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← Back to GamesNov 13, 2022Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 32.6

Home Win Probability

Cal Poly 4%

Market (William Hill (New Jersey))

Cal Poly +25.5

Edge: Montana State -25.5 (7.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 13, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Montana State
242714772
Cal Poly
01414028

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284256700-177-277-4114-5121-5828-6528-72
Cal PolyMontana State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPCPMSCPMSMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPMSCPPUNT617ydFG842ydPUNT417ydTD468ydTO420ydTD643ydPUNT3-4ydTD271ydTD775ydFG761ydDOWNS520ydTD336ydTD31ydPUNT421ydTD278ydTD675ydFG1353ydTD773ydTD565ydTD475ydTD1178ydTD1475ydPUNT34ydDOWNS551ydPUNT32ydTO513ydEND1-13yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Montana State and Cal Poly
StatisticMontana StateCal Poly
Passing12-2326-36
Pass Yards190317
Rush Yards55491
Total Yards744408
Turnovers12
3rd Down11-144-12
Penalties3-354-60
Possession33:3826:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Montana State
passing
Sean Austin
5/6, 110 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Marqui Johnson
13 CAR, 242 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Clevan Thomas
3 REC, 73 YDS
Cal Poly
passing
Spencer Brasch
24/34, 275 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Troy Fletcher
18 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Josh Cuevas
9 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Shakobe Harper run for 1 yd to the CPoly 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.51

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Shakobe Harper for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.42

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 16 yds to the CPoly 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 2 yds to the CPoly 42

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 62 yds , Adam Garwood return for 22 yds to the CPoly 25

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Michael Roth punt for 29 yds, downed at the MntSt 29

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Michael Roth punt for 29 yds, downed at the MntSt 29

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Elijah Elliott run for 4 yds to the MntSt 33

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.73

Elijah Elliott run for 13 yds to the MntSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Elijah Elliott run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Marqui Johnson run for 10 yds to the CPoly 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.44

Marqui Johnson run for a loss of 7 yards to the CPoly 32

2nd & 17Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Garrett Coon run for 3 yds to the CPoly 29

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 6Penalty+15 yds

MELLOTT, Tommy pass incomplete intended for ALSTON, Ravi thrown to the CPM16. PENALTY CPM Pass Interference on WYATT, Dylan enforced 15 yards to the CPM35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Adam Garwood run for 12 yds to the CPoly 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 4 yds to the CPoly 41

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Adam Garwood run for 1 yd to the CPoly 42

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Michael Roth punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MntSt 32

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Michael Roth punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MntSt 32

1st & 10Rush+49 ydsPPA +2.91

Elijah Elliott run for 49 yds to the CPoly 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.84

Elijah Elliott run for a loss of 5 yards to the CPoly 24

2nd & 15Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.70

Marqui Johnson run for 12 yds to the CPoly 12

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.75

Marqui Johnson 12 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Shakobe Harper run for 10 yds to the CPoly 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Shakobe Harper run for 1 yd to the CPoly 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.80

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 9 yds to the CPoly 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.72

Spencer Brasch pass intercepted

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.72

Spencer Brasch pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Tommy Mellott run for 7 yds to the CPoly 36

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Elijah Elliott for 2 yds to the CPoly 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.52

run for 3 yds to the CPoly 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.90

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 30 yds to the CPoly 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tommy Mellott run for no gain to the CPoly 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Derryk Snell 1 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Adam Garwood run for 6 yds to the CPoly 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -1.53

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Adam Garwood for a loss of 10 yards to the CPoly 21

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Thomas Lee punt for 50 yds, downed at the MntSt 29

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Thomas Lee punt for 50 yds, downed at the MntSt 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+71 ydsPPA +6.61

Marqui Johnson 71 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kahliq Paulette run for no gain to the CPoly 25

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

run for 3 yds to the CPoly 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.01

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Logan Booher for 21 yds to the CPoly 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Troy Fletcher run for 2 yds to the MntSt 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.01

Chris Coleman pass complete to Spencer Brasch for 34 yds to the MntSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Troy Fletcher for 7 yds to the MntSt 8

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.25

Josh Cuevas 8 Yd pass from Kahliq Paulette (Jaden Ohlsen Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Marqui Johnson run for 2 yds to the MntSt 27

3rd & 8Penalty0 yds

CAL POLY Penalty, Offsides (Elijah Ponder) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Garrett Coon run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 14

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Good+32 yds

Blake Glessner 32 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.80

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 13 yds to the CPoly 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 2 yds to the CPoly 31

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Shakobe Harper run for 6 yds to the CPoly 37

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Troy Fletcher run for 1 yd to the CPoly 38

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.36

Troy Fletcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 36

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.36

Troy Fletcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 36

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Jaden Ohlsen kickoff for 43 yds , R.J. Fitzgerald return for 5 yds to the MntSt 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +4.67

Marqui Johnson 36 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Troy Fletcher run for 19 yds to the CPoly 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -1.47

Spencer Brasch run for a loss of 18 yards Spencer Brasch fumbled, recovered by MntSt Ben Seymour for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 26 yds to the MntSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

2nd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

3rd & 25Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.21

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 10 yds to the CPoly 46

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

BRASCH, Spencer pass complete for 4 yards to COLEMAN, Chris to the MSU45 (O'REILLY, McCade). PENALTY CPM Chop Block on HIRSCHLER, Tanner enforced 15 yards from the MSU49 to the CPM36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 15Punt+15 yds

Thomas Lee punt for 47 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 15 yds to the MntSt 22

4th & 15Punt+15 yds

Thomas Lee punt for 47 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 15 yds to the MntSt 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+78 ydsPPA +6.89

Marqui Johnson run for 78 yds for a TD, (Blake Glessner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Troy Fletcher run for 1 yd to the CPoly 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Zedakiah Centers for 10 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

run for 7 yds to the CPoly 43

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.03

Troy Fletcher run for 1 yd to the CPoly 44

3rd & 2Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.53

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 22 yds to the MntSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +2.94

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 34 yds for a TD, (Jaden Ohlsen KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

run for 11 yds to the MntSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 8 yds to the CPoly 48

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.01

Marqui Johnson run for 1 yd to the CPoly 47

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.01

Marqui Johnson run for 3 yds to the CPoly 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.57

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Willie Patterson for 13 yds to the CPoly 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 13 yds to the CPoly 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Malik Mullins for 7 yds to the CPoly 11

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.04

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 7 yds to the CPoly 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Marqui Johnson run for no gain to the CPoly 4

2nd & 4Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.09

Tommy Mellott sacked by David Meyer for a loss of 10 yards to the CPoly 14

3rd & 14Field Goal Good+31 yds

Blake Glessner 31 Yd Field Goal

0th & 14End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.27

Marqui Johnson run for 14 yds to the MntSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Marqui Johnson run for 10 yds to the CPoly 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sean Austin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.04

Elijah Elliott run for 19 yds to the CPoly 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.28

Sean Austin pass complete to Malik Mullins for 18 yds to the CPoly 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Elijah Elliott run for 5 yds to the CPoly 7

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.46

Aidan Garrigan 7 Yd pass from Sean Austin (Blake Glessner Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Troy Fletcher run for no gain to the CPoly 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.64

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 18 yds to the MntSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.06

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Troy Fletcher for 32 yds to the MntSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.62

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 14 yds to the MntSt 1 for a 1ST down

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+31 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 61 yds , Dominique Thompson return for 31 yds to the CPoly 35

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Troy Fletcher 1 Yd Run (Jaden Ohlsen Kick)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Garrett Coon run for 8 yds to the MntSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.98

Garrett Coon run for 13 yds to the MntSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+53 ydsPPA +3.25

Sean Austin pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 53 yds to the CPoly 1 for a 1ST down

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+1 yds

Jaden Ohlsen kickoff for 41 yds , return for 1 yd to the MntSt 25

1st & 1Penalty-5 yds

MONTANA ST Penalty, False Start (Treyton Pickering) to the CPoly 6

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Garrett Coon 6 Yd Run (Blake Glessner Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Blake Glessner kickoff for 59 yds , Dominique Thompson return for 16 yds to the CPoly 22

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Troy Fletcher run for 7 yds to the CPoly 29

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Troy Fletcher run for 7 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Troy Fletcher run for 11 yds to the CPoly 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 6 yds to the MntSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Troy Fletcher run for 2 yds to the MntSt 45

3rd & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.92

Troy Fletcher run for a loss of 4 yards to the MntSt 49

4th & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +3.14

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Logan Booher for 9 yds to the MntSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.66

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 8 yds to the MntSt 32

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Troy Fletcher run for 9 yds to the MntSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Zedakiah Centers 23 Yd pass from Spencer Brasch (Jaden Ohlsen Kick)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Garrett Coon run for 5 yds to the MntSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Garrett Coon run for 4 yds to the MntSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Garrett Coon run for 2 yds to the MntSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tayvian Williams run for 4 yds to the MntSt 40

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.12

Tayvian Williams run for 6 yds to the MntSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Garrett Coon run for 3 yds to the MntSt 49

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Garrett Coon run for 2 yds to the CPoly 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.86

Sean Austin pass complete to Garrett Coon for 5 yds to the CPoly 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Sean Austin run for no gain to the CPoly 44

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Garrett Coon run for 8 yds to the CPoly 36

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.80

Garrett Coon run for 5 yds to the CPoly 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Tayvian Williams run for 3 yds to the CPoly 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Tayvian Williams run for 1 yd to the CPoly 27

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.52

Garrett Coon 27 Yd pass from Sean Austin (Blake Glessner Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Troy Fletcher run for 3 yds to the CPoly 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Chris Coleman for 1 yd to the CPoly 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Spencer Brasch pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Thomas Lee punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MntSt 40

1st & 10Rush+43 ydsPPA +2.18

Garrett Coon run for 43 yds to the CPoly 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.01

run for 8 yds to the CPoly 9 MONTANA ST Penalty, Block below the waist on SLAUGHTER, Devin enforced (-15 Yards) to the CPoly 24

2nd & 17Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.71

Tayvian Williams run for 12 yds to the CPoly 12

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Tayvian Williams run for 3 yds to the CPoly 9

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -4.00

Tayvian Williams run for no gain to the CPoly 9

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Troy Fletcher run for 3 yds to the CPoly 12

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Troy Fletcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 11

3rd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.09

Spencer Brasch pass complete to Troy Fletcher for no gain to the CPoly 11

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Thomas Lee punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MntSt 40

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tayvian Williams run for 5 yds to the MntSt 45

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Tayvian Williams run for 3 yds to the MntSt 48

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.55

Sean Austin run for 6 yds to the CPoly 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.93

Sean Austin run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Sean Austin fumbled, recovered by MntSt Sean Austin , return to the 50 yard line

2nd & 14Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -1.52

Tayvian Williams run for 3 yds to the CPoly 47 Tayvian Williams fumbled, recovered by CPoly Ian Don

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

CAL POLY Penalty, Block below the waist on ROBASCIOTTI, Seth enforced (-15 Yards) to the CPoly 32

1st & 25Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Troy Fletcher run for 2 yds to the CPoly 34

Situational Analysis

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
47%
34 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
55%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Cal Poly

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
30 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
50%
12 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play