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← Back to GamesOct 23, 2022Week 8
Kansas StateKansas State
28
-Final
38
TCUTCU
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

TCU by 10.6

Home Win Probability

TCU 74%

Market (consensus)

TCU -3.5

Edge: TCU -3.5 (7.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 23, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Kansas StateKansas State
7210028
TCUTCU
10714738

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-710-1410-2824-2831-2838-28
TCUKansas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20KSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUKSTCUPUNT426ydTD683ydTD474ydFG1148ydTD1075ydPUNT513ydTD455ydPUNT32ydTD468ydDOWNS729ydPUNT31ydTD1091ydEND1-1ydTD1377ydMISS839ydTD474ydTO20ydDOWNS59ydDOWNS49ydTD430ydMISS1034ydPUNT841ydTO10ydEND78yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kansas State and TCU
StatisticKansas StateTCU
Passing14-2317-26
Pass Yards232280
Rush Yards158215
Total Yards390495
Turnovers20
3rd Down3-910-19
Penalties4-353-30
Possession21:5538:05

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kansas State
passing
Will Howard
13/20, 225 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Deuce Vaughn
12 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Malik Knowles
4 REC, 69 YDS
defense
TCU
passing
Max Duggan
17/26, 280 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Kendre Miller
29 CAR, 153 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Quentin Johnston
4 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Adrian Martinez run for 19 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Adrian Martinez pass complete to Malik Knowles for 7 yds to the TCU 49

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.27

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the TCU 49

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Adrian Martinez pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ty Zentner punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 17

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the TCU 26

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Kendre Miller run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 25

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.07

Max Duggan run for 6 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 32

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 35

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+65 ydsPPA +6.59

Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 65 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)

3rd & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Knowles return for 26 yds to the KanSt 26

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.25

Will Howard run for 14 yds to the KanSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the KanSt 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.16

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 28 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 28 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Ty Zentner kickoff for 63 yds , Emari Demercado return for 25 yds to the TCU 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Max Duggan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 31

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.11

Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 10 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Max Duggan sacked by Daniel Green for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 40

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 43

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.89

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 13 yds to the KanSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.71

Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 19 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Emari Demercado run for no gain to the KanSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Max Duggan pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.88

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for no gain to the KanSt 25

4th & 10Field Goal Good+43 yds

Griffin Kell 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Will Howard pass complete to Kade Warner for 12 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

DJ Giddens run for 1 yd to the KanSt 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.62

Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 25 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Will Howard run for 1 yd to the TCU 31

2nd & 9Fumble Recovery (Own)-2 ydsPPA -1.18

DJ Giddens run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 33 DJ Giddens fumbled, recovered by KanSt Ben Sinnott

3rd & 11Penalty-5 yds

KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 38

3rd & 16Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +4.64

Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for 37 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Will Howard run for no gain to the TCU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Will Howard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 31

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.28

Kendre Miller run for 12 yds to the TCU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.70

Max Duggan sacked by Nate Matlack for a loss of 13 yards to the TCU 30

2nd & 23Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the TCU 35

3rd & 18Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.07

Max Duggan pass complete to Emani Bailey for 3 yds to the TCU 38

4th & 15Punt+17 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KANSASST 30 TCU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the KanSt 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.49

Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 26 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.90

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 20 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Will Howard pass complete to Sammy Wheeler for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Max Duggan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the TCU 27

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Max Duggan pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 41 yds, downed at the KanSt 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.17

Will Howard run for 13 yds to the KanSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Kade Warner run for 8 yds to the TCU 47

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +3.33

Deuce Vaughn run for 47 yds for a TD, (Chris Tennant KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 43

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.10

Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Kendre Miller run for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 45

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Max Duggan pass incomplete

3rd & 14Fumble Recovery (Own)+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the KanSt 46 Emani Bailey fumbled, recovered by TCU Steve Avila

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Max Duggan pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.16

Will Howard pass complete to Malik Knowles for no gain to the KanSt 46

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Will Howard run for no gain to the KanSt 46

3rd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Will Howard run for 1 yd to the KanSt 47

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Ty Zentner punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 9

1st & 10Rush+48 ydsPPA +3.47

Kendre Miller run for 48 yds to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the KanSt 39

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Max Duggan pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.78

Max Duggan pass complete to Geor'Quarius Spivey for 16 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Max Duggan pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the KanSt 19

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.63

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 9 yds to the KanSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 9

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 4

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 4 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)

3rd & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 44 yds , Phillip Brooks return for 7 yds to the KanSt 28

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.91

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 27

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+10 yds

Ty Zentner kickoff for 52 yds , Derius Davis return for 10 yds to the TCU 23

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the TCU 28

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.97

Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +2.21

Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 30 yds to the KanSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the KanSt 33

2nd & 9Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.51

Max Duggan sacked by Gavin Forsha for a loss of 8 yards to the KanSt 41

3rd & 17Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.28

Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 18 yds to the KanSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 18

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 15

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.21

Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the KanSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the KanSt 8

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the KanSt 4

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the KanSt 2

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.80

Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.63

Deuce Vaughn run for 18 yds to the TCU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TCU 45

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

KANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Deuce Vaughn run for 2 yds to the TCU 48

3rd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.98

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 14 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Will Howard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the TCU 30

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Will Howard run for 4 yds to the TCU 26

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Chris Tennant 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.73

Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for no gain to the TCU 26

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.79

Emari Demercado run for 12 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 45

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +4.24

Quentin Johnston 55 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick)

2nd & 2Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Knowles return for 27 yds to the KanSt 27

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 27

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -0.30

Jake Rubley pass intercepted Bud Clark return for 5 yds to the KanSt 30

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Max Duggan run for 14 yds to the KanSt 16 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the KanSt 26

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 25

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the KanSt 23

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the KanSt 21

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.59

Max Duggan run for no gain to the KanSt 21

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Deuce Vaughn run for 1 yd to the KanSt 22

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Deuce Vaughn run for 5 yds to the KanSt 27

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Deuce Vaughn run for 3 yds to the KanSt 30

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Jake Rubley run for no gain to the KanSt 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.39

Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 11 yds to the KanSt 19 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ekow Boye-Doe) to the KanSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the KanSt 4

2nd & 0Penalty-5 yds

TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the KanSt 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Max Duggan pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.01

Kendre Miller run for 9 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK)

3rd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+41 yds

Luke Laminack kickoff for 62 yds , Phillip Brooks return for 41 yds to the KanSt 44 Phillip Brooks fumbled, recovered by KanSt Phillip Brooks

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Deuce Vaughn run for no gain to the KanSt 44

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.25

Will Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the KanSt 41

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Will Howard pass incomplete

4th & 13Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +4.07

Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 22 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 3 yds to the TCU 34

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.62

Kade Warner run for 11 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Will Howard pass complete to Deuce Vaughn for 1 yd to the TCU 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Will Howard pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Will Howard pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+40 yds

Chris Tennant 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 28

2nd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.45

Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.17

Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 10 yds to the KanSt 42 for a 1ST down KANSAS ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the KanSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the KanSt 38

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the KanSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 30

2nd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.77

Max Duggan sacked by Robert Hentz II for a loss of 10 yards to the KanSt 40

3rd & 19Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 3 yds to the KanSt 37

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Jordy Sandy punt for 37 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.61

Will Howard pass intercepted Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson return for no gain to the KanSt 36

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the KanSt 33

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the KanSt 31

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the KanSt 30

4th & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.70

Max Duggan run for 5 yds to the KanSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 26

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 27

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the KanSt 28

Situational Analysis

Kansas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
38%
24 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
45%
11 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

TCU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
44%
32 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
63%
8 plays
17%
12 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
83%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays