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← Back to GamesOct 15, 2022Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Even matchup

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 47%

Market (consensus)

Michigan State +7

Edge: Michigan State +7 (7.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2022

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QOTFinal
WisconsinWisconsin
7707728
Michigan StateMichigan State
70771334

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-77-1414-1421-2128-28
Michigan StateWisconsin

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSWISMSMSWISWISMSPUNT3-8ydTD1163ydDOWNS1473ydTO20ydTD212ydTD975ydPUNT628ydPUNT416ydPUNT510ydPUNT3-4ydEND14ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT515ydPUNT1248ydTD897ydPUNT49ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT35ydTD665ydTD952ydDOWNS1075ydTD125ydTD325ydTO1-1ydTD325yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Wisconsin and Michigan State
StatisticWisconsinMichigan State
Passing14-2422-30
Pass Yards131290
Rush Yards15299
Total Yards283389
Turnovers21
3rd Down4-127-15
Penalties8-729-103
Possession32:4326:43

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Wisconsin
passing
Graham Mertz
14/24, 131 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Braelon Allen
29 CAR, 123 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Chimere Dike
4 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
21/28, 265 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jalen Berger
16 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jayden Reed
9 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27

3rd & 8Penalty0 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 32

1st & 15Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.49

Braelon Allen run for 20 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.51

Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness ( Yards) to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15

2nd & 11Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.36

Graham Mertz sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 22

3rd & 18Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.60

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.91

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45

2nd & 5Penalty-15 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.19

Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.26

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the Wisc 15

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.54

Elijah Collins run for no gain to the Wisc 15

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.22

Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the Wisc 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 7

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the Wisc 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wisc 1

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -4.21

Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 2

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 2

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA +0.23

Graham Mertz pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Jalen Berger run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.84

Braelon Allen run for 34 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 7 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.85

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 32

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the MchSt 26

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 11 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.62

Graham Mertz run for 14 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the MchSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 8

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Gavin Lahm kickoff for 58 yds , Germie Bernard return for 21 yds to the MICHIGANST 44 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Dillon Tatum) to the MchSt 13

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 9

2nd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the MchSt 12

3rd & 11Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.35

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 26 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 3 yds to the MchSt 46

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 41

4th & 7Punt+1 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds , Dean Engram returns for 1 yd to the Wisc 17

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Targeting on FLETCHER, Michael enforced (15 Yards) to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the Wisc 36

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.33

Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 36

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.04

Graham Mertz run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 33

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 37 yds, downed at the MchSt 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 37

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.46

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 41

2nd & 11Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.85

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 40

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 5 yds to the Wisc 38

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 33

3rd & 7Penalty-15 yds

MERTZ, Graham pass to the right complete for 14 yards to DIKE, Chimere caught at the WIS43 and advanced to the WIS47 (HALADAY, Cal;BRANTLEY, Charles). PENALTY WIS Block below the waist on ALLEN, Braelon enforced 15 yards from the WIS33 to the WIS18 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 22Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.04

Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 26

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 42 yds, downed at the MchSt 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 4 yds to the MchSt 36

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 57 yds , Isaac Guerendo return for 11 yds to the Wisc 19

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.87

Graham Mertz sacked by Charles Brantley for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 11

2nd & 18Rush0 ydsPPA -0.06

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 11

3rd & 18Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.01

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 6 yds to the Wisc 17

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 64 yds , Jayden Reed returns for no gain MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Block below the waist on BERNARD, Germie enforced (Germie Bernard) to the MchSt 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.43

Jalen Berger run for 12 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+4 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 54 yds , Dean Engram returns for 4 yds to the Wisc 15

1st & 10Penalty-4 yds

ALLEN, Braelon rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the WIS19 (WINDMON, Jacoby). PENALTY WIS Holding on BORTOLINI, Tanor enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the WIS15 to the WIS8. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 17Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.17

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 5

2nd & 20Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 11

3rd & 14Penalty+15 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Charles Brantley) to the Wisc 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.25

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 14 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 46

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.59

Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.06

run for 9 yds to the MchSt 40

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.75

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 34 yds, downed at the MchSt 3

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 2

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 8

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 8 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+72 ydsPPA +4.05

Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 72 yds to the Wisc 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Wisc 9

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Wisc 7

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.85

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Elijah Collins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 54 yds , Haakon Anderson return for 13 yds to the Wisc 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.19

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 14 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 40

2nd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.54

Graham Mertz sacked by Simeon Barrow for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 32

3rd & 16Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.12

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 1 yd to the Wisc 33

4th & 15Punt+4 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 45 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 4 yds to the MchSt 26

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.43

Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the MchSt 27

3rd & 9Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.31

Payton Thorne sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 20

4th & 16Punt+12 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 68 yds , Dean Engram returns for 12 yds to the Wisc 24

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Wisc 27

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 35

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jalen Berger run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 9 yds to the Wisc 41

3rd & 1Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.85

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 44

4th & 4Penalty+15 yds

THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for REED, Jayden thrown to the WIS20, clock 07:46. PENALTY WIS Pass Interference on HALLMAN, Ricardo enforced 15 yards to the WIS29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +3.07

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 27 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+45 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 62 yds , Isaac Guerendo return for 45 yds to the Wisc 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.87

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 13 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the MchSt 33

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.16

Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Trey Wedig) to the MchSt 30

2nd & 14Penalty-5 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Tanor Bortolini) to the MchSt 35

2nd & 19Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.30

Skyler Bell run for 27 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the MchSt 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the MchSt 3

4th & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.92

Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Van Dyke KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Gavin Lahm kickoff for 65 yds , Xavier Henderson return for 22 yds to the MchSt 22

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 29

3rd & 3Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.07

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 25 yds to the Wisc 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.26

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 47

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Wisc 44

3rd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.19

Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the Wisc 28

3rd & 2Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 29

4th & 3Interception0 ydsPPA -2.81

Bryce Baringer pass intercepted

0th & 3End of Regulation0 yds

End of 4th Quarter

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Jayden Reed pass complete to Keon Coleman for 25 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Graham Mertz pass incomplete

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +3.76

Chimere Dike 25 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Jack Van Dyke Kick)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -4.30

Braelon Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 26 Braelon Allen fumbled, recovered by MchSt Dashaun Mallory

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Wisc 22

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (J.D. Duplain) to the Wisc 27

2nd & 12Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.72

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the Wisc 27

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +4.10

Jayden Reed 27 Yd pass from Payton Thorne

Situational Analysis

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
38%
24 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
44%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
32%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
67%
12 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays