Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5
NavyNavy
10
-Final
13
Air ForceAir Force

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 24.2

Home Win Probability

Air Force 93%

Market (consensus)

Air Force -14

Edge: Air Force -14 (10.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
030710
Air ForceAir Force
1000313

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-010-010-310-1013-10
Air ForceNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFTD375ydDOWNS733ydFG952ydPUNT33ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-3ydTO751ydPUNT535ydPUNT38ydPUNT727ydTO411ydFG411ydPUNT37ydPUNT635ydMISS1376ydPUNT38ydTD1059ydFG1271ydPUNT3-5ydEND729yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Air Force
StatisticNavyAir Force
Passing11-206-8
Pass Yards129156
Rush Yards114200
Total Yards243356
Turnovers02
3rd Down4-133-11
Penalties5-385-45
Possession27:4132:19

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Tai Lavatai
11/20, 129 YDS
rushing
Tai Lavatai
12 CAR, 34 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayden Umbarger
4 REC, 71 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
6/8, 156 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brad Roberts
23 CAR, 108 YDS
receiving
David Cormier
3 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Alec Mock
1.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

John Lee Eldridge III run for 6 yds to the AFA 33

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+67 ydsPPA +6.30

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 67 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the Navy 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 26

3rd & 9Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (Trey Taylor) to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 8 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the AFA 42

3rd & 1Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY NAVY False Start (Frankland,Kip) 5 yards from AF 42 to AF 47. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 4 yds to the AFA 43

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 4 yds to the AFA 43

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.62

Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the AFA 42

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.69

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.19

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.02

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 25 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the Navy 16

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the Navy 8

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Navy 8

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 6

4th & 3Field Goal Good+23 yds

Matthew Dapore 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Navy 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 1 yd to the Navy 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 40

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Tyler Fletcher for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 41

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caleb Rillos

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 59 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.24

Tai Lavatai sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 17

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Amari Terry at the AFA 35

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 17Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.62

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 28 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the Navy 37

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 28

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.59

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST down

2nd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.59

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+5 ydsPPA -4.40

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the Navy 14 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, recovered by Navy Justin Reed

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.65

Maquel Haywood run for 12 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.00

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 22 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the AFA 46

4th & 4Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from AF 46 to NAVY49. NO PLAY.

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 4 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 4 yds to the AFA 28

4th & 2Punt+3 yds

Carson Bay punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 30 , Amin Hassan returns for 3 yds to the Navy 30

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 36

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.66

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 13 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel Haywood

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Logan Point

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Logan Point

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 43 yds for a touchback

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.05

Haaziq Daniels run for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caleb Rillos

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

3rd & 11Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -0.30

Haaziq Daniels sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 31 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, recovered by Navy Jacob Busic , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.30

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 18 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the AFA 16

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 4 yds to the AFA 20

3rd & 17Field Goal Good+37 yds

Daniel Davies 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 17End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the Navy 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 68 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.34

Brad Roberts run for 17 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF Delay Of Game 5 yards from AF 39 to AF 34. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 9Penalty-15 yds

Daniels,Haaziq pass incomplete short right to Cormier,David PENALTY NAVY Personal Foul (BERNIARDJr,Donald) 15 yards from AF 38 to NAVY47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Navy 45

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 41

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Rillos,Caleb) 5 yards from NAVY41 to NAVY46. NO PLAY.

3rd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 45

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Rillos,Caleb) 5 yards from NAVY41 to NAVY46. NO PLAY.

3rd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 45

4th & 8Punt+37 yds

Carson Bay punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 16 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Elias Larry) to the Navy 8

4th & 8Punt+37 yds

Carson Bay punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 16 NAVY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Elias Larry) to the Navy 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.61

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 27 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Navy 39

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark Walker

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the AFA 49

3rd & 8Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.95

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 23 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Maquel Haywood run for 7 yds to the AFA 19

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Camari Williams

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.37

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the AFA 14

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Maquel Haywood run for no gain to the AFA 14

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the AFA 16

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+33 yds

Daniel Davies 33 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 28

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 31 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 2 yds to the Navy 43

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.66

Xavier Arline run for 9 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the AFA 43

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.75

Daba Fofana run for 9 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.39

Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 27 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the AFA 5

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Xavier Arline run for no gain to the AFA 5

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Navy 48

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.91

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Engel for 15 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Navy 23

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY AF False Start (Karas,Adam) 5 yards from NAVY23 to NAVY28. NO PLAY.

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.41

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Ben Jefferson for 17 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 7

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Navy 3

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 4

4th & 3Field Goal Good+22 yds

Matthew Dapore 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NAVY Delay Of Game 5 yards from NAVY25 to NAVY20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel Haywood

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden Umbarger

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.08

Brad Roberts run for 24 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Navy 40

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Navy 39

3rd & 6Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.81

Haaziq Daniels run for 18 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

run for no gain to the Navy 21

2nd & 10Penalty-15 yds

PENALTY AF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daniels,Haaziq) 15 yards from NAVY21 to NAVY36. NO PLAY.

2nd & 25Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37

3rd & 26Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.58

run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 38

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
21 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
38%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
25 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th