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← Back to GamesNov 19, 2022Week 12
TCUTCU
29
-Final
28
BaylorBaylor
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

TCU by 9

Home Win Probability

Baylor 28%

Market (consensus)

Baylor +2

Edge: TCU -2 (7.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 19, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TCUTCU
776929
BaylorBaylor
7701428

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-714-1421-2028-2028-2628-29
BaylorTCU

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUBAYTCUTD1176ydPUNT35ydMISS845ydTD772ydTD975ydTD590ydDOWNS1137ydPUNT524ydTO1176ydEND1-2ydPUNT826ydPUNT3-3ydTO415ydPUNT39ydTD351ydTD1077ydTO518ydTD584ydPUNT31ydPUNT37ydTD1190ydPUNT38ydEND945yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing TCU and Baylor
StatisticTCUBaylor
Passing24-3621-30
Pass Yards327269
Rush Yards115232
Total Yards442501
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-106-14
Penalties3-353-14
Possession26:0233:58

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

TCU
passing
Max Duggan
24/35, 327 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Max Duggan
8 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Taye Barber
5 REC, 108 YDS
defense
Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
21/30, 269 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Craig Williams
19 CAR, 112 YDS
receiving
Monaray Baldwin
6 REC, 123 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 59 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 18 yds to the Bayl 24

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.91

Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.71

Craig Williams run for 19 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 19

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TCU 16

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Craig Williams run for no gain to the TCU 16

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.62

Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Monaray Baldwin run for 4 yds to the TCU 10

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.57

Qualan Jones run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the TCU 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 27

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.39

Richard Reese run for 27 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Monaray Baldwin run for 3 yds to the TCU 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.98

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Qualan Jones run for no gain to the TCU 23

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Mose Jeffery) to the TCU 28

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

4th & 15Field Goal Missed+46 yds

John Mayers 46 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Kendre Miller run for no gain to the TCU 28

2nd & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.75

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 39 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.24

Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 10 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18

2nd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 10 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 1 yd to the Bayl 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Max Duggan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 20

2nd & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Monaray Baldwin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +4.24

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 42 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.75

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the TCU 26

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.41

Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the TCU 16

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.51

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 17

3rd & 6Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.86

Qualan Jones run for 15 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Kelsey Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds , Emari Demercado return for 20 yds to the BAYLOR 45 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Geor'Quarius Spivey) to the TCU 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+77 ydsPPA +4.25

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 77 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6

3rd & 3Penalty+4 yds

Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Milton, Mark) 4 yards to the BAYLOR2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.

1st & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.85

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for no gain to the Bayl 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 24 yds to the Bayl 24

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 33

2nd & 1Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.86

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 29

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33

4th & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.69

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dillon Doyle for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42

3rd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.45

Craig Williams run for 13 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.99

Blake Shapen sacked by Johnny Hodges and Dylan Horton for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 45

2nd & 20Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 4 yds to the Bayl 49

3rd & 16Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.00

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 15 yds to the TCU 36

4th & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -2.44

Craig Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 39

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.93

Kendre Miller run for 10 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Geor'Quarius Spivey

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 24 yds, downed at the Bayl 13

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 22

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.01

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 17 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

3rd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.04

Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 13 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.50

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the TCU 19

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA -0.27

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 8 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.48

Blake Shapen pass intercepted, touchback. Bud Clark return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 18

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye Barber

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 13 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.61

Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 7 yds to the TCU 47

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 16

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.62

Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 13

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Shapen pass incomplete

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

4th & 13Punt+6 yds

Issac Power punt for 48 yds , Taye Barber returns for 6 yds to the TCU 19 TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Bud Clark) to the TCU 30

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.86

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for no gain to the TCU 30

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.80

Kendre Miller run for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 5 yds to the TCU 45

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.35

Max Duggan pass intercepted Devin Neal return for no gain to the Bayl 10

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 16

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.53

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 15

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 4 yds to the Bayl 19

4th & 1Punt+12 yds

Issac Power punt for 44 yds , Taye Barber returns for 12 yds to the TCU 49

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Bayl 46

2nd & 5Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.10

Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 20 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 55 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 13 yds to the Bayl 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 10 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 40

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.55

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Blake Shapen run for 9 yds to the TCU 45

2nd & 1Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.28

Craig Williams run for 20 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 22

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TCU 12

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Richard Reese run for no gain to the TCU 12

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.99

Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.97

Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 10 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 46

2nd & 9Penalty-10 yds

Duggan, Max rush for 2 yards to the TCU48, PENALTY TCU holding (Lanz, John) 10 yards to the TCU36, NO PLAY.

2nd & 19Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 43

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Max Duggan pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds , Monaray Baldwin returns for no gain to the Bayl 16 Monaray Baldwin fumbled, recovered by Bayl Monaray Baldwin

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.65

Craig Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 12

2nd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 3 yds to the Bayl 15

3rd & 11Pass Reception+74 ydsPPA +4.76

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 74 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair Conwright

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Max Duggan pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 33

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Taye Barber at the TCU 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 5 yds to the TCU 15

2nd & 5Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.67

Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 22 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 6 yds to the TCU 43

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 46

3rd & 1Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.20

Max Duggan run for 21 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Max Duggan run for no gain to the Bayl 33

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair Conwright

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.80

Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 15 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 7 yds to the Bayl 11

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Emari Demercado run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 61 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 14 yds to the Bayl 18

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.41

Qualan Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 18

3rd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.16

Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the Bayl 26

4th & 2Punt+3 yds

Issac Power punt for 46 yds , Taye Barber returns for 3 yds to the TCU 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Max Duggan pass incomplete to Emari Demercado

2nd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.66

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 9 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Max Duggan run for no gain to the Bayl 41

3rd & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.09

Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

TEAM pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24

4th & 5Field Goal Good+40 yds

Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD

Situational Analysis

TCU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
48%
29 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
46%
13 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
3 plays
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
53%
32 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
38%
8 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
67%
3 plays