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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 12.4

Home Win Probability

North Carolina 77%

Market (consensus)

North Carolina -9.5

Edge: North Carolina -9.5 (2.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Virginia TechVirginia Tech
370010
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
71717041

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-37-314-321-321-1024-1031-1034-1041-10
North CarolinaVirginia Tech

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTNCVTPUNT620ydFG959ydTD1275ydPUNT619ydTD1185ydTO410ydTD116ydPUNT619ydPUNT34ydTD1469ydFG448ydPUNT620ydTD1294ydPUNT36ydFG861ydPUNT36ydTD455ydPUNT39ydMISS943ydPUNT720ydPUNT34ydDOWNS928ydPUNT32ydEND13yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Virginia Tech and North Carolina
StatisticVirginia TechNorth Carolina
Passing20-3527-41
Pass Yards174367
Rush Yards99160
Total Yards273527
Turnovers10
3rd Down8-186-15
Penalties3-224-25
Possession31:4328:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Virginia Tech
passing
Grant Wells
16/26, 139 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Keshawn King
9 CAR, 52 YDS
receiving
Kaleb Smith
3 REC, 49 YDS
defense
North Carolina
passing
Drake Maye
26/36, 363 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Drake Maye
13 CAR, 73 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Josh Downs
8 REC, 120 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.96

Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Caleb Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 37

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the NCaro 45

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Caleb Hood

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 31 yds, fair catch by DJ Harvey at the VTech 24

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Keshawn King run for 5 yds to the VTech 29

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 3 yds to the VTech 32

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.21

Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Keshawn King run for 6 yds to the VTech 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.06

Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 34 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Keshawn King run for no gain to the NCaro 24

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Christian Moss

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY VT False Start (Dzansi,Silas) 5 yards from UNC24 to UNC29. NO PLAY.

3rd & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.22

Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 12 yds to the NCaro 17

4th & 3Field Goal Good+34 yds

William Ross 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Caleb Hood run for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones

2nd & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.18

Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 29 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.37

Caleb Hood run for 18 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the VTech 14

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the VTech 13

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the VTech 7

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.84

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the VTech 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the VTech 4

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the VTech 5

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the VTech 3

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.92

Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 3 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Da'Wain Lofton run for 3 yds to the VTech 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the VTech 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.37

Grant Wells pass complete to Keshawn King for 14 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

Grant Wells run for no gain to the VTech 44

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain Lofton

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Peter Moore punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 18

2nd & 7Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.95

Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 21 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.35

Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 9 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.04

Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 6 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine Green

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY UNC False Start (Downs,Josh) 5 yards from VT 46 to UNC49. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 2 yds Omarion Hampton fumbled, recovered by NCaro

3rd & 17Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the VTech 43

4th & 7Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +3.37

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 24 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.67

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 18 yds to the VTech 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Drake Maye run for no gain to the VTech 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Drake Maye run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the VTech 15

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Grant Wells run for 6 yds to the VTech 21

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.60

Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.79

Grant Wells pass intercepted

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Keshawn King run for 6 yds to the VTech 24

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Keshawn King run for 3 yds to the VTech 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.71

Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the VTech 26

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the VTech 30

3rd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 7 yds to the VTech 37

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Peter Moore punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 21

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCaro 27

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Drake Maye pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+5 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds , DJ Harvey returns for 5 yds to the VTech 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Grant Wells pass complete to Nick Gallo for 8 yds to the VTech 39

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.04

Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith

2nd & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.81

Keshawn King run for 25 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Keshawn King run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Grant Wells pass complete to Chance Black for 1 yd to the NCaro 28

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 11 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Chance Black run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Chance Black

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the NCaro 14

4th & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.32

Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 7 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Jalen Holston run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Bryce Duke run for 1 yd to the NCaro 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Grant Wells run for 2 yds for a TD, (William Ross KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.11

Drake Maye run for 14 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.61

Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds to the VTech 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+44 yds

Noah Burnette 44 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Grant Wells pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the VTech 33

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Grant Wells run for 5 yds to the VTech 41

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Grant Wells pass complete to Da'Wain Lofton for 4 yds to the VTech 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Bryce Duke run for no gain to the VTech 45

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Peter Moore punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 5

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 7

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 6 yds to the NCaro 13

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine Green

2nd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.19

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the NCaro 18

3rd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.43

Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.16

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 24 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Kobe Paysour pass incomplete to Drake Maye

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin Blackwell

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.67

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.84

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 35 yds to the VTech 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Drake Maye run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Grant Wells run for no gain to the VTech 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Nick Gallo

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Grant Wells pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 6 yds to the VTech 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Drake Maye pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.40

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 20 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+35 ydsPPA +1.02

Omarion Hampton run for 35 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 1 yd to the VTech 10

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the VTech 4

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Gavin Blackwell

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Noah Burnette 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Chance Black run for 2 yds to the VTech 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Da'Wain Lofton

3rd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Grant Wells pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the VTech 31

4th & 4Punt+16 yds

Peter Moore punt for 40 yds , Josh Downs returns for 16 yds to the NCaro 45

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the NCaro 41

2nd & 14Fumble Recovery (Own)+33 ydsPPA +3.51

Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 33 yds Josh Downs fumbled, recovered by NCaro Gavin Blackwell for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake sacked for loss of 1 yard to the VT 27 (Nelson,Cole) PENALTY UNC Holding (Montilus,Ed) 10 yards from VT 26 to VT 36. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.83

D.J. Jones run for 11 yds to the VTech 25

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.08

Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 25 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Noah Burnette kickoff for 65 yds , Keshawn King return for 22 yds to the VTech 22

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Bryce Duke run for 1 yd to the VTech 23

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Grant Wells pass incomplete to Kaleb Smith

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Grant Wells pass complete to Jaylen Jones for 8 yds to the VTech 31

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Peter Moore punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cam'Ron Kelly at the NCaro 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 4 yds to the NCaro 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.22

Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 7 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the NCaro 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 4 yds to the VTech 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.59

Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 25 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the VTech 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+39 yds

Noah Burnette 39 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Jason Brown pass complete to Nick Gallo for 6 yds to the VTech 28

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.54

Bryce Duke run for 5 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY VT False Start (Jordan,Johnny) 5 yards from VT 33 to VT 28. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Jason Brown pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 9 yds to the VTech 37

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.12

Chance Black run for 6 yds to the VTech 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jason Brown pass incomplete to Da'Wain Lofton

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Jason Brown pass incomplete to Nick Gallo

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Jason Brown sacked by Jacolbe Cowan for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 42

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Peter Moore punt for 58 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to George Pettaway

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Justin Olson for 4 yds to the NCaro 24

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to George Pettaway

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by William Kakavitsas at the VTech 33

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chance Black run for 5 yds to the VTech 38

2nd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.40

Jason Brown pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 11 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Jason Brown pass incomplete to Jadan Blue

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Chance Black run for 4 yds to the NCaro 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.12

Jason Brown pass complete to Jaylen Jones for 9 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Bryce Duke run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36

2nd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.58

Jason Brown sacked by Randy Caldwell for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 44

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Jason Brown pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright

4th & 16Penalty+5 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Jason pass incomplete short right to Jones,Jaylen PENALTY UNC Offside (Hamrick,Malaki) 5 yards from UNC44 to UNC39. NO PLAY.

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Jason Brown pass incomplete to Jaylen Jones

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

George Pettaway run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37

2nd & 12Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY UNC False Start (Pounds,Diego) 5 yards from UNC37 to UNC32. NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

George Pettaway run for 6 yds to the NCaro 38

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jacolby Criswell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Cole Maynard punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Bryce Duke run for 3 yds to the VTech 48

Situational Analysis

Virginia Tech

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
28%
25 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
8 plays
25%
12 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
100%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
38%
29 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
46%
13 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play