards from AF 29 to AF 19. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 22

3rd & 12Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.98

Brad Roberts run for 13 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 34

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.62

Emmanuel Michel run for 8 yds to the AFA 42

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.70

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the NMex 47

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.49

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the NMex 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 39

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

(07:08) PENALTY AF False Start (Iles,Steven) 5 yards from UNM39 to UNM44. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the NMex 42

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the NMex 44

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 10

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 13

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Geordon Porter

3rd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.51

Justin Holaday run for 17 yds to the NMex 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Geordon Porter

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Christian Washington run for 2 yds to the NMex 28

3rd & 12Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.21

Justin Holaday sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 25

4th & 15Punt+7 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 55 yds , Amari Terry returns for 7 yds to the AFA 27

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 36

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.11

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.86

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Jake Saltonstall for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 34

2nd & 15Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 47

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.54

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the NMex 48

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the NMex 47

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Jefferson,Ben) 5 yards from UNM47 to AF48. NO PLAY.

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.89

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brad Roberts for 9 yds to the NMex 43

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.10

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the NMex 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the NMex 33

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.88

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 33 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Justin Holaday pass complete to Geordon Porter for 3 yds to the NMex 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Nathaniel Jones run for 4 yds to the NMex 32

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Justin Holaday run for 1 yd to the NMex 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 29

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Omar Fattah run for 5 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 37

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+9 ydsPPA -0.96

Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the AFA 46 Omar Fattah fumbled, recovered by NMex AJ Haulcy

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +0.99

Justin Holaday pass complete to Geordon Porter for 31 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Elijah Queen

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.49

Justin Holaday sacked by Alec Mock for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 23

3rd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Justin Holaday run for 2 yds to the AFA 21

4th & 16Field Goal Good+39 yds

Luke Drzewiecki 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

George Steinkamp kickoff for 43 yds , Omar Fattah return for no gain to the AFA 22 Omar Fattah fumbled, recovered by AFA Omar Fattah

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.51

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the NMex 42

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NMex 40

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the NMex 37

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +4.80

Haaziq Daniels run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Sherod White run for 1 yd to the NMex 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Luke Wysong

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY UNM False Start (Wysong,Luke) 5 yards from UNM26 to UNM21. NO PLAY.

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY UNM False Start (Ford,Tavien) 5 yards from UNM21 to UNM16. NO PLAY.

3rd & 19Penalty-12 yds

NEW MEXICO Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-12 Yards) to the NMex 13

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 42

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Michel,Emmanuel rush left for 11 yards gain to the UNM47 (Lewis,Jer'Marius) PENALTY AF Holding (Terry,Amari) 10 yards from AF42 to AF32. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Amari Terry run for 4 yds to the AFA 49 Amari Terry fumbled, recovered by AFA

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Luke Wysong at the NMex 12

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Christian Washington run for 5 yds to the NMex 17

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.45

Christian Washington run for 6 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.06

Justin Holaday sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 8 yards to the NMex 15

2nd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.07

Christian Washington run for 7 yds to the NMex 22

3rd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.25

Justin Holaday pass complete to Luke Wysong for 16 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Justin Holaday run for 3 yds to the NMex 41

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Luke Wysong

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Justin Holaday pass complete to Trae Hall for 5 yds to the NMex 46

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Christian Washington run for no gain to the NMex 46

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Jet Harris run for 2 yds to the NMex 44

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jet Harris run for 4 yds to the NMex 40

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jet Harris run for 3 yds to the NMex 37

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.69

Jet Harris run for 2 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Jensen Jones run for 11 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Sione Angilau run for 5 yds to the NMex 19

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.08

Jensen Jones run for 8 yds to the NMex 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Sione Angilau run for 2 yds to the NMex 9

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.69

Jensen Jones run for 9 yds for a TD, (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Rodriguez,Anthony kick attempt good (H: Bay,Carson, LS: Melgarejo III,J. Frank) PENALTY AF Delay Of Game (Bay,Carson) 5 yards from UNM03 to UNM03. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Luke Wieland kickoff for 58 yds , Christian Washington return for 16 yds to the NMex 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Justin Holaday pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 9 yds to the NMex 32

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Duece Jones

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.98

Zach Vigil run for 3 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.10

Justin Holaday pass complete to Duece Jones for 26 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Andrew Erickson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Andrew Erickson

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY AF Offside (BoisD'Enghien,Andrew) 5 yards from AF39 to AF34. NO PLAY.

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Trae Hall

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.09

Justin Holaday pass incomplete to Luke Wysong

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Kneel down by Air Force at AF33 for loss of 1 yards.

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.62

Kneel down by Air Force at AF31 for loss of 2 yards.

Situational Analysis

New Mexico

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
17 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
0%
10 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
63%
27 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
40%
10 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
4 plays