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← Back to GamesSep 24, 2022Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan State by 1.4

Home Win Probability

Michigan State 48%

Market (consensus)

Michigan State +3

Edge: Michigan State +3 (4.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 24, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MinnesotaMinnesota
14371034
Michigan StateMichigan State
00077

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-140-170-240-310-347-34
Michigan StateMinnesota

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINMSMINTD1075ydPUNT37ydTD977ydPUNT3-6ydFG1266ydDOWNS842ydTO334ydPUNT515ydEND834ydTO1270ydTD1290ydTO213ydTD628ydPUNT47ydFG1576ydTD875ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Minnesota and Michigan State
StatisticMinnesotaMichigan State
Passing23-2623-31
Pass Yards268202
Rush Yards24038
Total Yards508240
Turnovers13
3rd Down10-122-8
Penalties7-656-65
Possession42:3017:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Minnesota
passing
Tanner Morgan
23/26, 268 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Mohamed Ibrahim
22 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Mike Brown-Stephens
6 REC, 73 YDS
defense
Michigan State
passing
Payton Thorne
17/24, 132 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Jarek Broussard
6 CAR, 23 YDS
receiving
Cade McDonald
3 REC, 31 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 11 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.43

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 15 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 46

2nd & 15Rush+21 ydsPPA +3.04

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 21 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.26

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Clay Geary for 11 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the MchSt 17

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 20

3rd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.11

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 18 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the MchSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 32

4th & 3Punt+3 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds , Quentin Redding returns for 3 yds to the Minn 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.36

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 16 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 40

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.91

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the MchSt 47

2nd & 7Penalty+11 yds

MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dylan thrown to the MSU35. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on BRANTLEY, Charles enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the MSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Trey Potts run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32

2nd & 6Penalty-15 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 44

2nd & 18Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 6 yds to the MchSt 38

3rd & 12Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.45

Tanner Morgan run for 15 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 23 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.36

Payton Thorne sacked by Ryan Stapp for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 19

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.61

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 1 yd to the Minn 27

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 34

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.48

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 42

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.68

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.84

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 17 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.31

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 19 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Clay Geary for 1 yd to the MchSt 11

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 3 yds to the MchSt 8

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Tanner Morgan pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+26 yds

Matthew Trickett 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the MchSt 41

2nd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the MchSt 44

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.46

Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Minn 46

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Minn 46

4th & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -1.10

Payton Thorne pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.19

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 26 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.56

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 17 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 29

1st & 15Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-4 ydsPPA -3.84

Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 33 Mohamed Ibrahim fumbled, recovered by MchSt Ronald Williams

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jalen Berger run for 9 yds to the MchSt 42

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 3 yds to the MchSt 48

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 52 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, Illegal Block (Michael Brown-Stephens) to the Minn 12

1st & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.07

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 18

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 21

3rd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.56

Tanner Morgan run for 10 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.77

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN-STEPHENS, Michael thrown to the MSU44. PENALTY MIN Pass Interference on SPANN-FORD, Brevyn enforced 15 yards to the MIN35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 40

2nd & 20Penalty+15 yds

MORGAN, Tanner sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the MIN33 (WRIGHT, Brandon). PENALTY MSU Face mask on WRIGHT, Brandon enforced 15 yards from the MIN40 to the MSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Trey Potts for 1 yd to the MchSt 44

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 4 yds to the MchSt 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.97

Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 18 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Maliq Carr) to the Minn 45

2nd & 14Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Berger for 5 yds to the Minn 40

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.15

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds to the Minn 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Minn 21

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Minn 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the Minn 12

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Minn 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+1 ydsPPA -4.95

Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the Minn 10 Payton Thorne fumbled, recovered by Minn Justin Walley

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.46

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Trey Potts run for 2 yds to the Minn 23

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.56

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 13 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 10 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.04

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 15 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.07

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the MchSt 12

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.07

Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the MchSt 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.05

Payton Thorne pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

WILLIAMS, Bryce rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU21 (VANSUMEREN, Ben). PENALTY MIN Holding on CARROLL, Quinn enforced 10 yards from the MSU23 to the MSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.17

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 13 yds to the MchSt 20

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.28

Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Maverick Hansen) to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the MchSt 7

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 14 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the MchSt 45

2nd & 4Penalty-15 yds

MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jarrett Horst) to the MchSt 30

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Payton Thorne pass incomplete

3rd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.08

Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 37

4th & 12Penalty-5 yds

THORNE, Payton pass to the left complete for 13 yards to REED, Jayden caught at the MSU50 and advanced to the MSU50 (GOUSBY, Aidan;NUBIN, Tyler). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SAMAC, Nick enforced 5 yards from the MSU37 to the MSU32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the Minn 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Trey Potts run for 2 yds to the Minn 22

2nd & 8Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.70

Trey Potts run for 15 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Quinn Carroll) to the Minn 32

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Trey Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 37

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Trey Potts run for 8 yds to the Minn 45

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.90

Trey Potts run for 10 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41

3rd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Cole Kramer run for 11 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Trey Potts run for 12 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Trey Potts run for 7 yds to the MchSt 11

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.23

Cole Kramer run for 5 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Trey Potts run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 7

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Trey Potts run for 3 yds to the MchSt 4

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Trey Potts run for no gain to the MchSt 4

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Matthew Trickett 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Noah Kim pass complete to Cade McDonald for 8 yds to the MchSt 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Noah Kim pass complete to Cade McDonald for 8 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Noah Kim pass complete to Elijah Collins for 2 yds to the Minn 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Noah Kim pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Noah Kim run for 5 yds to the Minn 42

4th & 3Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.68

Noah Kim pass complete to Cade McDonald for 15 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+27 ydsPPA +2.74

Noah Kim pass complete to Germie Bernard for 27 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Minnesota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
53%
32 plays
75%
4 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
58%
12 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
60%
20 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play