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← Back to GamesNov 13, 2022Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Baylor by 6.9

Home Win Probability

Baylor 63%

Market (consensus)

Baylor -2.5

Edge: Baylor -2.5 (4.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 13, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Kansas StateKansas State
0177731
BaylorBaylor
03003

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-103-173-24
BaylorKansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KSBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSBAYBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSBAYKSDOWNS1336ydTO944ydTD1297ydPUNT614ydFG1247ydPUNT34ydTD766ydFG1156ydDOWNS739ydPUNT33ydPUNT831ydTD1280ydDOWNS48ydTD520ydDOWNS755ydPUNT942ydTO740ydEND730yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kansas State and Baylor
StatisticKansas StateBaylor
Passing26-3522-38
Pass Yards221203
Rush Yards184103
Total Yards405306
Turnovers02
3rd Down8-134-12
Penalties4-236-51
Possession37:3722:23

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kansas State
passing
Will Howard
19/27, 196 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Deuce Vaughn
25 CAR, 106 YDS
receiving
Ben Sinnott
7 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
22/38, 203 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Richard Reese
9 CAR, 54 YDS
receiving
Josh Cameron
6 REC, 83 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 4 yds to the KanSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 34

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.54

Deuce Vaughn run for 8 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 2 yds to the KanSt 44

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.56

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 8 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 1 yd to the Bayl 47

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39

4th & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +1.84

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete to Phillip Brooks

4th & 6Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.16

Adrian Martinez sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 39

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 46

2nd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.31

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the KanSt 46

2nd & 6Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.11

Richard Reese run for 14 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 8 yds to the KanSt 24

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.25

Qualan Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the KanSt 17

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben Sims

3rd & 9Interception+3 ydsPPA -3.74

Blake Shapen pass intercepted KANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Josh Hayes) to the KanSt 3

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Deuce Vaughn run for 6 yds to the KanSt 9

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.12

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 5 yds to the KanSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 21

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 2 yds to the KanSt 23

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.50

Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KanSt 29

2nd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.30

Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 11 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Deuce Vaughn run for 4 yds to the KanSt 44

2nd & 6Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.83

Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.54

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 23 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Bayl 15

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.88

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)

1st & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.07

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the Bayl 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.71

Craig Williams run for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.68

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones

3rd & 11Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.36

Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for no gain to the Bayl 39

4th & 11Punt+13 yds

Issac Power punt for 34 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for 13 yds to the KanSt 40

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 45

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.17

Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben Sinnott

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.46

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 12 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds to the Bayl 36

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.97

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 6 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 6 yds to the Bayl 24

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY KSU False Start 5 yards from BU24 to BU29. NO PLAY.

2nd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.70

Phillip Brooks run for 16 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben Sinnott

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Bayl 14

3rd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.43

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 1 yd to the Bayl 13

4th & 10Field Goal Good+31 yds

Ty Zentner 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 3 yds to the Bayl 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 37 yds , Phillip Brooks returns for no gain to the KanSt 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.72

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Deuce Vaughn run for 10 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.33

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 11 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip Brooks

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

DJ Giddens run for no gain to the Bayl 15

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY KSU False Start (Panzer,Hadley) 5 yards from BU15 to BU20. NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.27

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 20 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones

1st & 20Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 5 yds to the Bayl 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the Bayl 31

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

No Huddle-Shotgun Shapen,Blake pass incomplete short right to Cameron,Josh PENALTY KSU Holding (Brents,Julius) 10 yards from BU36 to BU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 16 yds to the KanSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Qualan Jones run for 6 yds to the KanSt 32

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.88

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the KanSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Blake Shapen run for no gain to the KanSt 27

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the KanSt 19

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron

4th & 2Field Goal Good+37 yds

John Mayers 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 2End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Richard Reese run for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the Bayl 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 25 yds to the KanSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 20Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 7 yds to the KanSt 39

3rd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the KanSt 36

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.31

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Will Howard pass incomplete to Ben Sinnott

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce Vaughn

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ty Zentner punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 13

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 20

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.22

Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.12

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.16

Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for no gain to the Bayl 43

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 44

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 56 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 1 yd to the KanSt 21

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Will Howard run for 8 yds to the KanSt 29

3rd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.06

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 5 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 39

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.13

Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 8 yds to the KanSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Will Howard pass incomplete to Kade Warner

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36

2nd & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.34

Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 17 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the Bayl 19

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

DJ Giddens run for no gain to the Bayl 19

3rd & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.41

Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 19 yds for a TD, (Ty Zentner KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+6 yds

Ty Zentner kickoff for 59 yds , Jordan Nabors return for 6 yds to the Bayl 12

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

3rd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.05

Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Bayl 19

4th & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA +0.20

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 1 yd to the Bayl 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Will Howard pass incomplete to Phillip Brooks

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the Bayl 1

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 24 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the KanSt 44

2nd & 3Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.64

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 20 yds to the KanSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the KanSt 20

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.19

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 5 yds to the KanSt 25

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.78

Deuce Vaughn run for 7 yds to the KanSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 2 yds to the KanSt 36

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.07

DJ Giddens run for 7 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.28

DJ Giddens run for 17 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Will Howard pass incomplete to Deuce Vaughn

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38

4th & 8Penalty0 yds

KANSAS ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Josh Hayes) declined

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ty Zentner punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 6 yds to the Bayl 21

2nd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.94

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 12 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.02

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 11 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.53

Blake Shapen pass intercepted

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.53

Blake Shapen pass intercepted

2nd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.53

Blake Shapen pass intercepted

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY KSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting BU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 24

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 21

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 10 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the KanSt 33

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.51

DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the KanSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the KanSt 43

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.58

DJ Giddens run for 8 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Kansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
36%
33 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
86%
7 plays
53%
15 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
23 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
27%
11 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play