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← Back to GamesOct 8, 2022Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 13.4

Home Win Probability

Utah State 17%

Market (consensus)

Utah State +11.5

Edge: Air Force -11.5 (1.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 8, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
7731027
Utah StateUtah State
10371434

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-710-1413-1413-1720-1727-2434-2434-27
Utah StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSAFUSPUNT613ydTD872ydTD964ydFG962ydTD1675ydFG764ydPUNT35ydTO415ydEND1-1ydPUNT3-5ydFG1029ydTD1380ydTD775ydTD1075ydTO331ydTD356ydTO940ydPUNT3-4ydFG521ydEND3-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Utah State
StatisticAir ForceUtah State
Passing5-1218-23
Pass Yards95215
Rush Yards264199
Total Yards359414
Turnovers21
3rd Down7-135-12
Penalties7-588-65
Possession34:1625:44

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
5/12, 95 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Brad Roberts
29 CAR, 136 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Amari Terry
1 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Utah State
passing
Cooper Legas
18/23, 215 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Calvin Tyler Jr.
19 CAR, 109 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Brian Cobbs
8 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.02

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Engel for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 43

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 38

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt+15 yds

Carson Bay punt for 49 yds , Cooper Jones returns for 15 yds to the UthSt 28

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the UthSt 32

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.42

Cooper Legas run for 10 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 44

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45

3rd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.81

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 14 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Cooper Legas pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.28

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 10 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+31 ydsPPA +2.84

Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 52 yds , Amari Terry return for 23 yds to the AFA 36

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the UthSt 46

2nd & 3Rush+30 ydsPPA +0.89

Brad Roberts run for 30 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the UthSt 11

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.92

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the UthSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Terrell Vaughn run for 15 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.82

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 26 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Cooper Legas run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Cooper Legas run for 14 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left incomplete intended for MCGRIFF, Justin thrown to the AFA0. PENALTY Before the snap, AFA Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the AFA17 to the AFA12. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the AFA 8

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Cooper Legas pass incomplete

3rd & 1Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -0.87

Cooper Legas pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 13

4th & 6Field Goal Good+30 yds

Connor Coles 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 38

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 42

3rd & 4Penalty+10 yds

DANIELS, Haaziq pass to the right incomplete intended for CORMIER, David broken up by VONGPHACHANH, AJ at the USU37. PENALTY USU Holding on GRZESIAK, Daniel enforced 10 yards from the AFA42 to the USU48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the UthSt 42

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.43

John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the UthSt 28

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the UthSt 28

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the UthSt 16

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.24

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UthSt 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the UthSt 3

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the UthSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 62 yds , Terrell Vaughn return for 20 yds to the UthSt 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 25

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 7 yds to the UthSt 32

3rd & 1Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +3.35

Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 36 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left incomplete intended for VAUGHN, Terrell broken up by GOFF, Camby at the AFA0. PENALTY AFA Pass Interference on GOFF, Camby enforced 15 yards to the AFA17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.88

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 23

2nd & 16Penalty-5 yds

LEGAS, Cooper pass to the right complete for 16 yards to COBBS, Brian caught at the AFA15 and advanced to the AFA7 (TAYLOR, Trey). PENALTY USU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SOUTH, Jacob enforced 5 yards from the AFA23 to the AFA28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 21Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Cooper Legas run for no gain to the AFA 28

3rd & 21Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.78

Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 15 yds to the AFA 13

4th & 6Field Goal Good+30 yds

Connor Coles 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 15

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 17

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.19

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 17

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 40 yds , Cooper Jones returns for no gain to the UthSt 43

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the UthSt 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.12

Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.09

Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 42

2nd & 11Interception0 ydsPPA -2.67

Cooper Legas pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Kneel down by DANIELS, Haaziq at AFA17 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 58 yds , Terrell Vaughn return for 17 yds to the UTAHST 48 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UthSt 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the UthSt 15

2nd & 8Penalty-13 yds

LEGAS, Cooper pass to the left complete for 13 yards to VAUGHN, Terrell caught at the USU13 and advanced to the USU28 (GOODWIN, Jayden;GOFF, Camby). PENALTY USU Personal Foul on LAPUAHO, Weylin enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the USU15 to the USU8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 8

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Cooper Legas pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the UthSt 46

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.41

Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the UthSt 37

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the UthSt 35

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (David Cormier) to the UthSt 40

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the UthSt 35

4th & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.13

Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the UthSt 23

4th & 6Field Goal Good+40 yds

Matthew Dapore 40 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 60 yds , Terrell Vaughn return for 15 yds to the UthSt 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Cooper Legas pass complete to Justin McGriff for 6 yds to the UthSt 26

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Cooper Legas pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 6 yds to the UthSt 39

2nd & 4Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.80

Robert Briggs run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 34

3rd & 9Penalty0 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jamari Bellamy) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Robert Briggs run for 7 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Justin McGriff) to the AFA 42

2nd & 8Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.43

Cooper Legas run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 49

3rd & 15Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.47

Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 16 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 6 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 4Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.14

Cooper Legas sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 35

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.23

Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 11 yds to the AFA 24

4th & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.95

Cooper Legas pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 3 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 21 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 21

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.70

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 31

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 12Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.66

John Lee Eldridge III run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.65

Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +3.19

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 40 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 4 yds to the UthSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 8 yds to the UthSt 44

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.10

Cooper Legas run for 4 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Cooper Legas pass complete to NyNy Davis for 5 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the AFA 39

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Cooper Legas run for 5 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Cooper Legas pass incomplete

4th & 4Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +4.78

Cooper Legas pass complete to Terrell Vaughn for 34 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 26

3rd & 9Penalty+8 yds

DANIELS, Haaziq pass to the right complete for 8 yards to CORMIER, David to the AFA34 (GRAYSON, Andre). PENALTY USU Pass Interference on GRAYSON, Andre enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the AFA34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+22 ydsPPA -1.66

Jalen Johnson run for 22 yds to the UthSt 44 Jalen Johnson fumbled, recovered by UthSt Andre Grayson

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.18

Cooper Legas run for 16 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 8 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.55

Cooper Legas run for 32 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.71

John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.21

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Engel for 14 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45

3rd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.45

Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.34

Haaziq Daniels pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 16

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.18

Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 17

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (Chandler Dolphin) to the UthSt 12

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.04

Cooper Legas run for no gain to the UthSt 12

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 yds, downed at the AFA 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.00

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 15 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

DANIELS, Haaziq pass to the left incomplete intended for CORMIER, David thrown to the USU35. PENALTY AFA Holding on SMALLEY, Everett enforced 10 yards from the USU38 to the USU48 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the UthSt 47

3rd & 19Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.96

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 15 yds to the UthSt 32

4th & 4Field Goal Good+51 yds

Matthew Dapore 51 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

kickoff for 10 yds , Justin McGriff return for no gain to the AFA 45

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

[NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at AFA46 (team loss of 1).

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

[NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at AFA47 (team loss of 1).

3rd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

[NH] Kneel down by LEGAS, Cooper at AFA48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
41%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
20%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Utah State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
52%
25 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
71%
7 plays
43%
7 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play