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← Back to GamesSep 3, 2022Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 10.3

Home Win Probability

Air Force 74%

Market (consensus)

Air Force -14.5

Edge: Northern Iowa +14.5 (4.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 3, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northern Iowa
3001417
Air ForceAir Force
141314748

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428425621-317-320-334-341-348-348-17
Air ForceNorthern Iowa

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFNIAFPUNT534ydTD593ydFG1064ydTD275ydPUNT423ydFG1385ydTO315ydFG528ydTO561ydTD1396ydEND11ydTD275ydPUNT731ydTD1796ydPUNT833ydTD280ydTD575ydTO215ydTD340ydTO633ydMISS723ydEND3-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northern Iowa and Air Force
StatisticNorthern IowaAir Force
Passing20-323-6
Pass Yards286109
Rush Yards119582
Total Yards405691
Turnovers22
3rd Down2-87-11
Penalties2-155-21
Possession24:5835:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northern Iowa
passing
Theo Day
20/32, 286 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dom Williams
11 CAR, 45 YDS
receiving
Deion McShane
5 REC, 66 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Haaziq Daniels
3/6, 109 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brad Roberts
8 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Dane Kinamon
1 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 13 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.66

Theo Day pass complete to Quan Hampton for 20 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the AFA 47

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Dom Williams run for 4 yds to the AFA 43

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Theo Day pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Theo Day run for 2 yds to the AFA 41

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Cael Loecher punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 7

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 9

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.80

Haaziq Daniels run for 13 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the AFA 24

2nd & 8Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.58

Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 20

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +7.25

Dane Kinamon 80 Yd pass from Haaziq Daniels (Matthew Dapore Kick)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Dom Williams run for 13 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Dom Williams run for 5 yds to the NIowa 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.70

Theo Day pass complete to Quan Hampton for 18 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.22

Dom Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 41

2nd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.58

Theo Day pass complete to Logan Wolf for 12 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.24

Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 15 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Dom Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 13

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Dom Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 11

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Theo Day pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+28 yds

Matthew Cook 28 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +6.19

Dane Kinamon 71 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Vance McShane run for 16 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Vance McShane run for 2 yds to the NIowa 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Theo Day pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 6 yds to the NIowa 49

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

Vance McShane run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 48

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Cael Loecher punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 2

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the AFA 1

1st & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the AFA 11

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.40

DeAndre Hughes run for no gain to the AFA 13

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.41

Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the AFA 22

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.61

Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+40 ydsPPA +3.35

Haaziq Daniels run for 40 yds to the NIowa 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Dane Kinamon run for 6 yds to the NIowa 25

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Omar Fattah run for 4 yds to the NIowa 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the NIowa 19

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIowa 24

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the NIowa 21

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the NIowa 13

4th & 2Field Goal Good+30 yds

Matthew Dapore 30 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 59 yds , Quan Hampton return for 17 yds to the NIowa 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 5 yds to the NIowa 28

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.17

Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 10 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.05

Theo Day pass intercepted

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.05

Theo Day pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.73

Brad Roberts run for 20 yds to the NIowa 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

DeAndre Hughes run for 6 yds to the NIowa 18

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the NIowa 16

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.50

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the NIowa 16

4th & 2Field Goal Good+33 yds

Matthew Dapore 33 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Vance McShane run for 3 yds to the NIowa 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.04

Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 15 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Vance McShane run for 1 yd to the AFA 46

2nd & 9Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.83

Theo Day pass complete to Alex Allen for 27 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+15 ydsPPA -4.40

Theo Day run for 15 yds to the AFA 4 Theo Day fumbled, recovered by AFA Michael Mack II

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+15 ydsPPA -4.40

Theo Day run for 15 yds to the AFA 4 Theo Day fumbled, recovered by AFA Michael Mack II

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 6

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.62

John Lee Eldridge III run for 12 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 18

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.24

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 22 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.27

Haaziq Daniels run for 13 yds to the NIowa 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the NIowa 40

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.18

Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the NIowa 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +1.40

John Lee Eldridge III run for 27 yds to the NIowa 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NIowa 12

1st & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the NIowa 12

2nd & 12Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.91

Haaziq Daniels 12 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 45 yds , Harrison Bey-Buie return for 13 yds to the NIowa 48 NORTHERN IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jevon Brekke) to the NIowa 23

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Dom Williams run for 1 yd to the NIowa 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +6.19

Brad Roberts 71 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Quan Hampton return for 14 yds to the NIowa 14

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Theo Day pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.15

Theo Day pass complete to Deion McShane for 13 yds to the NIowa 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Dom Williams run for 5 yds to the NIowa 32

2nd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.18

Theo Day pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 9 yds to the NIowa 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Dom Williams run for 4 yds to the NIowa 45

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Dom Williams run for no gain to the NIowa 45

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Theo Day pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Cael Loecher punt for 51 yds, downed at the AFA 4

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 6

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the AFA 11

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.63

John Lee Eldridge III run for 8 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.66

John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (Omar Fattah) to the AFA 24

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Haaziq Daniels pass complete to James Bryant for 7 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the AFA 49

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.13

Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the NIowa 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the NIowa 45

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

DeAndre Hughes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NIowa 46

3rd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.79

Jensen Jones run for 15 yds to the NIowa 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Jensen Jones run for no gain to the NIowa 31

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the NIowa 29

3rd & 8Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.65

John Lee Eldridge III run for 22 yds to the NIowa 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Jensen Jones run for 2 yds to the NIowa 5

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the NIowa 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jensen Jones 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Vance McShane run for 1 yd to the NIowa 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.71

Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 12 yds to the NIowa 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Vance McShane run for 2 yds to the NIowa 40

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Vance McShane run for 6 yds to the NIowa 46

3rd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.99

Dom Williams run for 12 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Theo Day pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Theo Day pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Theo Day pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Cael Loecher punt for 42 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Owen Burk run for no gain to the AFA 20

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.94

Jalen Johnson 80 Yd Run (Anthony Rodriguez Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.11

Theo Day pass complete to Dom Williams for 40 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 6 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Theo Day pass complete to Sam Schnee for 5 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.17

Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 14 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Logan Wolf 10 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Jet Harris run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -2.17

Jet Harris run for 6 yds to the AFA 40 Jet Harris fumbled, recovered by NIowa Mo Olowo

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -2.17

Jet Harris run for 6 yds to the AFA 40 Jet Harris fumbled, recovered by NIowa Mo Olowo

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.56

Theo Day pass complete to Desmond Hutson for 19 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Amauri Pesek-Hickson run for 7 yds to the AFA 14

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.32

Sergio Morancy 14 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Aiden Calvert run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Sione Angilau run for 2 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.67

Cannon Turner run for 9 yds to the NIowa 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Johnathan Youngblood run for 5 yds to the NIowa 44

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kale Gibbs run for 4 yds to the NIowa 40

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-2 ydsPPA -3.20

Owen Burk run for a loss of 2 yards to the NIowa 42 Owen Burk fumbled, recovered by NIowa Caleb Frazer

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Theo Day pass complete to Sergio Morancy for 2 yds to the NIowa 44

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Theo Day pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.26

Theo Day pass complete to Harrison Bey-Buie for 21 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Theo Day pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Theo Day pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Theo Day pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Matthew Cook 52 yd FG MISSED

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Northern Iowa

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
1 play
80%
5 plays
60%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
26 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
0%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
79%
14 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th