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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5
VirginiaVirginia
17
-Final
38
DukeDuke
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Duke by 2.2

Home Win Probability

Duke 54%

Market (consensus)

Duke -2

Edge: Duke -2 (0.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
VirginiaVirginia
073717
DukeDuke
14771038

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284221-021-735-1035-17
DukeVirginia

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DUKVIRDUKVIRDUKDUKDUKVIRVIRDUKVIRDUKVIRDUKVIRDUKVIRDUKVIRDUKPUNT57ydPUNT936ydTD687ydPUNT612ydTD958ydTD941ydPUNT1048ydPUNT620ydTD1183ydPUNT37ydPUNT36ydTD672ydPUNT30ydTO814ydFG1447ydTD470ydTD774ydFG119ydTO625ydUncategorized36yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Virginia and Duke
StatisticVirginiaDuke
Passing19-3718-24
Pass Yards202129
Rush Yards93248
Total Yards295377
Turnovers20
3rd Down8-145-13
Penalties6-873-38
Possession22:5136:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Virginia
passing
Brennan Armstrong
19/37, 202 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Perris Jones
8 CAR, 41 YDS
receiving
Keytaon Thompson
6 REC, 61 YDS
defense
Duke
passing
Riley Leonard
18/24, 129 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jaylen Coleman
19 CAR, 97 YDS
receiving
Jalon Calhoun
6 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Shaka Heyward
1 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Jaylen Coleman run for 7 yds to the Duke 34

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.54

Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 2 yds to the Duke 38

3rd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the Duke 34

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+38 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 62 yds , Demick Starling return for 38 yds to the Virg 41 Demick Starling fumbled, recovered by Duke Terry Moore , return for no gain to the Virg 41

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Brendan Farrell kickoff for 65 yds , Jaylen Stinson return for 14 yds to the Duke 14

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 64 yds , Mike Hollins return for 27 yds to the Virg 28

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Brendan Farrell kickoff for 59 yds , Jalon Calhoun return for 24 yds to the Duke 30

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Charlie Ham kickoff for 58 yds , Mike Hollins return for 19 yds to the Virg 26

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+28 yds

Brendan Farrell kickoff for 63 yds , Jaylen Stinson return for 28 yds to the Duke 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IV

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the Virg 34

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.54

Perris Jones run for 8 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds to the Virg 48

2nd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.99

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 1 yd to the Virg 47

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.10

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 7 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the Duke 39

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brennan Armstrong punt for 26 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 6 yds to the Duke 19

2nd & 4Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.32

Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 17 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalon Calhoun) to the Virg 3

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.60

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 19 yds for a TD DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalon Calhoun) to the Virg 0 (Charlie Ham KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the Virg 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 4 yds to the Virg 48

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.40

Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the Virg 47

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Xavier Brown run for 5 yds to the Duke 48

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

punt for no gain

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Jaylen Coleman run for 9 yds to the Virg 49

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.36

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.00

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Virg 46

2nd & 9Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.64

Riley Leonard run for 17 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Virg 6

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Virg 2

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.46

Riley Leonard 2 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 39

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 37

3rd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Virg 32

4th & 1Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.51

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.14

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 6 yds to the Virg 7

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.89

Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Virg 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Duke 14

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.70

Jaylen Coleman run for 10 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 26

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.53

Riley Leonard run for 11 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 3 yds to the Duke 40

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

3rd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.79

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Riley Leonard pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 5 yds to the Virg 42

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 25 yds

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds

2nd & 11Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.86

Perris Jones 11 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Will Bettridge Kick)

1st & 4Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.17

Brennan Armstrong run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 11

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 13

3rd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the Duke 21

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 57 yds

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks, broken up by Ja'Mion Franklin

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 29

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Brennan Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Virg 34

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Riley Leonard 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 13 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.18

Riley Leonard run for 14 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +0.66

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan Moore for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Anthony Johnson) to the Virg 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.62

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 23 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jaylen Coleman run for 6 yds to the Virg 1

4th & 10Punt+43 yds

Daniel Sparks punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 39 , Jalon Calhoun returns for 43 yds to the Virg 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson, broken up by Michael Reese

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Perris Jones, broken up by DeWayne Carter

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.

4th & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-12 ydsPPA -2.70

Jackson Hubbard run for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 37 Jackson Hubbard fumbled, recovered by Duke Charlie Ham

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Virg 34

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the Virg 30

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 31

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.47

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.93

Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 31

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli Pancol, broken up by Anthony Johnson

3rd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Virg 25

4th & 16Field Goal Good+34 yds

Will Bettridge 34 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07
2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.19

Perris Jones run for 12 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Grant Misch for 6 yds to the Duke 45

2nd & 4Rush-14 ydsPPA -3.44

Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the Virg 44 VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Logan Taylor) to the Virg 41

3rd & 18Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.82

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 19 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.43

Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 12 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.23

Mike Hollins run for 15 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30
2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

pass incomplete to Dontayvion Wicks

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion+9 ydsPPA +0.33

Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon Thompson for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Chandler Rivers) to the Duke 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Mike Hollins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 5

3rd & 5Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.71

Brennan Armstrong sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 16

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 28

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Duke 33

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.10

Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +4.66

Jaquez Moore 59 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Brennan Armstrong 5 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)

4th & 6Field Goal Good+34 yds

Charlie Ham 34 Yd Field Goal

2nd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST down

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.04

Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Terry Moore run for 4 yds to the Duke 37

0th & 1End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

Situational Analysis

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
42%
12 plays
2nd
0%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
60%
25 plays
2nd
80%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play