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← Back to GamesSep 18, 2022Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

San Diego by 2

Home Win Probability

UC Davis 43%

Market (consensus)

UC Davis -24

Edge: San Diego +24 (26.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 18, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
San Diego
076013
UC Davis
14218043

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-028-735-735-1343-13
UC DavisSan Diego

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SDUDSDUDSDUDSDUDSDUDSDUDSDUDSDUDSDUDSDUDSDPUNT5-2ydTD650ydTO859ydTD678ydPUNT718ydTD319ydPUNT414ydTD265ydTD766ydTD871ydEND424ydMISS611ydTD672ydDOWNS840ydPUNT415ydTD480ydDOWNS1044ydPUNT616ydDOWNS929ydPUNT615ydEND13yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing San Diego and UC Davis
StatisticSan DiegoUC Davis
Passing18-2917-23
Pass Yards186281
Rush Yards166194
Total Yards352475
Turnovers10
3rd Down7-144-9
Penalties4-305-50
Possession34:1125:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

San Diego
passing
Judd Erickson
17/28, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Chris Childers
16 CAR, 90 YDS
receiving
Vance Jefferson
9 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
UC Davis
passing
Miles Hastings
16/21, 270 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Ulonzo Gilliam
12 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Lan Larison
3 REC, 66 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Judd Erickson pass complete to Rashaan Ward for 5 yds to the SnDgo 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.93

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 7 yds to the SnDgo 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Chris Childers run for no gain to the SnDgo 37

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Chris Childers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SnDgo 35

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.84

Chris Childers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SnDgo 35

3rd & 12Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.43

Judd Erickson sacked by Justin Martz for a loss of 12 yards to the SnDgo 23

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Aidan Lehman punt for 27 yds , returns for no gain to the 50 yard line

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Aidan Lehman punt for 27 yds , returns for no gain to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 4 yds to the SnDgo 46

2nd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 12 yds to the SnDgo 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.34

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 16 yds to the SnDgo 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.60

Miles Hastings run for a loss of 3 yards to the SnDgo 21

2nd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

run for 5 yds to the SnDgo 16

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.16

Miles Hastings pass complete to Justin Kraft for 16 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Gomez KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 21 yds to the SnDgo 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.94

Rashaan Ward run for 13 yds to the UCDav 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ERICKSON, Judd pass to the right incomplete intended for LAWSON, Dylan thrown to the UCD30. PENALTY UCD Pass Interference on ALEXANDER, Markeece enforced 15 yards to the UCD26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Re-al Mitchell run for 3 yds to the UCDav 23

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.82

Judd Erickson pass complete to Chris Childers for 7 yds to the UCDav 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Re-al Mitchell run for no gain to the UCDav 16

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.72

Judd Erickson pass intercepted

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.72

Judd Erickson pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+44 ydsPPA +3.34

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 44 yds to the SnDgo 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-22 ydsPPA -4.15

Miles Hastings sacked by Muhindo Kapapa for a loss of 22 yards to the UCDav 44

2nd & 32Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.15

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 1 yd to the UCDav 45

3rd & 31Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.73

Miles Hastings pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. for 21 yds to the SnDgo 34

4th & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.00

Miles Hastings pass complete to McCallan Castles for 24 yds to the SnDgo 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Trent Tompkins 10 Yd Run (Isaiah Gomez Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Judd Erickson run for 3 yds to the SnDgo 28

3rd & 7Penalty-15 yds

SAN DIEGO Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Childers) to the SnDgo 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.96

Chris Childers run for 23 yds to the SnDgo 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Chris Childers run for 1 yd to the SnDgo 45

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Chris Childers run for 1 yd to the SnDgo 45

2nd & 9Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.25

Re-al Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SnDgo 43

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

4th & 11Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Evan Tattersall blocked by Evan Tattersall

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.45

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SnDgo 20

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 11 yds to the SnDgo 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Gomez KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 44 yds , return for no gain to the SnDgo 21

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.99

Chris Childers run for 13 yds to the SnDgo 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 5 yds to the SnDgo 39

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Re-al Mitchell run for 1 yd to the SnDgo 40

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SnDgo 35

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt+15 yds

Aidan Lehman punt for 45 yds , Trent Tompkins returns for 15 yds to the UCDav 35

4th & 9Punt+15 yds

Aidan Lehman punt for 45 yds , Trent Tompkins returns for 15 yds to the UCDav 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+50 ydsPPA +2.68

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 50 yds to the SnDgo 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Miles Hastings pass complete to Matteo Perez for 15 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Gomez KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 53 yds , Hunter Nichols return for 22 yds to the SnDgo 34

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Chris Childers run for 2 yds to the SnDgo 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.68

Re-al Mitchell pass complete to Michael Carner for 9 yds to the SnDgo 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Chris Childers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SnDgo 42

2nd & 13Rush+21 ydsPPA +3.01

Chris Childers run for 21 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Javon Sturns run for 3 yds to the UCDav 34

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Rhyle Hanson run for 6 yds to the UCDav 28

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +3.04

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 28 yds for a TD, (Aidan Lehman KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Aidan Lehman kickoff for 60 yds , Lan Larison return for 24 yds to the UCDav 29

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCDav 34

2nd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.99

Miles Hastings pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. for 18 yds to the SnDgo 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Lan Larison run for no gain to the SnDgo 48

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Lan Larison run for 7 yds to the SnDgo 41

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.41

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 12 yds to the SnDgo 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Matteo Perez run for 6 yds to the SnDgo 23

2nd & 4Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.38

C.J. Hutton run for 16 yds to the SnDgo 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Trent Tompkins 7 Yd Run (Isaiah Gomez Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

