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← Back to GamesOct 2, 2022Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 12.6

Home Win Probability

Montana State 76%

Market (consensus)

Montana State -3.5

Edge: Montana State -3.5 (9.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 2, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UC Davis
10311024
Montana State
71714341

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-77-1414-1321-1324-2138-2441-24
Montana StateUC Davis

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSPUNT418ydTD282ydTD875ydDOWNS831ydFG648ydPUNT35ydPUNT39ydTD483ydTO1457ydTD1091ydFG854ydFG948ydEND318ydPUNT37ydTD771ydTD227ydFG751ydTD272ydPUNT522ydPUNT39ydPUNT30ydPUNT31ydPUNT3-4ydFG1147ydDOWNS832ydEND839yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UC Davis and Montana State
StatisticUC DavisMontana State
Passing21-3613-21
Pass Yards242227
Rush Yards234325
Total Yards476552
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-157-15
Penalties4-252-10
Possession27:3832:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UC Davis
passing
Miles Hastings
20/34, 220 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Ulonzo Gilliam
24 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Justin Kraft
6 REC, 114 YDS
Montana State
passing
Sean Chambers
13/21, 227 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Sean Chambers
18 CAR, 203 YDS, 3 TD
receiving
Willie Patterson
3 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.87

Miles Hastings pass complete to McCallan Castles for 18 yds to the UCDav 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for no gain to the UCDav 38

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 5 yds to the UCDav 43

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Henry Reich punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Elijah Elliott run for 4 yds to the MntSt 22

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+78 ydsPPA +6.57

Sean Chambers run for 78 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Miles Hastings pass complete to Justin Kraft for 8 yds to the UCDav 33

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCDav 34

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCDav 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 9 yds to the UCDav 48

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.19

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 4 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Lan Larison run for 10 yds to the MntSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.88

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. 38 Yd Run (Isaiah Gomez Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Sean Chambers pass complete to Willie Patterson for 11 yds to the MntSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Elijah Elliott run for 5 yds to the MntSt 48

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Sean Chambers pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 4 yds to the UCDav 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the UCDav 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Clevan Thomas run for no gain to the UCDav 46

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Elijah Elliott run for 7 yds to the UCDav 39

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Derryk Snell run for 2 yds to the UCDav 37

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+32 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 65 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 32 yds to the MntSt 32

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.34

Sean Chambers run for no gain to the UCDav 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +2.65

Miles Hastings pass complete to Justin Kraft for 43 yds to the MntSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 1 yd to the MntSt 15

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for no gain to the MntSt 15

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 4 yds to the UCDav 41

4th & 9Field Goal Good+32 yds

Isaiah Gomez 32 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Sean Chambers pass complete to Derryk Snell for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Sean Chambers run for 6 yds to the MntSt 30

4th & 5Punt+4 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 41 yds , Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. returns for 4 yds to the UCDav 33

2nd & 11Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCDav 41

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCDav 42

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Miles Hastings pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UCDav 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Henry Reich punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Elijah Elliott run for 6 yds to the MntSt 23

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Sean Chambers 3 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)

2nd & 4Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.08

Sean Chambers pass complete to Ravi Alston for 37 yds to the UCDav 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +1.72

Sean Chambers pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 37 yds to the UCDav 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCDav 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.37

Miles Hastings pass complete to Justin Kraft for 13 yds to the UCDav 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Lan Larison run for 4 yds to the UCDav 48

2nd & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.88

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCDav 44

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Miles Hastings pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. for 9 yds to the MntSt 47

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.14

Lan Larison run for 2 yds to the MntSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Matteo Perez run for 2 yds to the MntSt 43

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.21

Matteo Perez run for 13 yds to the MntSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 23Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.24

Justin Poerio run for 25 yds to the MntSt 18 for a 1ST down

3rd & 10Penalty-10 yds

UC DAVIS Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MntSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.01

Miles Hastings sacked by Sebastian Valdez for a loss of 3 yards to the MntSt 33

2nd & 13Penalty-5 yds

UC DAVIS Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MntSt 38

2nd & 18Penalty-5 yds

UC DAVIS Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MntSt 43

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -4.41

Miles Hastings pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the MntSt 12

3rd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.89

Sean Chambers run for 9 yds to the MntSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.95

Sean Chambers run for 14 yds to the MntSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Sean Chambers pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 7 yds to the MntSt 42

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.53

Elijah Elliott run for 6 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.42

Sean Chambers pass complete to Willie Patterson for 34 yds to the UCDav 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

S. Chambers pass,to W. Patterson for 18 yds for a TD, (B. Glessner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 24 yds to the UCDav 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.68

Miles Hastings pass complete to Justin Kraft for 10 yds to the MntSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.35

Lan Larison run for 13 yds to the MntSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Matteo Perez run for 3 yds to the MntSt 25

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Matteo Perez run for 6 yds to the MntSt 19

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.87

Matteo Perez run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 21

4th & 3Field Goal Good+38 yds

Isaiah Gomez 38 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 55 yds , Derryk Snell return for 27 yds to the MntSt 37

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Sean Chambers run for 5 yds to the MntSt 42

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Sean Chambers run for 4 yds to the MntSt 46

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.34

Elijah Elliott run for 5 yds to the UCDav 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MntSt 46

1st & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sean Chambers pass complete to Derryk Snell for 5 yds to the UCDav 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.24

Sean Chambers pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 29 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Elijah Elliott run for 5 yds to the UCDav 15

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+33 yds

Blake Glessner 33 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 6 yds to the UCDav 41

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.39

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 12 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST down

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Elijah Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.50

Sean Chambers pass complete to Ravi Alston for 9 yds to the MntSt 32

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Sean Chambers run for no gain to the MntSt 32

4th & 3Punt+4 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 43 yds , Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. returns for 4 yds to the UCDav 29

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCDav 31

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Miles Hastings pass complete to Justin Kraft for 6 yds to the UCDav 37

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.38

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 4 yds to the UCDav 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 11 yds to the MntSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.97

Lan Larison run for 22 yds to the MntSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 4 yds to the MntSt 22

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.76

U. Gilliam Jr. pass,to M. Castles for 22 yds for a TD, (H. Reich Run For Two-point Conversion)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+67 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 59 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 67 yds to the UCDav 27

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Sean Chambers sacked by Zach Kennedy for a loss of 2 yards to the UCDav 29

2nd & 12Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +3.49

S. Chambers pass,to C. Thomas for 29 yds for a TD, (B. Glessner KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 64 yds , Lan Larison return for 25 yds to the UCDav 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.82

Miles Hastings pass complete to Justin Kraft for 34 yds to the MntSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 5 yds to the MntSt 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.29

Miles Hastings pass complete to Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. for 5 yds to the MntSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 2 yds to the MntSt 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 5 yds to the MntSt 23

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+40 yds

Isaiah Gomez 40 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Isaiah Gomez kickoff for 48 yds , Ryan Lonergan return for 11 yds to the MntSt 28

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Sean Chambers run for 7 yds to the MntSt 35

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +5.21

S. Chambers run for 65 yds for a TD, (B. Glessner KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 65 yds , Lan Larison return for 10 yds to the UCDav 10

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCDav 19

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.24

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCDav 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Lan Larison run for 4 yds to the UCDav 27

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCDav 30

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Lan Larison run for 2 yds to the UCDav 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Henry Reich punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Sean Chambers run for 1 yd to the MntSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.27

Sean Chambers pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 8 yds to the MntSt 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. at the UCDav 29

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.29

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCDav 24

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCDav 29

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+11 yds

Henry Reich punt for 34 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 11 yds to the MntSt 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Sean Chambers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Elijah Elliott run for 5 yds to the UCDav 47

3rd & 5Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.59

Sean Chambers sacked by Jayce Smalley for a loss of 4 yards to the MntSt 49

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Bryce Leighton punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCDav 16

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt+6 yds

Henry Reich punt for 49 yds , Neil Daily returns for 6 yds to the MntSt 41

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Sean Chambers run for 6 yds to the MntSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.03

Elijah Elliott run for 2 yds to the UCDav 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Elijah Elliott run for 12 yds to the UCDav 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Elijah Elliott run for 5 yds to the UCDav 31

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Elijah Elliott run for 4 yds to the UCDav 27

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Sean Chambers run for 7 yds to the UCDav 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Garrett Coon run for 2 yds to the UCDav 18

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Elijah Elliott run for 4 yds to the UCDav 14

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the UCDav 12

4th & 2Field Goal Good+30 yds

Blake Glessner 30 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 60 yds , Lan Larison return for 17 yds to the UCDav 22

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.52

Ulonzo Gilliam Jr. run for 18 yds to the UCDav 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 4 yds to the UCDav 44

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Miles Hastings run for 3 yds to the UCDav 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.59

Miles Hastings pass complete to McCallan Castles for 4 yds to the MntSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Lan Larison pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Lan Larison run for 3 yds to the MntSt 46

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Garrett Coon run for no gain to the MntSt 46

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MntSt 41

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Garrett Coon run for 5 yds to the MntSt 46

3rd & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +3.58

Garrett Coon run for 29 yds to the UCDav 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Garrett Coon run for 2 yds to the UCDav 23

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Garrett Coon run for 4 yds to the UCDav 19

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Garrett Coon run for 2 yds to the UCDav 17

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.75

Garrett Coon run for 3 yds to the UCDav 14 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

UC Davis

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
33 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
70%
10 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
48%
25 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
33%
6 plays
44%
9 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
0%
4 plays
100%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays