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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2022Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 8.7

Home Win Probability

Montana State 69%

Market (consensus)

Montana State +1.5

Edge: Montana State +1.5 (10.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Montana
7001421
Montana State
2110101455

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-714-728-731-741-748-748-1455-1455-21
Montana StateMontana

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSMONMSMONMONMSMONMSMONMSMONMSMONMSMONMSMONMSTD675ydTD1075ydTD775ydTD5-22ydPUNT31ydTD1690ydTO1063ydFG1380ydPUNT39ydTD478ydTO431ydFG846ydDOWNS637ydTD1162ydTD1075ydTD960ydTD676ydEND34yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Montana and Montana State
StatisticMontanaMontana State
Passing18-297-10
Pass Yards219122
Rush Yards96439
Total Yards315561
Turnovers30
3rd Down4-86-11
Penalties6-457-85
Possession20:2139:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Montana
passing
Lucas Johnson
14/23, 137 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Daniel Britt
9 CAR, 64 YDS
receiving
Malik Flowers
4 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
6/8, 104 YDS
rushing
Tommy Mellott
15 CAR, 141 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Treyton Pickering
4 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Tommy Mellott run for 12 yds to the MntSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.70

Elijah Elliott run for 20 yds to the Mont 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +0.82

Tommy Mellott run for 31 yds to the Mont 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Tommy Mellott run for 2 yds to the Mont 10

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.76

Elijah Elliott run for 9 yds to the Mont 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Tommy Mellott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Mont 20

1st & 15Penalty+15 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (TEAM) to the Mont 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Nick Ostmo run for 4 yds to the Mont 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.13

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Malik Flowers for 6 yds to the Mont 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nick Ostmo run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.95

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Nick Ostmo for 6 yds to the MntSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MntSt 49

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Nick Ostmo run for 3 yds to the MntSt 46

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mitch Roberts for 4 yds to the MntSt 42

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.19

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mitch Roberts for 12 yds to the MntSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Malik Flowers for 30 yds for a TD, (Nico Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Elijah Elliott run for 21 yds to the MntSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MntSt 41

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Elijah Elliott run for 7 yds to the MntSt 48

2nd & 8Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.72

Sean Chambers run for 13 yds to the Mont 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.38

Sean Chambers run for 11 yds to the Mont 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Sean Chambers run for 4 yds to the Mont 24

2nd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.28

Tommy Mellott run for 12 yds to the Mont 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Tommy Mellott run for 12 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Flowers return for 22 yds to the Mont 22

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Nick Ostmo run for 13 yds to the Mont 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Nick Ostmo run for 1 yd to the Mont 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Mont 31

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 14Fumble Return Touchdown+31 ydsPPA -6.71

Jory Choate 31 Yd Fumble Return (Blake Glessner Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 55 yds , Junior Bergen return for 19 yds to the Mont 44

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Lucas Johnson run for 8 yds to the MntSt 48

2nd & 2Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.48

Lucas Johnson sacked by Blake Schmidt for a loss of 5 yards to the Mont 47

3rd & 7Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.96

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Keelan White for a loss of 2 yards to the Mont 45

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Patrick Rohrbach punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Elijah Elliott run for 2 yds to the MntSt 12

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Marqui Johnson run for 5 yds to the MntSt 17

3rd & 3Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.97

Tommy Mellott run for 9 yds to the MntSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Tommy Mellott run for 10 yds to the MntSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.09

Elijah Elliott run for 11 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Tommy Mellott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MntSt 46

2nd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Tommy Mellott run for 12 yds to the Mont 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Marqui Johnson run for 9 yds to the Mont 33

2nd & 1Penalty0 yds

MONTANA Penalty, Personal Foul (Robby Hauck) to the Mont 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the Mont 12

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Sean Chambers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mont 13

3rd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.65

Sean Chambers run for 10 yds to the Mont 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the Mont 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Sean Chambers run for no gain to the Mont 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Sean Chambers run for no gain to the Mont 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Sean Chambers run for 1 yd for a TD MONTANA Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) declined, (Blake Glessner KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 61 yds , Malik Flowers return for 15 yds to the Mont 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mitch Roberts for 5 yds to the Mont 39

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.47

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Nick Ostmo for 12 yds to the MntSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Nick Ostmo run for 7 yds to the MntSt 42

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.05

Nick Ostmo run for 3 yds to the MntSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (TEAM) to the MntSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Padraig Lang run for 9 yds to the MntSt 15

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.49

Xavier Harris run for 3 yds to the MntSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.59

