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← Back to GamesOct 22, 2022Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 8.5

Home Win Probability

Air Force 72%

Market (consensus)

Air Force -2.5

Edge: Air Force -2.5 (6.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 22, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Boise StateBoise State
1090019
Air ForceAir Force
070714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-130-167-1914-19
Air ForceBoise State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSAFAFBSAFBSAFBSAFBSPUNT40ydPUNT3-7ydTD1363ydTO33ydFG42ydPUNT33ydFG757ydPUNT3-8ydFG530ydTD775ydFG1153ydEND413ydPUNT630ydTO520ydPUNT519ydPUNT1131ydTD1182ydPUNT34ydDOWNS1451ydEND52yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Boise State and Air Force
StatisticBoise StateAir Force
Passing16-244-9
Pass Yards20796
Rush Yards115175
Total Yards322271
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-136-14
Penalties9-704-22
Possession33:0526:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Boise State
passing
Taylen Green
16/24, 207 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Ashton Jeanty
15 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Eric McAlister
1 REC, 44 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
4/8, 96 YDS
rushing
Brad Roberts
25 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Zachary Larrier
1 REC, 37 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Luke Wieland kickoff for 49 yds , Cole Wright return for 10 yds to the BoiSt 26

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Ashton Jeanty run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 30

2nd & 6Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.65

Taylen Green run for 40 yds to the AIRFORCE 30 BOISE ST Penalty, Personal Foul (John Ojukwu) to the BoiSt 18

2nd & 18Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.13

Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 8 yds to the BoiSt 26

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Taylen Green pass incomplete to Tyler Crowe

4th & 10Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.14

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 23 John Lee Eldridge III fumbled, recovered by AFA John Lee Eldridge III

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caleb Rillos

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 42

2nd & 5Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.59

Ashton Jeanty run for 15 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Taylen Green pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 9 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the AFA 14

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the AFA 13

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the AFA 12

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.51

Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the AFA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the AFA 6

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.51

Taylen Green pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 5 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+2 yds

PENALTY AF Offside (Taylor,Trey) 2 yards from AF 03 to AF 03. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Will Ferrin kickoff for 61 yds , Amari Terry return for 20 yds to the AFA 24

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 25

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -0.22

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 27 John Lee Eldridge III fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Kaonohi Kaniho

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Ashton Jeanty run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Taylen Green pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 1 yd to the AFA 25

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell Caples

4th & 8Field Goal Good+42 yds

Jonah Dalmas 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the AFA 28

3rd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 28 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 32

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.42

Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 42 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.15

Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 12 yds to the AFA 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the AFA 8

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Ashton Jeanty run for 3 yds to the AFA 11

3rd & 9Penalty0 yds

BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cade Beresford) declined

4th & 9Field Goal Good+29 yds

Jonah Dalmas 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (McCollough,Ayden) 5 yards from AF 25 to AF 20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 14 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by AFA Zac Larrier

2nd & 21Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 18

3rd & 17Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.05

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Demitri Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 17

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.53

Taylen Green pass complete to Eric McAlister for 44 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Taylen Green pass incomplete to Ashton Jeanty

2nd & 10Penalty-14 yds

BOISE ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-14 Yards) to the AFA 34

3rd & 24Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for no gain to the AFA 34

4th & 24Field Goal Good+51 yds

Jonah Dalmas 51 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 8Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +2.88

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Zac Larrier for 37 yds to the BoiSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 20

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 15

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.81

Haaziq Daniels run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ashton Jeanty run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.78

Taylen Green pass complete to Billy Bowens for 8 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the BoiSt 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.80

Taylen Green pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 21 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.15

Ashton Jeanty run for 5 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Taylen Green pass incomplete to Stefan Cobbs

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the AFA 24

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Ashton Jeanty run for 2 yds to the AFA 22

4th & 2Field Goal Good+39 yds

Jonah Dalmas 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.81

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.69

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Demitri Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 38

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.70

Haaziq Daniels run for 19 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to John Lee Eldridge III

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 45

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 45 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 25

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BSU False Start (Curran,Garrett) 5 yards from BSU27 to BSU22. NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.78

Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 12 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Taylen Green pass complete to Tyler Crowe for 6 yds to the BoiSt 40

2nd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -2.06

Taylen Green pass intercepted

4th & 3Punt+1 yds

Luke Freer punt for 48 yds , Latrell Caples returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 16

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Jensen Jones run for 8 yds to the AFA 26

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.04

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jensen Jones run for 3 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Ben Brittain pass incomplete to Caleb Rillos

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jensen Jones run for 4 yds to the AFA 37

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 20

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Kaden Dudley run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 23

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.68

Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 13 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 38

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BSU False Start (Farrar,Will) 5 yards from BSU38 to BSU33. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Taylen Green pass complete to Latrell Caples for 8 yds to the BoiSt 41

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.03

Taylen Green run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the BoiSt 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.90

Taylen Green pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 10 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Taylen pass complete deep right to Caples,Latrell for 19 yards to the AF 24 (Castonguay,Eian) PENALTY BSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from AF 43 to AF 48. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 39

2nd & 28Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Taylen Green pass incomplete to Davis Koetter

3rd & 28Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.10

Taylen Green pass complete to Riley Smith for 8 yds to the BoiSt 47

4th & 20Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 18

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 18

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.43

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 24 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.72

Haaziq Daniels run for 27 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 24

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.48

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 15

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 20

3rd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.34

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 13 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Elelyon Noa run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY BSU Illegal Snap (Farrar,Will) 5 yards from BSU34 to BSU29. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Taylen Green pass incomplete to Latrell Caples

4th & 6Punt0 yds

James Ferguson-Reynolds punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 34

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Freer,Luke punt 45 yards to the BSU21 fair catch by Caples,Latrell at BSU21 PENALTY BSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from AF 34 to AF 39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Engel

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.19

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 22 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 21

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 15

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 12

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 11

4th & 3Penalty-10 yds

Daniels,Haaziq pass complete short right to Bryant,James for 6 yards to the BSU05 (Robinson,Rodney) PENALTY AF Holding (Karas,Adam) 10 yards from BSU11 to BSU21. NO PLAY.

4th & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.40

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier

4th & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.40

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 17

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 20

3rd & 11Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.99

Taylen Green run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Kneel down by Boise St. at BSU34 for loss of 1 yards.

2nd & 11Penalty-20 yds

Kneel down by Green,Taylen at BSU33 for loss of 1 yards PENALTY AF Offside (Zdroik,Payton) BSU Personal Foul (Curran,Garrett) 20 yards from BSU34 to BSU24. NO PLAY.

2nd & 21Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.12

T. Green takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Boise State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
24 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
80%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
27%
22 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
38%
13 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays