Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 8, 2022Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Wisconsin by 10

Home Win Probability

Northwestern 21%

Market (consensus)

Northwestern +10

Edge: Northwestern +10 (0.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 8, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
WisconsinWisconsin
72101442
NorthwesternNorthwestern
00077

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-140-210-280-357-42
NorthwesternWisconsin

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20WISNORWISNORWISNORWISNORWISNORWISNORNORWISNORWISNORWISNORWISNORMISS1166ydPUNT731ydTD998ydTO617ydTD357ydPUNT34ydPUNT517ydPUNT37ydTD666ydPUNT3-1ydTD761ydMISS1172ydTO862ydPUNT614ydTO640ydPUNT415ydDOWNS832ydTD437ydTD878ydTD1484ydEND620yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Wisconsin and Northwestern
StatisticWisconsinNorthwestern
Passing21-3022-41
Pass Yards322263
Rush Yards19379
Total Yards515342
Turnovers03
3rd Down10-143-13
Penalties6-552-20
Possession34:1625:44

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Wisconsin
passing
Graham Mertz
20/29, 299 YDS, 5 TD
rushing
Braelon Allen
23 CAR, 135 YDS
receiving
Chimere Dike
10 REC, 185 YDS, 3 TD
defense
Northwestern
passing
Ryan Hilinski
10/22, 147 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Brendan Sullivan
10 CAR, 33 YDS
receiving
Bryce Kirtz
2 REC, 66 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Adam Stage kickoff for 61 yds , Isaac Guerendo return for 13 yds to the Wisc 17

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 11 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 9 yds to the Wisc 37

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +2.09

Braelon Allen run for 33 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Nwest 28

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the Nwest 22

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Vinny Anthony run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Nwest 17

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Keontez Lewis

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Nate Van Zelst 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Ryan Hilinski run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.77

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 16 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Nwest 45

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WIS Offside (Johnson,Rodas) 5 yards from NU 45 to NU 50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Wisc 49

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Raymond Niro III

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.40

Braelon Allen run for 14 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 6 yds to the Wisc 22

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 11 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Devin O'Rourke) to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.94

Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 21 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Nwest 22

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Nwest 18

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.15

Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Graham Mertz pass complete to Skyler Bell for 15 yds for a TD, (Nate Van Zelst KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Thomas Gordon

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.06

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 11 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Nwest 44

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.73

Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42

3rd & 6Interception0 ydsPPA -0.83

Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Dean Engram

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 5 yds to the Wisc 48

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +5.55

Chimere Dike 52 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 2 yds to the Nwest 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Evan Hull

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 30

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.26

Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Chez Mellusi run for 8 yds to the Wisc 48

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.35

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Skyler Bell

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

4th & 3Punt+13 yds

Luke Akers punt for 52 yds , Dean Engram returns for 13 yds to the Wisc 34

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 34

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack Eschenbach

3rd & 10Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +4.23

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 43 yds to the Nwest 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Nwest 23

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Nwest 21

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +3.37

Chimere Dike 21 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NU False Start (Wiederkehr,Ethan) 5 yards from NU 24 to NU 19. NO PLAY.

2nd & 16Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Malik Washington

4th & 11Punt+7 yds

Luke Akers punt for 44 yds , Dean Engram returns for 7 yds to the Wisc 39

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 47

2nd & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 10 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Skyler Bell run for 7 yds to the Nwest 36

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Nwest 23

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.95

Chez Mellusi 23 Yd pass from Braelon Allen (Nate Van Zelst Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the Nwest 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.42

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +3.17

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 45 yds to the Wisc 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 9 yds to the Wisc 4

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Preston Bacon

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.37

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Wisc 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Marshall Lang

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

3rd & 3Field Goal Missed+21 yds

Jack Olsen 21 yd FG MISSED

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik Washington

3rd & 7Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.35

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.86

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 25 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Wisc 17

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Wisc 11

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.15

Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Wisc 13

4th & 3Interception0 ydsPPA -3.80

Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted

4th & 3Penalty+15 yds

WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wisc 20

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 27

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Wisc 29

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.96

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Graham Mertz pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 6 yds to the Wisc 39

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Markus Allen

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WIS Illegal Substitution 5 yards from WIS39 to WIS34. NO PLAY.

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack Eschenbach

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 15

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.93

Brendan Sullivan run for 15 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Jacob Gill for 5 yds to the Nwest 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.75

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the Wisc 45

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.60

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 6 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -2.10

Brendan Sullivan sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 45 Brendan Sullivan fumbled, recovered by Wisc James Thompson Jr. , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.86

Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Skyler Bell run for 6 yds to the Nwest 38

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Nwest 40

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Skyler Bell

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Andy Vujnovich punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Nwest 8

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY WIS Offside (Paez,Gio) 5 yards from NU 08 to NU 13. NO PLAY.

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.03

Andrew Clair run for 7 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Marshall Lang for 6 yds to the Nwest 26

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.49

Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Brendan Sullivan run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35

3rd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 2 yds to the Nwest 37

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Jacob Gill

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the Nwest 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.51

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 25 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Chimere Dike 6 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Gavin Lahm kickoff for 43 yds , Marshall Lang return for no gain to the Nwest 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Evan Hull for 10 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Brendan Sullivan pass incomplete to Anthony Tyus III

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.83

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 21 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +1.56

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 41 yds to the Wisc 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Brendan Sullivan run for 3 yds to the Wisc 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the Wisc 2

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the Wisc 1

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Olsen KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Adam Stage kickoff for 60 yds , Isaac Guerendo return for 11 yds to the Wisc 16

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Vinny Anthony run for 7 yds to the Wisc 23

2nd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 7 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the Wisc 37

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.56

Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 5 yds to the Wisc 49

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.02

Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 9 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Dean Engram

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the Nwest 38

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.67

Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 14 yds to the Nwest 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.47

Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Nwest 16

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Shotgun Guerendo,Isaac rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NU 08 (Johnson,Theran) PENALTY WIS Holding (Nelson,Jack) 10 yards from NU 13 to NU 23. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Graham Mertz pass complete to Dean Engram for 4 yds to the Nwest 19

2nd & 16Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.28

Markus Allen 19 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Nate Van Zelst Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Anthony Tyus III run for 7 yds to the Nwest 34

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.54

Anthony Tyus III run for 8 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Carl Richardson pass incomplete to Preston Bacon

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Carl Richardson pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 2 yds to the Nwest 45

Situational Analysis

Wisconsin

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
68%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
56%
9 plays
17%
6 plays
43%
7 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
83%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
4th

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
35%
26 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
50%
14 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
40%
5 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play