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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2022Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 22.3

Home Win Probability

Michigan 91%

Market (consensus)

Michigan -17

Edge: Michigan -17 (5.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
IllinoisIllinois
0314017
MichiganMichigan
703919

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-310-1013-1716-1719-17
MichiganIllinois

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MICILLMICILLMICILLMICILLMICILLILLMICILLMICILLMICILLMICILLMICILLMICILLTD775ydPUNT38ydPUNT860ydPUNT34ydPUNT712ydDOWNS1044ydPUNT3-3ydFG1059ydTO862ydEND610ydPUNT35ydFG724ydTD967ydDOWNS1038ydTD363ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-9ydFG515ydDOWNS1044ydFG1254ydPUNT3-3ydFG835ydEND214yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Illinois and Michigan
StatisticIllinoisMichigan
Passing21-3018-34
Pass Yards178208
Rush Yards148168
Total Yards326376
Turnovers01
3rd Down5-137-19
Penalties4-404-25
Possession24:5735:03

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Illinois
passing
Tommy DeVito
21/30, 178 YDS
rushing
Chase Brown
29 CAR, 140 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Casey Washington
6 REC, 53 YDS
defense
Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
18/34, 208 YDS
rushing
Blake Corum
18 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Colston Loveland
3 REC, 50 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+37 ydsPPA +2.98

Blake Corum run for 37 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.45

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 16 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Max Bredeson for 4 yds to the Illin 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.48

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 11 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Illin 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Illin 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)

3rd & 0Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 8

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the Illin 33

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 64 yds, downed at the Mich 3

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 4

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 7

3rd & 6Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.22

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 41 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.60

J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 46 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, recovered by Mich J.J. McCarthy

2nd & 12Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.55

C.J. Stokes run for 17 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Illin 36

3rd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 37

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the Illin 23

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+5 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 45 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 5 yds to the Mich 37

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

C.J. Stokes run for 3 yds to the Mich 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.36

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the Mich 46

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 46

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.08

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the Mich 49

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 31 yds, downed at the Illin 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Miles Scott for 10 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 34

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Miles Scott

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.30

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 2 yds to the Mich 43

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Mich 39

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the Mich 36

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -2.44

Chase Brown run for no gain to the Mich 36

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.36

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 34

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 39

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 29

3rd & 17Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 24

3rd & 22Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.08

Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 33

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.68

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 18 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.57

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 12 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Isaiah Williams run for 13 yds to the Mich 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Mich 18

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Mich 11

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Chase Brown run for no gain to the Mich 11

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds to the Mich 6

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 11

4th & 6Field Goal Good+29 yds

Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 34

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.28

Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +3.05

Blake Corum run for 25 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.56

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 22 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -4.08

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Illin 13 Blake Corum fumbled, recovered by Illin Jer'Zhan Newton

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 15

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 19

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.78

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the Illin 29

2nd & 4Rush-9 ydsPPA -1.37

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 30 ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 20

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 23

0th & 13End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 6 yds to the Illin 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 48

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

C.J. Stokes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Illin 45

3rd & 3Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.73

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 14 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

C.J. Stokes run for 3 yds to the Illin 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel Anthony

4th & 7Field Goal Good+46 yds

Jake Moody 46 yd FG GOOD

4th & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Jake Moody kickoff for 59 yds , Peyton Vining return for 27 yds to the Illin 33

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Illin 49

1st & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA -0.36

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Mich 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.46

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Mich 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.33

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 17 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey Washington

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Mich 8

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.61

Chase Brown run for 8 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

C.J. Stokes run for 7 yds to the Mich 32

2nd & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.26

C.J. Stokes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 30

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.88

C.J. Stokes run for 9 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.75

C.J. Stokes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 35

2nd & 14Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Isaiah Gash run for 4 yds to the Mich 39

3rd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.45

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Isaiah Gash for 20 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

C.J. Stokes run for 1 yd to the Illin 40

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the Illin 37

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.68

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel Anthony

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.44

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 16 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 10 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.05

Chase Brown run for 37 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

C.J. Stokes run for 1 yd to the Mich 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the Mich 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 28 yds, downed at the Illin 43

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 45

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)-11 ydsPPA -1.15

TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Illin 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Illin

4th & 19Punt+40 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 44 yds , Ronnie Bell returns for 40 yds to the Illin 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 12 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.39

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Isaiah Gash for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 30

3rd & 14Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the Illin 23

4th & 7Field Goal Good+41 yds

Jake Moody 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 4 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.47

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.12

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 18 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Mich 33

3rd & 8Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.02

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for no gain to the Mich 33

4th & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -1.82

Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds to the Mich 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.31

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 27 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the Illin 41

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Isaiah Gash run for 1 yd to the Illin 40

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.02

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the Illin 24

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Isaiah Gash run for 1 yd to the Illin 23

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

C.J. Stokes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 15

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland

4th & 11Field Goal Good+33 yds

Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 28

3rd & 7Penalty-10 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 18

3rd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 22

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 30 yds, downed at the Mich 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 3 yds to the Illin 49

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

J.J. McCarthy run for 4 yds to the Illin 45

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Tavierre Dunlap run for no gain to the Illin 45

4th & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.64

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Isaiah Gash for 8 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Illin 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the Illin 17

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

4th & 5Field Goal Good+35 yds

Jake Moody 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
29 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
36%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
28 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
29%
14 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays