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← Back to GamesSep 24, 2022Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Iowa State by 3.6

Home Win Probability

Iowa State 60%

Market (consensus)

Iowa State -2.5

Edge: Iowa State -2.5 (1.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 24, 2022

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BaylorBaylor
7107731
Iowa StateIowa State
7701024

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-77-107-1714-1714-2421-3124-31
Iowa StateBaylor

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYISBAYTD1277ydTD1275ydFG1168ydPUNT37ydTD970ydPUNT37ydPUNT37ydTD863ydEND17ydTO21ydDOWNS46ydPUNT32ydTD1093ydPUNT69ydPUNT43ydTO1040ydTD464ydTD775ydPUNT928ydFG1071ydEND2-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Baylor and Iowa State
StatisticBaylorIowa State
Passing19-2623-36
Pass Yards238284
Rush Yards12366
Total Yards361350
Turnovers02
3rd Down5-138-15
Penalties3-308-78
Possession34:3925:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Baylor
passing
Blake Shapen
19/26, 238 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Richard Reese
21 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Gavin Holmes
3 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Iowa State
passing
Hunter Dekkers
23/36, 284 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jirehl Brock
14 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaylin Noel
7 REC, 120 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.38

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben Sims

2nd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.71

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the IowSt 39 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

IOWA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the IowSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 1 yd to the IowSt 30

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 28

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Shapen run for 4 yds to the IowSt 24

4th & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.18

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Fleeks for 4 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the IowSt 11

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.53

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 12

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +3.10

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the IowSt 33

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Jirehl Brock run for 4 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jirehl Brock run for no gain to the IowSt 37

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.01

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 46

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.34

Jirehl Brock run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Jirehl Brock run for 9 yds to the Bayl 29

2nd & 1Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.36

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 28 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Jirehl Brock run for no gain to the Bayl 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jirehl Brock run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jared Rus

4th & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.85

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 29

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 35

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.89

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 4 yds to the Bayl 40

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.21

Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +1.99

Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 40 yds to the IowSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.34

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 11

2nd & 11Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the IowSt 8

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 yds

John Mayers 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Cartevious Norton run for 1 yd to the IowSt 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 28

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jirehl Brock

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tyler Perkins punt for 42 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for no gain to the Bayl 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +2.76

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 36 yds to the IowSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 35

2nd & 11Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Shapen pass complete to Seth Jones for 4 yds to the IowSt 31

3rd & 7Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.34

Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the IowSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the IowSt 8

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.90

Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the IowSt 6 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Face Mask (3 yards) (Will McDonald IV) to the IowSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the IowSt 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Blake Shapen pass complete to Dillon Doyle for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Hunter Dekkers sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.50

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 9 yds to the IowSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt-2 yds

Tyler Perkins punt for 51 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 15

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 5 yds to the Bayl 24

3rd & 1Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.56

Blake Shapen sacked by Gerry Vaughn and Colby Reeder for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 22

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 5 yds to the IowSt 42

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.85

Jirehl Brock run for 5 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 6 yds to the Bayl 47

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 8 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Jirehl Brock run for 7 yds to the Bayl 32

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Hunter Dekkers run for no gain to the Bayl 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.82

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 8 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 24 yds for a TD, (Jace Gilbert KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Blake Shapen run for 7 yds to the Bayl 17

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 1 yd to the IowSt 26

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.33

Hunter Dekkers pass intercepted Devin Neal return for no gain to the IowSt 36

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.90

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 37

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the IowSt 30

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.60

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the IowSt 33

2nd & 7Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.81

Hunter Dekkers sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 32

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Dimitri Stanley

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tyler Perkins punt for 61 yds, downed at the Bayl 7

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 9

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.63

Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 10 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 14

1st & 15Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.48

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 18 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.60

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 17 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the IowSt 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.26

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.49

Blake Shapen run for no gain to the IowSt 40 for a 1ST down IOWA ST Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Will McDonald IV) to the IowSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 6 yds to the IowSt 19

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.50

Richard Reese run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Deon Silas

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Deon Silas run for 6 yds to the IowSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.95

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 10 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Hunter Dekkers run for 2 yds to the IowSt 43

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.36

Jirehl Brock run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 40

3rd & 11Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.59

Hunter Dekkers sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the IowSt 34

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Tyler Perkins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.18

Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 13 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Craig Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 40

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes

3rd & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.71

Blake Shapen sacked by O'Rien Vance and Will McDonald IV for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 30

4th & 20Punt+2 yds

Issac Power punt for 59 yds , Jaylin Noel returns for 2 yds to the IowSt 13

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 5 yds to the IowSt 18

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the IowSt 20

3rd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.76

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 16 yds to the IowSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Hunter Dekkers run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 35

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.15

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 10 yds to the IowSt 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Jirehl Brock run for 2 yds to the IowSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jirehl Brock run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Hunter Dekkers run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Jaylin Noel

4th & 4Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.02

Hunter Dekkers pass intercepted Christian Morgan return for no gain to the Bayl 36

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the Bayl 44

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.42

Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 8 yds to the IowSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 38 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Miller) to the IowSt 20

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Hunter Dekkers run for 5 yds to the IowSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.83

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 13 yds to the IowSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.22

Hunter Dekkers sacked by Victor Obi for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 27

2nd & 21Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +3.63

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 27 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.98

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 9 yds to the Bayl 37

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Easton Dean

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.57

Jirehl Brock 37 Yd Run (Jace Gilbert Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 16

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.67

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 24

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Craig Williams run for 10 yds to the Bayl 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.18

Craig Williams run for no gain to the Bayl 42

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Issac Power punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Noel at the IowSt 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Easton Dean for 8 yds to the IowSt 26

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 21

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson

3rd & 7Pass Reception+50 ydsPPA +4.31

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 50 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, Roughing Passer (Timothy Dawn) to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Hunter Dekkers run for 1 yd to the Bayl 13

3rd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.90

Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 11 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.32

Hunter Dekkers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 6

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Dimitri Stanley

3rd & 0Penalty-5 yds

IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Tyler Miller) to the Bayl 11

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson

4th & 11Field Goal Good+28 yds

Jace Gilbert 28 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.54

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.26

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 48

Situational Analysis

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
28 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
67%
9 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
0%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Iowa State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
48%
21 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
40%
10 plays
100%
3 plays
3rd
63%
8 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play