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← Back to GamesSep 24, 2022Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

San Diego State by 0.9

Home Win Probability

San Diego State 49%

Market (consensus)

San Diego State +3

Edge: San Diego State +3 (3.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 24, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
0001414
San Diego StateSan Diego State
073717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-010-010-710-1417-14
San Diego StateToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSTOLSDSPUNT35ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT3-10ydPUNT32ydPUNT734ydMISS1154ydTD280ydTO831ydPUNT424ydTO1076ydPUNT623ydEND311ydTO320ydPUNT45ydPUNT35ydTO10ydPUNT31ydPUNT66ydPUNT416ydFG617ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT37ydTD1273ydPUNT38ydTD893ydTD967ydTO10ydEND1-14yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and San Diego State
StatisticToledoSan Diego State
Passing22-4013-24
Pass Yards25465
Rush Yards122217
Total Yards376282
Turnovers41
3rd Down6-131-12
Penalties6-5311-103
Possession31:4728:13

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
21/34, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Jacquez Stuart
14 CAR, 54 YDS
receiving
DeMeer Blankumsee
8 REC, 112 YDS
defense
San Diego State
passing
Braxton Burmeister
13/24, 65 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Byrd
16 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Mekhi Shaw
2 REC, 21 YDS
defense
Michael Shawcroft
0.5 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 65 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 25 yds to the SDSt 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for 4 yds to the SDSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the SDSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+15 yds

Jack Browning punt for 47 yds , Adam Beale returns for 15 yds to the Toled 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 1 yd to the Toled 39

2nd & 9Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.27

Dequan Finn sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 33

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt+3 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 42 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 3 yds to the SDSt 28

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BYRD, Jordan rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the SDS39 (BAUER, Nate). PENALTY SDS Holding on ABDULLAH, Dean enforced 10 yards from the SDS28 to the SDS18 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.19

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 17

2nd & 21Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.05

Braxton Burmeister run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18

3rd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 40

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the Toled 46

3rd & 5Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.15

Dequan Finn sacked by Garret Fountain for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 52 yds, downed at the SDSt 2

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jaylon Armstead run for 5 yds to the SDSt 7

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Jaylon Armstead run for 8 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.54

Jaylon Armstead run for 17 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.93

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kenan Christon for no gain to the SDSt 32

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Cam Davis for 4 yds to the SDSt 36

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 13 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Toled 45

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 44

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.88

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 13 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the SDSt 42

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.20

Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BOONE, Peny rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SDS29 (SHAWCROFT, Michael). PENALTY TOL Holding on ATEMAN, Kelvin enforced 10 yards from the SDS32 to the SDS42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Penalty+15 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Targeting on WHITE, Kyron enforced (15 Yards) to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the SDSt 17

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+36 yds

Thomas Cluckey 36 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +3.03

Jordan Byrd run for 37 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +3.35

Jordan Byrd run for 43 yds for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 45

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.35

Jacquez Stuart run for 10 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the SDSt 39

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.23

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

FINN, Dequan pass to the right incomplete intended for BLANKUMSEE, DeMeer broken up by JOHNSON, Chris at the SDS0. PENALTY TOL Holding on ROSI, Nick enforced 10 yards from the SDS34 to the SDS44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 20Interception0 ydsPPA -1.40

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.76

Kenan Christon run for 23 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Kenan Christon run for 1 yd to the Toled 37

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.70

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Toled 28

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 31

3rd & 3Penalty+5 yds

QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the TOL33 (LAKALAKA, Seyddrick), out of bounds. PENALTY SDS Offsides on MCDONALD, Caden enforced 5 yards from the TOL31 to the TOL36 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.43

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 28 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the SDSt 27

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the SDSt 16

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -4.36

Peny Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 13 Peny Boone fumbled, recovered by SDSt Cooper McDonald , return for no gain to the SDSt 13

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the SDSt 15

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 13

3rd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.94

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for 6 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Maxen Hook) to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 38

2nd & 6Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 36

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+9 yds

Jack Browning punt for 56 yds , Adam Beale returns for 9 yds to the Toled 17

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

FINN, Dequan pass to the left incomplete intended for NEWTON, Jerjuan thrown to the SDS48. PENALTY TOL Holding on SCIURY, Vinny enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TOL17 to the TOL8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 18Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.26

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 18

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 26

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.68

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST down

0th & 1End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Jack Browning kickoff for 62 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 16 yds to the Toled 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.20

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 39

2nd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -1.60

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.82

Jordan Byrd run for 12 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.93

Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 45

2nd & 15Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.89

Braxton Burmeister sacked by Maxen Hook for a loss of 8 yards to the SDSt 47

3rd & 23Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the Toled 47

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the Toled 19

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the Toled 20

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 41

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.34

Braxton Burmeister pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 16

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 yds, downed at the SDSt 48

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jordan Byrd run for no gain to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.57

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mark Redman for 10 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

QB Keeper BURMEISTER, Braxton rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the TOL31 (JOHNSON, Dyontae), out of bounds. PENALTY SDS Holding on PENNY, Brionne enforced 10 yards from the TOL40 to the SDS50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Kenan Christon run for 2 yds to the Toled 48

2nd & 18Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.10

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Kenan Christon for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 49

3rd & 21Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Jordan Byrd run for 5 yds to the Toled 46

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 6

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.51

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 14 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the Toled 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.81

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 16 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the Toled 31

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jordan Byrd run for 2 yds to the Toled 29

3rd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.77

Kenan Christon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 33

4th & 10Field Goal Good+50 yds

Jack Browning 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt+10 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 48 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 10 yds to the SDSt 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.00

Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 40 yds, downed at the Toled 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 7 yds to the Toled 34

2nd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.35

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.66

Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 20 yds to the SDSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the SDSt 35

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.80

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 14 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the SDSt 15

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 6

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Jackson Stoefen) to the SDSt 11

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 11Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +3.15

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+31 yds

Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 55 yds , Brionne Penny return for 31 yds to the SDSt 41

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Braxton Burmeister run for 2 yds to the SDSt 43

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jack Browning punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 7

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.33

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 9 yds to the Toled 16

3rd & 1Penalty+15 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (CJ Baskerville) to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the Toled 44

2nd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.20

Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Jamal Turner) to the Toled 49

1st & 15Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.08

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 36 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.62

Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 14 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 52 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 20 yds to the SDSt 33

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.67

Braxton Burmeister run for 18 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 5 yds to the Toled 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.61

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 7 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.37

Braxton Burmeister pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 13 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Braxton Burmeister pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.59

Braxton Burmeister run for 13 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kenan Christon run for 5 yds to the Toled 6

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Alama Uluave) to the Toled 11

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, False Start (Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson) to the Toled 16

2nd & 15Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.19

Braxton Burmeister run for 15 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Browning KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Jack Browning kickoff for 65 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 19 yds to the Toled 19

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dezjhon Malone) to the Toled 47

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
37%
30 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
43%
7 plays
42%
12 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
43%
23 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
44%
9 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
4th