SAN DIEGO Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SnDgo 10

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 59 yds , Hunter Nichols return for 9 yds to the SnDgo 15

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.20

Javon Sturns run for a loss of 1 yard to the SnDgo 9

1st & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.20

Javon Sturns run for a loss of 1 yard to the SnDgo 9

2nd & 16Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.20

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 10 yds to the SnDgo 19

2nd & 16Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.20

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 10 yds to the SnDgo 19

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.16

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 8 yds to the SnDgo 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.08

Javon Sturns run for 12 yds to the SnDgo 39 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+50 yds

Aidan Lehman kickoff for 54 yds , Trent Tompkins return for 50 yds to the SnDgo 39

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 4 yds to the SnDgo 35

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Miles Hastings pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. for 8 yds to the SnDgo 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.15

Miles Hastings run for a loss of 1 yard to the SnDgo 28

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+46 yds

Isaiah Gomez 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Chris Childers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SnDgo 26

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Judd Erickson pass complete to Rashaan Ward for 4 yds to the SnDgo 30

3rd & 8Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.78

Judd Erickson pass complete to Michael Carner for 31 yds to the UCDav 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.46

Chris Childers run for 15 yds to the UCDav 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 9 yds to the UCDav 15

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.04

Re-al Mitchell 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Aidan Lehman kickoff for 51 yds , Trent Tompkins return for 15 yds to the UCDav 29

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCDav 32

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCDav 37

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.18

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCDav 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +1.95

Lan Larison run for 28 yds to the SnDgo 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.64

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for no gain to the SnDgo 33

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

HASTINGS, Miles pass to the right incomplete intended for POERIO, Justin thrown to the USD5. PENALTY USD Offsides enforced 5 yards from the USD33 to the USD28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 5Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.18

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for a loss of 3 yards to the SnDgo 31

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.02

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Re-al Mitchell run for 12 yds to the SnDgo 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Re-al Mitchell run for 2 yds to the SnDgo 45

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Judd Erickson pass complete to Chris Childers for 1 yd to the SnDgo 46

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Aidan Lehman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trent Tompkins at the UCDav 20

1st & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.45

Miles Hastings pass complete to McCallan Castles for 17 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCDav 45

2nd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 3 yds to the UCDav 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

HASTINGS, Miles pass to the right complete for 37 yards to GILLIAM, Ulonzo caught at the USD38 and advanced to the USD15 (HONG, Joshua). PENALTY UCD Holding on SARALE, Nico enforced 10 yards from the UCD48 to the UCD38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Passing Touchdown+62 ydsPPA +6.22

Miles Hastings pass complete to Josh Gale for 62 yds for a TD, (T. Tompkins Run For Two-point Conversion)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+43 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 58 yds , Amir Wallace return for 43 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Re-al Mitchell run for 2 yds to the UCDav 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Judd Erickson pass complete to Michael Carner for 6 yds to the UCDav 42

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Judd Erickson pass complete to Michael Carner for 6 yds to the UCDav 42

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.08

Judd Erickson pass complete to Peyton Smith for 5 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.33

Re-al Mitchell run for 11 yds to the UCDav 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Chris Childers run for 2 yds to the UCDav 24

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.41

Chris Childers run for 9 yds to the UCDav 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.62

Re-al Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCDav 19

2nd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Chris Childers run for 5 yds to the UCDav 14

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

4th & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA -3.33

Judd Erickson pass complete to Vance Jefferson for 8 yds to the UCDav 6

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Matteo Perez run for 6 yds to the UCDav 12

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Matteo Perez run for 1 yd to the UCDav 13

3rd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.83

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lance Babb II for 10 yds to the UCDav 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Matteo Perez run for 2 yds to the UCDav 25

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

HASTINGS, Miles pass to the right incomplete intended for PEREZ, Matteo thrown to the UCD25. PENALTY UCD Holding on NAVA, Ernesto enforced 10 yards from the UCD25 to the UCD15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

3rd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.03

Matteo Perez run for 7 yds to the UCDav 22

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Henry Reich punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Amir Wallace at the SnDgo 45

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.71

Chris Childers run for 2 yds to the SnDgo 47

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.16

Chris Childers run for 6 yds to the UCDav 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Re-al Mitchell run for 6 yds to the UCDav 41

2nd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.55

Judd Erickson pass complete to Michael Carner for 14 yds to the UCDav 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Javon Sturns run for 3 yds to the UCDav 24

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Judd Erickson pass incomplete

4th & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -2.78

Chris Childers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 26

4th & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -2.78

Chris Childers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.96

Mitchell Dixon pass complete to Lance Babb II for 11 yds to the UCDav 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Mitchell Dixon run for 3 yds to the UCDav 40

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.46

Jeremiah Chukwudobe run for 8 yds to the UCDav 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Jeremiah Chukwudobe run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

CHUKWUDOBE, Jeremiah rush to the left for a gain of 15 yards to the USD35 (MURRAY, Nick). PENALTY UCD Holding on GALE, Josh enforced 10 yards from the UCD50 to the UCD40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Mitchell Dixon pass incomplete

3rd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Jeremiah Chukwudobe run for 6 yds to the UCDav 46

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

UC DAVIS Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UCDav 41

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Justin Dwinell punt for 34 yds

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Justin Dwinell punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Javon Sturns run for 3 yds to the SnDgo 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Javon Sturns run for 3 yds to the SnDgo 28

Situational Analysis

San Diego

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
40%
30 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
36%
14 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
3 plays

UC Davis

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
25 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
67%
6 plays
75%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays