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← Back to GamesNov 5, 2022Week 10
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Illinois by 18.8

Home Win Probability

Illinois 86%

Market (consensus)

Illinois -16

Edge: Illinois -16 (2.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 5, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Michigan StateMichigan State
3614023
IllinoisIllinois
700815

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-37-97-1615-23
IllinoisMichigan State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLMSILLTO10ydDOWNS939ydPUNT39ydTD259ydFG1572ydPUNT622ydTD761ydTO753ydPUNT44ydDOWNS1463ydEND210ydPUNT47ydPUNT524ydPUNT612ydTD629ydTO46ydTD341ydTD856ydPUNT33ydDOWNS1180ydPUNT730ydDOWNS4-4ydMISS4-5ydEND955yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan State and Illinois
StatisticMichigan StateIllinois
Passing19-2925-37
Pass Yards182288
Rush Yards112153
Total Yards294441
Turnovers11
3rd Down3-116-17
Penalties7-774-39
Possession28:0531:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
19/29, 182 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jalen Berger
15 CAR, 81 YDS
receiving
Jayden Reed
5 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Illinois
passing
Tommy DeVito
25/37, 288 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Chase Brown
33 CAR, 136 YDS
receiving
Isaiah Williams
5 REC, 98 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.92

Payton Thorne pass intercepted Sydney Brown return for no gain to the MchSt 41

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.48

Chase Brown run for 13 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.18

Chase Brown run for 11 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the MchSt 13

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.25

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 7 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Chase Brown run for no gain to the MchSt 3

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Tommy DeVito run for no gain to the MchSt 3

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.15

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.13

Jalen Berger run for no gain to the MchSt 3

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.10

Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the MchSt 11

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds, downed at the Illin 41

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 40

2nd & 11Passing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +6.00

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 60 yds for a TD, (Caleb Griffin KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.53

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Payton Thorne run for no gain to the MchSt 41

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 21 yds to the ILLINOIS 38 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Daniel Barker) to the MchSt 47

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.65

Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the Illin 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +0.86

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tahveon Nicholson) to the Illin 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Illin 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.59

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Broussard, Jarek rush for 4 yards to the ILLINOIS15, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Brown, Spencer) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS29, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.76

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 13 yds to the Illin 16

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.05

Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the Illin 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.75

Elijah Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 10

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the Illin 7

3rd & 0Penalty+4 yds

Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY ILLINOIS offside (Newton, Jer'Zhan) 4 yards to the ILLINOIS3, NO PLAY.

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Ben Patton 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 24

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.44

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 18 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 42

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 42

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Brian Hightower

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 19 yds, downed at the MchSt 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 1 yd to the MchSt 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.04

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 34 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 7 yds to the Illin 19

2nd & 3Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.92

Jalen Berger run for 16 yds to the Illin 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Illin 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Illin 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the Illin 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.42

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.52

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 10 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Josh McCray for 9 yds to the MchSt 36

2nd & 1Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.88

Josh McCray run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 40

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+18 ydsPPA -2.60

Chase Brown run for 18 yds to the MchSt 22 Chase Brown fumbled, forced by Xavier Henderson, recovered by MchSt Aaron Brule

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.84

Elijah Collins run for 11 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.10

Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 32

2nd & 11Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.73

Payton Thorne sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton and Calvin Hart Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 26

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah Collins

4th & 17Punt+2 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 68 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 2 yds to the Illin 8

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 14

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Tommy DeVito run for 11 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.56

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 17 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 8 yds to the MchSt 40

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.05

Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Chase Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 36

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Pat Bryant for 4 yds to the MchSt 32

3rd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.46

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 12 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat Bryant

3rd & 9Penalty-15 yds

DeVito, Tommy pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MICHIGANST23 (Mallory, Dashaun), PENALTY ILLINOIS illegal block (Brown, Chase) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST34, NO PLAY.

3rd & 24Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 5 yds to the MchSt 29

4th & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip Reiman

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.31

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 14 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.90

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 39

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.34

Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 22

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat Bryant

3rd & 5Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.38

Tommy DeVito sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 14

4th & 13Punt+53 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 38 yds, downed at the ILLINOIS 48 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MchSt 33

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+13 ydsPPA +1.24

Jalen Berger run for 13 yds to the MchSt 46 Jalen Berger fumbled, forced by Jartavius Martin, recovered by MchSt - Team for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.83

Jalen Berger run for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 44

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Illin 43

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 11

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 19

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 20

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.54

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.64

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Hank Beatty for no gain to the Illin 23

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 23

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hugh Robertson punt for 6 yds, downed at the Illin 29

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 30

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 7 yds to the Illin 23

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

4th & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 9 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Illin 11

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.65

Jarek Broussard run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the Illin 42

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 44

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Tommy DeVito run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 41 Tommy DeVito fumbled, recovered by Illin Chase Brown

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.62

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 21 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the Illin 16

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.64

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)

2nd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 42 yds , Pat Bryant return for 21 yds to the Illin 44

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 47

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.92

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Ford for 8 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.51

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 13 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.25

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 16 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the MchSt 8

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 7

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.73

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds for a TD, (Tommy DeVito pass to Tip Reiman for Two-Point Conversion)

3rd & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+8 yds

Caleb Griffin kickoff for 39 yds , Tyrell Henry return for 8 yds to the MchSt 34

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 1

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.23

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 10 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+12 yds

DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Bryant, Pat, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Brantley, Charles) 12 yards to the ILLINOIS23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 30

2nd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.08

Chase Brown run for 12 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.35

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Josh McCray for 3 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben VanSumeren) to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Reiman, Tip, PENALTY ILLINOIS illegal formation 5 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 7 yds to the MchSt 37

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.81

Reggie Love III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 19

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

Reggie Love III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 20

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.55

Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the MchSt 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 22

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.08

Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.11

Jalen Berger run for 24 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 46

2nd & 12Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the MchSt 49

2nd & 17Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the MchSt 49

3rd & 17Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Payton Thorne run for no gain to the MchSt 49

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 13

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Illin 19

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Reggie Love III

3rd & 4Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.36

Tommy DeVito sacked by Simeon Barrow for a loss of 6 yards to the Illin 13

4th & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA +0.35

Tommy DeVito sacked by Cal Haladay and Derrick Harmon for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 9

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Illin 7

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Jayden Reed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 9

3rd & 0Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 14

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah Collins

4th & 0Field Goal Missed+31 yds

Ben Patton 31 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat Bryant

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip Reiman

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip Reiman

4th & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.76

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 22 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Chase Brown for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.83

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 23 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey Washington

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Casey Washington

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Tommy DeVito pass complete to Brian Hightower for 2 yds Brian Hightower fumbled, forced by Chester Kimbrough, recovered by Illin Brian Hightower

Situational Analysis

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
30%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
100%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Illinois

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
56%
32 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
29%
7 plays
29%
7 plays
40%
10 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play