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← Back to GamesOct 1, 2022Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Penn State by 32.1

Home Win Probability

Penn State 97%

Market (consensus)

Penn State -25.5

Edge: Penn State -25.5 (6.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 1, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NorthwesternNorthwestern
00707
Penn StatePenn State
770317

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40147-014-017-7
Penn StateNorthwestern

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSPSNORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSNORPSPUNT35ydPUNT834ydPUNT34ydTO314ydPUNT35ydTO311ydTO3-1ydTD560ydPUNT30ydPUNT617ydTO941ydTD745ydPUNT531ydTO320ydDOWNS2-2ydEND21ydTO1242ydPUNT33ydPUNT36ydTD982ydFG754ydDOWNS1074ydPUNT521ydDOWNS45ydPUNT3-1ydPUNT411ydTO28ydDOWNS48ydEND1023yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern and Penn State
StatisticNorthwesternPenn State
Passing15-3710-20
Pass Yards210140
Rush Yards31220
Total Yards241360
Turnovers35
3rd Down4-164-15
Penalties2-107-55
Possession22:3237:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern
passing
Ryan Hilinski
15/37, 210 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Evan Hull
11 CAR, 45 YDS
receiving
Donny Navarro
4 REC, 55 YDS
defense
Xander Mueller
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
Penn State
passing
Sean Clifford
10/20, 140 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Nicholas Singleton
21 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Parker Washington
4 REC, 73 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 30

4th & 5Punt+59 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 49 yds, downed at the PENNST 21 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PnSt 12

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PnSt 15

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 9 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the PnSt 31

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.41

Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the PnSt 45

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.44

Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PnSt 45

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Barney Amor punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nwest 8

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 12

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the Nwest 16

3rd & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.39

Cam Porter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 12

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 42 yds, downed at the PnSt 46

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Nwest 47

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -2.23

Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the Nwest 40 Nicholas Singleton fumbled, forced by Garnett Hollis Jr., recovered by Nwest Xander Mueller

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryce Kirtz

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 38 yds, downed at the PnSt 17

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 20

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.88

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.14

Sean Clifford pass intercepted Bryce Gallagher return for no gain to the PnSt 42

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Malik Washington run for no gain to the PnSt 42

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Evan Hull run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 43

3rd & 11Pass Interception Return+44 ydsPPA -1.53

Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for 34 yds to the PnSt 9 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PnSt 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Keyvone Lee run for 10 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.35

Sean Clifford pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Nwest 20

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)

2nd & 5Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Gabriel Nwosu kickoff for 61 yds , Evan Hull return for 19 yds to the Nwest 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik Washington

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Raymond Niro III

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 36 yds, downed at the PnSt 41

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Keyvone Lee run for 10 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the Nwest 46

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 8 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone Lee

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Olumuyiwa Fashanu) to the Nwest 42

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Barney Amor punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nwest 4

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.27

Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 4

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.12

Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 4

3rd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.32

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 22 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 3 yds to the Nwest 29

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Nwest 35

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.27

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-5 ydsPPA -3.16

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Nick Tarburton

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Nwest 41

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36

4th & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.77

Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 24

1st & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA -0.46

Sean Clifford pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 11 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.33

Nicholas Singleton run for 11 yds to the Nwest 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik Washington

2nd & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +3.24

Evan Hull run for 29 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Evan Hull run for no gain to the PnSt 46

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 36 yds, downed at the PnSt 8

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PnSt 13

2nd & 5Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.26

Nicholas Singleton run for 19 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -1.48

Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 28 Nicholas Singleton fumbled, forced by Rod Heard II, recovered by Nwest Cameron Mitchell

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.78

Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 30

2nd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.86

Ryan Hilinski sacked by Nick Tarburton for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 35 Ryan Hilinski fumbled, forced by Nick Tarburton, recovered by PnSt Curtis Jacobs , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 37

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.89

Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 36

0th & 8End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.19

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the Nwest 41

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Sal Wormley) to the Nwest 46

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Kaytron Allen

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.29

Kaytron Allen run for 11 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the Nwest 33

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -3.66

Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the Nwest 33 Keyvone Lee fumbled, forced by Garnett Hollis Jr., recovered by Nwest Greyson Metz

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36

2nd & 7Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.25

Cam Porter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 31

3rd & 12Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.49

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 10 yds to the Nwest 41

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Punt+12 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds , Parker Washington returns for 12 yds to the PnSt 37

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Barney Amor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 9 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 27

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Cam Porter run for no gain to the Nwest 27

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.23

Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 6 yds to the Nwest 35

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik Washington

3rd & 4Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.79

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 18 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +4.66

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 47 yds for a TD, (Adam Stage KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +3.72

Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 43 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.23

Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.50

Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 19

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.76

Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 21

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Harrison Wallace III

4th & 14Field Goal Good+38 yds

Jake Pinegar 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.60

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 15 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the PnSt 40

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan Hull

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the PnSt 33

3rd & 8Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.74

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 24 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan Hull

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.22

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 1

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.21

Ryan Hilinski run for no gain to the PnSt 1

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Sean Clifford pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 7 yds to the PnSt 8

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.21

Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PnSt 22

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Barney Amor punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan Hull

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Malik Washington

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 36

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Sean Clifford pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Barney Amor punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Nwest 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.99

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 20 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-9 ydsPPA -0.69

Ryan Hilinski run for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 19 Ryan Hilinski fumbled, recovered by Nwest Ryan Hilinski

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 42

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PnSt 47

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -2.55

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line Kaytron Allen fumbled, forced by Bryce Gallagher, recovered by Nwest Jeremiah Lewis , return to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 42

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Ryan Hilinski run for no gain to the PnSt 42

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.71

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Marshall Lang

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PnSt 44

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Nwest 49

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.38

Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.41

Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.97

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 32

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 34

3rd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 35

Situational Analysis

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
29%
24 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
29%
14 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
25%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play

Penn State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
42%
33 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
38%
13 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
20%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
100%
1 play
0%
4 plays
4th
100%
3 plays