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← Back to GamesOct 29, 2022Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 26

Home Win Probability

Michigan 93%

Market (consensus)

Michigan -22.5

Edge: Michigan -22.5 (3.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 29, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Michigan StateMichigan State
70007
MichiganMichigan
31061029

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-010-713-716-719-722-729-7
MichiganMichigan State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICPUNT510ydTO733ydDOWNS49ydFG841ydTD675ydTD880ydDOWNS1068ydFG1586ydEND52ydFG1157ydPUNT34ydFG954ydPUNT34ydFG827ydDOWNS4-17ydTD28ydPUNT58ydPUNT830ydTO849ydEND737yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan State and Michigan
StatisticMichigan StateMichigan
Passing17-3015-26
Pass Yards215167
Rush Yards37276
Total Yards252443
Turnovers11
3rd Down2-119-16
Penalties7-754-25
Possession19:2740:33

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
17/30, 215 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Elijah Collins
7 CAR, 22 YDS
receiving
Keon Coleman
5 REC, 155 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
15/25, 167 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Blake Corum
33 CAR, 177 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Luke Schoonmaker
5 REC, 70 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jalen Berger run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.55

Jayden Reed run for 17 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-10 ydsPPA -2.86

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the MICHIGAN 46 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jarrett Horst) to the MchSt 39

2nd & 20Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the MchSt 34

2nd & 25Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.22

Payton Thorne run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 30

3rd & 29Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.09

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds to the MchSt 40

4th & 19Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 35

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 30

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Mich 37

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell, broken up by Charles Brantley

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.80

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 7 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 8 yds to the MchSt 48

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.01

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.01

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -3.59

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds Cornelius Johnson fumbled, forced by Xavier Henderson, recovered by MchSt Dashaun Mallory

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 6 yds to the MchSt 44

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Olusegun Oluwatimi) to the Mich 49

1st & 15Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MchSt 43

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.70

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.18

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 28 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.92

Blake Corum run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 7

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 8

3rd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 3 yds to the MchSt 5

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Jake Moody 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Berger

3rd & 8Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.67

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 29 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 6 yds to the Mich 26

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.65

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.99

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 18 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.48

Blake Corum run for 17 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.60

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 13 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.55

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 24 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 4

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.02

Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel Barker, broken up by DJ Turner

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37

3rd & 9Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.71

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 27 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.46

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 22 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Mich 11

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Mich 7

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Mich 5

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -4.15

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 7

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.66

Blake Corum run for 16 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Mich 29

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 31

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.07

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.86

J.J. McCarthy run for 21 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MchSt 38

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Andrel Anthony

4th & 3Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.39

J.J. McCarthy run for 16 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the MchSt 13

2nd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.04

Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 9

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the MchSt 7

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Luke Schoonmaker

4th & 7Field Goal Good+25 yds

Jake Moody 25 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the MchSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Mike Sainristil

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cornelius Johnson) to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 32

1st & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.63

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for no gain to the MchSt 32

2nd & 15Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.49

Payton Thorne sacked by Mike Morris and Mazi Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 27

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 65 yds , Roman Wilson return for 22 yds to the Mich 22

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.32

Blake Corum run for 16 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Blake Corum run for 10 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 49

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MchSt 49

3rd & 7Penalty+15 yds

McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie (Williams, Ronald), PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer (Harmon, Derrick) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Corum, Blake rush for no gain to the MICHIGANST34, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Zinter, Zak) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.45

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 13 yds to the MchSt 31

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.70

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

J.J. McCarthy run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21

4th & 7Field Goal Good+39 yds

Jake Moody 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon Coleman, broken up by Rod Moore

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 40 yds, downed at the Mich 31

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Blake Corum run for 12 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.70

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 29 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MchSt 19

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.14

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16

2nd & 8Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.70

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 19

3rd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 15

4th & 7Field Goal Good+33 yds

Jake Moody 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.86

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel Barker

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 34 yds, downed at the Mich 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 45

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 47

2nd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.14

J.J. McCarthy run for 12 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 5 yds to the MchSt 36

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards

4th & 5Field Goal Good+54 yds

Jake Moody 54 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 6 yds to the MchSt 31

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jack Nickel

4th & 6Rush-21 ydsPPA +0.16

TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards to the MchSt 8

1st & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Blake Corum run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 8 yds to the MchSt 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon Coleman

2nd & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Payton Thorne sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 33

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel Barker

4th & 15Punt+50 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 50 yds , A.J. Henning returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 16

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 20

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 23

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.97

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 31

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.33

Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 5 yds to the Mich 44

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 46

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Brad Robbins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +3.90

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 51 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Mich 25

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr, broken up by Mike Morris

4th & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.96

Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 9 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Maliq Carr) to the Mich 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel Barker

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+34 ydsPPA -3.58

Payton Thorne pass intercepted Rod Moore return for 34 yds to the Mich 41

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 46

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.94

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ronnie Bell pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MchSt 42

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Olusegun Oluwatimi) to the MchSt 47

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Johnson, Cornelius, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Williams, Ronald) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

C.J. Stokes run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.78

C.J. Stokes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
42%
19 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
22%
9 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
56%
32 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
46%
13 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
78%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play