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mitch Roberts for 11 yds to the MntSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-2 ydsPPA -5.10

Nick Ostmo run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 3 Nick Ostmo fumbled, recovered by MntSt Callahan O'Reilly

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Garrett Coon run for 3 yds to the MntSt 6

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Garrett Coon run for 2 yds to the MntSt 8

3rd & 5Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.92

Tommy Mellott run for 14 yds to the MntSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Elijah Elliott run for 8 yds to the MntSt 30

2nd & 2Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.13

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 28 yds to the Mont 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Elijah Elliott run for 6 yds to the Mont 36

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.08

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the Mont 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.22

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 11 yds to the Mont 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.46

Elijah Elliott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mont 21

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Elijah Elliott run for 4 yds to the Mont 17

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+34 yds

Blake Glessner 34 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Nick Ostmo run for 2 yds to the Mont 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Mitch Roberts for 7 yds to the Mont 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Patrick Rohrbach punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Elijah Elliott run for 1 yd to the MntSt 23

2nd & 9Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.86

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 26 yds to the MntSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.18

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Derryk Snell for 24 yds to the Mont 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Marqui Johnson run for 27 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Aaron Fontes for 14 yds to the Mont 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.24

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Cole Grossman for 14 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Lucas Johnson pass complete to Nick Ostmo for 3 yds to the MntSt 44

2nd & 7Interception0 ydsPPA -3.03

Lucas Johnson pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the MntSt 38

1st & 15Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.61

Tommy Mellott run for 11 yds to the MntSt 49

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.53

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the Mont 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Marqui Johnson run for 8 yds to the Mont 38

2nd & 2Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.24

Marqui Johnson run for 24 yds to the Mont 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Sean Chambers run for 4 yds to the Mont 10

2nd & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.55

Sean Chambers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mont 13

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the Mont 11

4th & 7Field Goal Good+28 yds

Blake Glessner 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Nick Ostmo run for no gain to the Mont 25

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Campbell) to the MntSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Lucas Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Lucas Johnson run for 6 yds to the MntSt 39

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Daniel Britt run for 3 yds to the MntSt 36

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -2.44

Daniel Britt run for a loss of 2 yards to the MntSt 38

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Elijah Elliott run for 8 yds to the MntSt 46

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Elijah Elliott run for 6 yds to the Mont 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mont 45

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Marqui Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mont 44

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.83

Tommy Mellott run for 6 yds to the Mont 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the Mont 35

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Elijah Elliott run for 8 yds to the Mont 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the Mont 25

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Sean Chambers run for 2 yds to the Mont 23

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Sean Chambers run for 5 yds to the Mont 18

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +3.26

Derryk Snell pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 63 yds , Malik Flowers return for 23 yds to the Mont 25

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Daniel Britt run for 5 yds to the Mont 30

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.13

Daniel Britt run for 9 yds to the Mont 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Daniel Britt run for 8 yds to the Mont 47

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.01

Daniel Britt run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Daniel Britt run for 5 yds to the MntSt 45

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Xavier Harris run for 2 yds to the MntSt 43

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.20

Xavier Harris run for 3 yds to the MntSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.62

Daniel Britt pass complete to Ryan Simpson for 24 yds to the MntSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.63

Daniel Britt run for 15 yds to the MntSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Isiah Childs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nico Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Elijah Elliott run for 3 yds to the MntSt 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 10 yds to the Mont 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Elijah Elliott run for 7 yds to the Mont 40

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Treyton Pickering for 5 yds to the Mont 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.05

Garrett Coon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mont 37

2nd & 12Penalty+36 yds

MONTANA Penalty, Illegal Block (Jayden Dawson) to the Mont 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.50

Sean Chambers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mont 5

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

R.J. Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Mont 3

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

R.J. Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 58 yds , Malik Flowers return for 17 yds to the Mont 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Daniel Britt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Daniel Britt pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.78

Daniel Britt pass complete to Malik Flowers for 20 yds to the Mont 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.28

Daniel Britt run for 18 yds to the MntSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Daniel Britt pass complete to Malik Flowers for 6 yds to the MntSt 32

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.84

Daniel Britt pass complete to Cole Grossman for 32 yds for a TD, (Nico Ramos KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Garrett Coon run for 4 yds to the Mont 39

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

[NHSG] Kneel down by MSU at UMT39 (team loss of 0).

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

[NHSG] Kneel down by MELLOTT, Tommy at UMT39 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Montana

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
67%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
80%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
3 plays
50%
32 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
80%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
64%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays