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← Back to GamesOct 15, 2022Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 11.3

Home Win Probability

Michigan 75%

Market (consensus)

Michigan -7

Edge: Michigan -7 (4.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 15, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Penn StatePenn State
0143017
MichiganMichigan
610151041

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-06-013-013-716-1424-1734-1741-17
MichiganPenn State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MICPSMICPSMICPSMICMICPSPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICPSMICFG1164ydPUNT38ydFG1377ydPUNT36ydTD1370ydTD775ydTD533ydFG1160ydEND1-1ydFG970ydTD481ydDOWNS936ydTD161ydPUNT516ydFG1548ydDOWNS622ydTD647ydDOWNS942ydEND422yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Penn State and Michigan
StatisticPenn StateMichigan
Passing12-2917-24
Pass Yards157145
Rush Yards111418
Total Yards268563
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-1211-17
Penalties5-559-61
Possession18:0441:56

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Penn State
passing
Sean Clifford
7/19, 120 YDS
rushing
Sean Clifford
6 CAR, 74 YDS
receiving
Mitchell Tinsley
5 REC, 57 YDS
defense
Michigan
passing
J.J. McCarthy
17/24, 145 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Donovan Edwards
16 CAR, 173 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Cornelius Johnson
3 REC, 43 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.71

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mich 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.74

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.45

Blake Corum run for 12 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 4 yds to the PnSt 20

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.18

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the PnSt 16

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards

4th & 4Field Goal Good+29 yds

Jake Moody 29 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 34

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Barney Amor punt for 50 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.85

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 35 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.04

Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the PnSt 39

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.29

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Luke Schoonmaker

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 7 yds to the PnSt 27

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 9 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the PnSt 13

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.85

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 7 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the PnSt 2

2nd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.69

Blake Corum run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 5

3rd & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.37

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 yds

Jake Moody 24 Yd Field Goal

4th & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Jake Moody kickoff for 56 yds , Nicholas Singleton return for 19 yds to the PnSt 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Sean Clifford run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 29

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

Clifford, Sean pass complete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre for 2 yards to the PENNST31, PENALTY MICHIGAN offside 5 yards to the PENNST34, NO PLAY.

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Barney Amor punt for 36 yds, downed at the Mich 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 5 yds to the Mich 35

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Mich 36

3rd & 4Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.59

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 15 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 7 yds to the PnSt 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.86

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 1 yd to the PnSt 41

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.03

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.33

Donovan Edwards run for 12 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

J.J. McCarthy run for 8 yds to the PnSt 16

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.31

Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the PnSt 4

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PnSt 2

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.52

Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the PnSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+62 ydsPPA +4.41

Sean Clifford run for 62 yds to the Mich 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Mich 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Mich 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Kaytron Allen 1 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)

4th & 7Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Jake Pinegar kickoff for 56 yds , A.J. Henning return for 17 yds to the Mich 26

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell

2nd & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +2.98

Donovan Edwards run for 25 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman Wilson

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.81

Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the PnSt 41

3rd & 2Interception Return Touchdown+47 ydsPPA -9.96

Curtis Jacobs 47 Yd Interception Return (Jake Pinegar Kick)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.45

J.J. McCarthy run for 13 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.14

Blake Corum run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 39

2nd & 12Penalty+15 yds

McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Dixon, Johnny) 15 yards to the PENNST24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Luke Schoonmaker

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the PnSt 10

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the PnSt 5

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Blake Corum run for no gain to the PnSt 5

4th & 2Field Goal Good+23 yds

Jake Moody 23 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Jake Moody kickoff for 61 yds , Nicholas Singleton return for 16 yds to the PnSt 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton Strange

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.06

Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 16 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith

2nd & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +3.62

Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 48 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Mich 14

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the Mich 10

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley

4th & 4Field Goal Good+27 yds

Jake Pinegar 27 Yd Field Goal

4th & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Jake Pinegar kickoff for 62 yds , A.J. Henning return for 16 yds to the Mich 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 19

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 6 yds to the Mich 25

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.41

J.J. McCarthy run for 8 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+67 ydsPPA +5.43

Donovan Edwards 67 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Jake Moody kickoff for 52 yds , Nicholas Singleton return for 12 yds to the PnSt 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the PnSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Tyler Warren

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 41

3rd & 8Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +3.08

Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 16 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Singleton, Nicholas rush for 3 yards to the MICHIGAN40, PENALTY MICHIGAN substitution infraction 5 yards to the MICHIGAN38, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the Mich 37

3rd & 4Penalty-15 yds

Clifford, Sean pass complete to Singleton, Nicholas for 10 yards to the MICHIGAN27, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Warren, Tyler) 15 yards to the PENNST48, NO PLAY.

3rd & 19Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.28

Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Mich 39

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.49

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+61 ydsPPA +4.86

Blake Corum 61 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Jake Moody kickoff for 62 yds , Nicholas Singleton return for 10 yds to the PnSt 13

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.26

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 15 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley

3rd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.29

Sean Clifford sacked by R.J. Moten for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 29

4th & 12Punt+5 yds

Barney Amor punt for 43 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 5 yds to the Mich 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 36

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Edwards, Donovan rush for 2 yards to the MICHIGAN38, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Keegan, Trevor) 10 yards to the MICHIGAN26, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Fumble Recovery (Own)+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the Mich 31 Donovan Edwards fumbled, forced by Chris Stoll, recovered by Mich Trevor Keegan

3rd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.79

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 14 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.57

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Andrel Anthony for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 47

3rd & 8Fumble Recovery (Own)+7 ydsPPA +0.48

J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the PnSt 46 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, forced by Daequan Hardy, recovered by Mich

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.11

Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the PnSt 38

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

McCarthy, J.J. pass complete to Loveland, Colston for 19 yards to the PENNST14, PENALTY MICHIGAN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST38, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35

2nd & 12Penalty+5 yds

McCarthy, J.J. pass incomplete to Loveland, Colston, PENALTY PENNST offside 5 yards to the PENNST30, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.32

J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 21 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Max Bredeson) to the PnSt 35

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the PnSt 13

2nd & 9Penalty-5 yds

MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 18

2nd & 14Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.33

J.J. McCarthy sacked by Coziah Izzard for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 23

3rd & 19Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the PnSt 19

4th & 15Field Goal Good+37 yds

Jake Moody 37 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.14

Drew Allar pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+11 yds

Allar, Drew pass incomplete to Lambert-Smith, KeAndre, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Green, Gemon) 11 yards to the PENNST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Hunter Nourzad) to the PnSt 43

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Drew Allar pass incomplete

3rd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the PnSt 47

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas Singleton

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Blake Corum run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 48

2nd & 11Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.16

J.J. McCarthy run for 21 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Corum, Blake rush for 16 yards to the PENNST11, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding (Schoonmaker, Luke) 10 yards to the PENNST37, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.76

Donovan Edwards run for 10 yds to the PnSt 27

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.44

Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 31

3rd & 14Rush+28 ydsPPA +3.21

Donovan Edwards run for 28 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Donovan Edwards 3 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PnSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 9 yds to the PnSt 49

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.40

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas Singleton

3rd & 1Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.52

Drew Allar pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 9 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 1 yd to the Mich 41

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Drew Allar pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III

3rd & 9Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.88

Drew Allar sacked by Michael Barrett and Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 7 yards to the Mich 48

4th & 16Penalty+5 yds

Allar, Drew pass sacked for loss of 0 yards to the MICHIGAN48 (Upshaw, Taylor), PENALTY MICHIGAN offside 5 yards to the MICHIGAN43, NO PLAY.

4th & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA -0.65

Drew Allar pass complete to Parker Washington for 10 yds to the Mich 33

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

C.J. Stokes run for 4 yds to the Mich 37

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

C.J. Stokes run for no gain to the Mich 37

3rd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.56

C.J. Stokes run for 12 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

C.J. Stokes run for 6 yds to the PnSt 45

Situational Analysis

Penn State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
20%
15 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play
52%
31 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
80%
10 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
71%
7 plays
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play