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← Back to GamesSep 10, 2022Week 2

House Prediction

Model Margin

Northwestern by 7.5

Home Win Probability

Northwestern 62%

Market (consensus)

Northwestern -10

Edge: Duke +10 (2.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 10, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
DukeDuke
14701031
NorthwesternNorthwestern
0106723

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-147-2814-2122-2823-3530-31
NorthwesternDuke

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKDUKDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKNORDUKPUNT414ydTD677ydMISS1155ydTD580ydPUNT32ydTD590ydTD875ydPUNT3-5ydDOWNS838ydPUNT33ydFG1357ydEND1-1ydTO959ydMISS534ydTD879ydTD877ydDOWNS1037ydPUNT518ydTD1080ydPUNT37ydTO38ydFG733ydTO775ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Duke and Northwestern
StatisticDukeNorthwestern
Passing13-2436-60
Pass Yards240435
Rush Yards22176
Total Yards461511
Turnovers13
3rd Down4-105-17
Penalties7-854-51
Possession25:1234:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Duke
passing
Riley Leonard
13/24, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jordan Waters
10 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jalon Calhoun
6 REC, 108 YDS
defense
Northwestern
passing
Ryan Hilinski
36/60, 435 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Evan Hull
17 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Evan Hull
14 REC, 213 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Evan Hull run for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 6 yds to the Nwest 39

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Duke 28

2nd & 5Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.93

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 18 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the Nwest 48

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.67

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 9 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.57

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 23 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST down

0th & 0Rushing Touchdown+16 yds

Jaylen Coleman 16 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.54

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 17 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Duke 46

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.63

Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the Duke 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.63

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 14 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Duke 20

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Malik Washington) to the Duke 25

2nd & 13Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.09

Evan Hull run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 32

3rd & 20Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.46

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 12 yds to the Duke 20

4th & 8Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Adam Stage 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 24

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Jordan Waters run for 9 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the Duke 38

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaheem Joseph) to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST down

0th & 0Rushing Touchdown+42 yds

Jordan Waters 42 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34

3rd & 1Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.13

Cam Porter run for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.37

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the Duke 19

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

DUKE Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Coleman) to the Duke 14

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Nwest 3

0th & 0Rushing Touchdown+3 yds

Jordan Waters 3 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 18 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.34

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 25 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Evan Hull run for 6 yds to the Duke 24

2nd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.46

Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 21

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

3rd & 11Penalty0 yds

HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for GORDON, Thomas thrown to the DUK6. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on JOINER, Darius enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the DUK6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

0th & 0Rushing Touchdown+6 yds

Evan Hull 6 Yd Run (Adam Stage Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.61

Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for no gain to the Duke 22

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Duke 25

3rd & 7Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.36

Riley Leonard sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 17

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

3rd & 8Penalty+15 yds

HILINSKI, Ryan pass up the middle incomplete intended for PORTER, Cam thrown to the NWU38; QB hurried by HEYWARD, Shaka. PENALTY DUK Roughing the Passer on HEYWARD, Shaka enforced 15 yards from the NWU32 to the NWU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.12

Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 46

3rd & 11Penalty+15 yds

HILINSKI, Ryan pass up the middle incomplete intended for LANG, Marshall broken up by RIVERS, Chandler at the DUK42. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on RIVERS, Chandler enforced 15 yards to the DUK39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Evan Hull run for 5 yds to the Duke 34

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Duke 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 3 yds to the Duke 35

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 30

2nd & 7Penalty-16 yds

HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the left incomplete intended for NAVARRO, Donny broken up by RIVERS, Chandler at the NWU36. PENALTY NWU Face mask on ROWLEY, Conrad enforced 16 yards from the NWU30 to the NWU14 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 23Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.58

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 26 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.41

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 15 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Duke 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 10 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Andrew Clair run for no gain to the Duke 32

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.74

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 16 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

run for no gain to the Duke 16

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for no gain to the Duke 16

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

0th & 0Field Goal Good+34 yds

Adam Stage 34 Yd Field Goal

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

WATERS, Jordan rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the DUK35 (JOSEPH, Jaheem), out of bounds. PENALTY DUK Face mask on DALMOLIN, Nicky enforced 15 yards from the DUK32 to the DUK17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 25Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.12

Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the Duke 27

3rd & 15Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.53

Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 25 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Jordan Waters run for 11 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the Nwest 29

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaylen Coleman run for 9 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Jordan Moore run for 11 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Adetomiwa Adebawore) to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Nwest 24

2nd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 3 yds to the Nwest 21

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.63

Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the Nwest 21

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+38 yds

Charlie Ham 38 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.96

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 17 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty+15 yds

HILINSKI, Ryan pass to the right incomplete intended for NAVARRO, Donny broken up by PICKETT, Joshua at the DUK44. PENALTY DUK Pass Interference on PICKETT, Joshua enforced 15 yards to the DUK46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Duke 43

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Duke 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 4 yds to the Duke 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 4 yds to the Duke 39

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

0th & 0Passing Touchdown+39 yds

Evan Hull 39 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 6 yds to the Duke 29

3rd & 4Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +4.08

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 51 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST down

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.31

Jaylen Coleman run for 8 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Nwest 8

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

0th & 0Passing Touchdown+8 yds

Jordan Moore 8 Yd pass from Riley Leonard (Charlie Ham Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.46

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 15 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Evan Hull run for 9 yds to the Duke 46

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.28

Evan Hull run for no gain to the Duke 46

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.92

Ryan Hilinski run for 2 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Andrew Clair for 6 yds to the Duke 38

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.20

Jordan Moore run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Nwest 47

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the Nwest 44

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 7 yds to the Nwest 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.43

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.56

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 35 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 4 yds to the Duke 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 4 yds to the Duke 28

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.91

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

0th & 0Passing Touchdown+14 yds

Donny Navarro III 14 Yd pass from Ryan Hilinski (Adam Stage Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Duke 28

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Duke 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt+5 yds

Porter Wilson punt for 48 yds , Donny Navarro III returns for 5 yds to the Nwest 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 8 yds to the Nwest 33

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.48

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 8 yds to the Nwest 33

3rd & 2Interception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted

3rd & 2Interception0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32

2nd & 8Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.72

Jaylen Coleman run for 16 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Jaylen Coleman run for 11 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Nwest 2

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Nwest 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the Nwest 1

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the Nwest 1

0th & 0Field Goal Good+18 yds

Charlie Ham 18 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the Nwest 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 16 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.46

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 17 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

DUKE Penalty, Offsides (R.J. Oben) to the Duke 16

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 4 yds to the Duke 12

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+12 ydsPPA -4.41

Evan Hull run for 12 yds Evan Hull fumbled, recovered by Duke Brandon Johnson

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
3 plays
40%
20 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
45%
11 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
35 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
47%
19 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
29%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play