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← Back to GamesSep 17, 2022Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ohio State by 20.8

Home Win Probability

Ohio State 89%

Market (consensus)

Ohio State -31

Edge: Toledo +31 (10.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 17, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
777021
Ohio StateOhio State
2814142177

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428425670847-014-721-728-1435-1442-1449-2163-2170-2177-21
Ohio StateToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OSTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTOLTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTOLOSTD882ydTD475ydTD675ydPUNT3-5ydTD559ydPUNT39ydTD771ydTD1175ydTD775ydPUNT417ydTD989ydEND23ydTO215ydTD448ydTD675ydPUNT636ydPUNT31ydTD439ydPUNT37ydTD1168ydPUNT35ydTD274ydTO620ydTD345ydPUNT69ydEND619yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Ohio State
StatisticToledoOhio State
Passing12-2327-34
Pass Yards183482
Rush Yards124281
Total Yards307763
Turnovers20
3rd Down4-1311-13
Penalties4-231-5
Possession24:3435:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Dequan Finn
10/19, 153 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Dequan Finn
7 CAR, 70 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Thomas Zsiros
1 REC, 50 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Ohio State
passing
C.J. Stroud
22/27, 367 YDS, 5 TD
rushing
Dallan Hayden
17 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Emeka Egbuka
7 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 64 yds , Chip Trayanum return for 17 yds to the OhSt 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 8 yds to the OhSt 26

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OhSt 26

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.95

TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 10 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 7 yds to the OhSt 47

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.28

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 38 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

TreVeyon Henderson 7 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 7 yds to the Toled 32

2nd & 3Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.63

Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +4.96

Thomas Zsiros 50 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Thomas Cluckey Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.52

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 17 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.88

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 10 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Toled 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.76

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 34 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the Toled 8

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.55

Marvin Harrison Jr. 8 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 23

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 20

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal Turner

4th & 15Punt+10 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 49 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for 10 yds to the OhSt 41

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY TOL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting OSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.18

Miyan Williams run for 14 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.01

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 42 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Miyan Williams run for no gain to the Toled 3

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade Stover

3rd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.62

Emeka Egbuka 3 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 27

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Peny Boone run for no gain to the Toled 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 29

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.93

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.00

Miyan Williams run for 19 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.21

Miyan Williams run for 10 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.12

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Cade Stover for 11 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the Toled 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Julian Fleming 5 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 2 yds to the Toled 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 2 yds to the Toled 27

2nd & 8Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.68

Dequan Finn sacked by Jack Sawyer for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 23

3rd & 12Rush+23 ydsPPA +3.03

Dequan Finn run for 23 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.77

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 10 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds to the OhSt 39

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Thomas Zsiros

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

4th & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.65

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 12 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the OhSt 23

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Micah Kelly run for no gain to the OhSt 23

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.31

Dequan Finn 23 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 12 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.08

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 28 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the Toled 33

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

C.J. Stroud run for 5 yds to the Toled 28

3rd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.70

Miyan Williams run for 12 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Miyan Williams run for 9 yds to the Toled 7

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +1.95

Marvin Harrison Jr. 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 10 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 37

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the Toled 42

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 11

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OhSt 11

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Dallan Hayden run for 9 yds to the OhSt 20

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.13

Dallan Hayden run for 9 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.66

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 7 yds to the OhSt 36

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

C.J. Stroud run for 4 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.62

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 21 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.38

Dallan Hayden run for 11 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Dallan Hayden run for 5 yds to the Toled 23

2nd & 5Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Stroud,C.J. pass complete short right to Hayden,Dallan for 0 yards to the TOL23, out of bounds at TOL23 PENALTY TOL Holding (Johnson,Dyontae) 10 yards from TOL23 to TOL13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the Toled 11

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.71

Julian Fleming 11 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 29

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 28

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 28

0th & 6End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Peny Boone run for 15 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.24

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.24

Dequan Finn pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+45 ydsPPA +2.22

Dallan Hayden run for 45 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the Toled 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Dallan Hayden run for 1 yd to the Toled 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Mitch Rossi 1 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 16 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.15

Peny Boone run for 10 yds to the OhSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Peny Boone run for no gain to the OhSt 40

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal Turner

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+40 ydsPPA +5.06

Jerjuan Newton 40 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Thomas Cluckey Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OhSt 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Emeka Egbuka

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY OSU False Start (Wypler,Luke) 5 yards from OSU32 to OSU27. NO PLAY.

3rd & 8Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.47

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 27 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the Toled 42

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Cade Stover

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the Toled 39

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 2

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Jesse Mirco punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 2

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY TOL False Start (Newton,Jerjuan) 1 yard from TOL02 to TOL01. NO PLAY.

1st & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.17

Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Toled 2

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan Newton

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.04

Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 1 yd to the Toled 3

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +0.63

C.J. Stroud pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 29 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the Toled 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Xavier Johnson

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.88

Emeka Egbuka 7 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Micah Kelly run for 9 yds to the Toled 34

2nd & 1Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.64

Dequan Finn sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Mikel Barkley

4th & 3Punt+14 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 50 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 14 yds to the OhSt 32

4th & 3Punt+14 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 50 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 14 yds to the OhSt 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Dallan Hayden run for 4 yds to the OhSt 36

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Dallan Hayden run for 3 yds to the OhSt 39

3rd & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.73

Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 19 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Dallan Hayden run for 7 yds to the Toled 35

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.10

Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 9 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Gee Scott Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the Toled 28

3rd & 12Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.98

Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 13 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Judge Culpepper) to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Penalty+4 yds

No Huddle Hayden,Dallan rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TOL02 (Ragin,D'Andre) PENALTY TOL Illegal Substitution 4 yards from TOL07 to TOL03. NO PLAY.

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Dallan Hayden run for 2 yds to the Toled 1

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Xavier Johnson

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Dallan Hayden 1 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 29

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OhSt 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Kyle McCord pass complete to Kyion Grayes for 2 yds to the OhSt 28

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +6.48

Kyle McCord pass complete to Jayden Ballard for 72 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.87

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Adam Beale for 24 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 49

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Adam Beale for 6 yds to the OhSt 44

4th & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)-11 ydsPPA -1.52

Tucker Gleason sacked by Javontae Jean-Baptiste for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 45 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by OhSt Palaie Gaoteote IV , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

TC Caffey run for 1 yd to the Toled 44

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

TC Caffey run for 5 yds to the Toled 49

3rd & 14Rushing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +6.28

T. Caffey run for 49 yds for a TD, (N. Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the Toled 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Willie Shaw III run for 1 yd to the Toled 25

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.98

Tucker Gleason run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the Toled 36

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.41

Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the Toled 34

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel Barkley

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 32 yds

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jonathon Batzke punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Cayden Saunders run for 1 yd to the OhSt 35

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Cayden Saunders run for 5 yds to the OhSt 40

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

TC Caffey run for 3 yds to the OhSt 43

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +2.00

Devin Brown run for 1 yd to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

TC Caffey run for 4 yds to the OhSt 48

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

TC Caffey run for 5 yds to the Toled 47

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

TC Caffey run for 5 yds to the Toled 47

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
33%
9 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Ohio State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
3 plays
68%
38 plays
2nd
50%
10 plays
50%
6 plays
75%
8 plays
3rd
100%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play